Geoff Kipsang a threat to 10k WR ???

I don't doubt that Geoff Kipsang is the real deal, just wanted to take a playful jab at ventolin since he never admitted to being egregiously wrong about how the Olympic 10000m would play out. I mean 26:30?!?!? Come on man.

douglas burke wrote:

he ran phenomenal, with the 10000 world record the only place to try for it is brussells in 9 months on september 7th or hengelo in may, unless he wants to run a world record pace solo at worlds to get away from farah and rupps kick.

* phenomenally

Kapcherop wrote:Kipsang said he is targeting world championship this year in Moscow and I am sure he is not talking about the marathon

that was my assumption too

he'd need to bring his 2"06 down to 2"04 at worst in an early season M to get a shot at the team & that's asking a lot for a 20y ole, but not for track as remember, kennster was still 21y when he ran 26'20wr

10000m is his best bet. Note that his training mate, Jonathan Maiyo-a 2:04 marathoner(59:02 h/m) ran and won 5000m in the African champs last year. And though Maiyo doesn't a 10000m time, he is rumoured to be in sub 27 club. Renato could therefore get him to pace Kipsang later in the year.

sub-27 for maiyo is expected

my gut feeling is that to run 2"05'00 generally requires current speed in region of 27-flat

( some exceptions obviously, but most east africans woud fit this

2"05 is damn fast & needs exceptional speed )

following that, i'd expect

2"04 -> ~ 26'45

( geb ran 2"03'59wr which above indicates 26'45 speed at the time

does anyone think geb woudn't have run a 26'45 that day ??? )

2"03 -> ~ 26'30

i do believe mutai's devastating new york win in '11 was a 2"03-flat calibre performance on a flat course ( ignoring the boston 2"03-flat with wind issues maybe offsetting the difficulty of the course, but that's not a given ) , indicating he couda gone 26'30 that day in a track 10k

not a theory wrote:10k wr

who cares??

perhaps more people than you think ??

maybe you should email his coach with your advice

more efficient time/effort utilisation will be for me to await canova's reawakening from hibernation & ask him as it's 100% likely he knows kipsang &/or his coach & may even be his coach !

and some projections on your calculator ventolin

this is not a calculator solvable problem as it's x-country

this needs more a horse-racing form guide ( a worldwide multi-billion $ industry, so "form" means a lot in sport )

however, main point was an awareness issue

the 1st discussion of this effort on another topic

focused immediately on his 1/2M prospects ignoring the fact his race was 12k, much closer to 10k than 1/2M

posters seemed to have some issue that the 10kwr is unapproachable & either consciously or subconsciously ignored his prospects

how much woud he have had to win the race by before someone realised he has serious 10k wr prospects ???

this is analagous to me posting for years that the current 5k guys aren't weak & there shoud be 1/2 dozen+ under 12'50 given good pacing whereas many here treated 12'50 as some mythical, unapproachable barrier

paris race with ~ 1/2 dozen guys in 12'46 - 12'49 with winner finishing in 54+ finished off any doubters

now, i'm pointing out that 10k isn't weak & just lacks elite circuit races & ambitious pace

( even kennster's 26'43 in '11 had derisory target of 13'25 split, just to suit his "recovery" race - it shoudn't be slower than 13'20 target, ever )

the ole rule of thumb is

10k = 2*5k + 1'00

& if the 2 events have same depth ( which i believe they do - just that lot of 10k guys are running road races - the actual 10k talent pool is probably greater than 5k ), then the equivalents shoud be

12'45 - 12'50 = 26'30 - 26'45

& there shoud be 1/2 dozen+ guys running that for 10k given best pacing

also, as posted earlier, my gut feeling is it takes great speed to run 2"05 or faster & some rough intrinsic current ability shoud be

2"05'00 ->~ 27'00

2"04'30 ->~ 26'52

2"04'00 ->~ 26'45

2"03'30 ->~ 26'37

2"03'00 ->~ 26'30

i'm confident these are ballpark figures & if you get the top M'ers running a perfect track 10k that day instead of their M, i'd expect those sort of times

clearly, the bulk of the 10k talent is employed elsewhere...

ventolin^3 wrote:

from another thread by kapcherop

Beating Geoffrey Mutai by almost a minute means a lot especially that Mutai is in a faily good shape(finished third a week ago-2secs behind the winner). Also the fact that Isaiah Koech came in more than a minute after Kipsang means that this guy is bad news! His performance is only reminiscent of Geoffrey Mutai's 2011 season. He should go for the half marathon world record as well because this could be his best chance. And btw, I think 35:00 is the fastest time ever on that course

note, this course until '10 was the one for kenyan national championships

Some Clarifications:

- The course distance may not be accurate and vary between years.

- The police champ has been getting more competitive since 2007

- Isaiah Koech was targetting to make the police team after he dropped out from Kericho XC

- Police XC was Kipsang's first race since september (Berlin Marathon)

- Mutai is not in top shape yet as he is preparing "something' for the spring. However Kipsang's performance is quite impressive as a 54sec margin victory is one of the biggest margin in a XC competition in Kenya. (I remember Vincent Chepkok winning by almost 2 minutes in a weekend XC few years back).

Kindly

Richard Evans wrote:

Some Clarifications:

- The course distance may not be accurate and vary between years.

- The police champ has been getting more competitive since 2007

- Isaiah Koech was targetting to make the police team after he dropped out from Kericho XC

- Police XC was Kipsang's first race since september (Berlin Marathon)

- Mutai is not in top shape yet as he is preparing "something' for the spring. However Kipsang's performance is quite impressive as a 54sec margin victory is one of the biggest margin in a XC competition in Kenya. (I remember Vincent Chepkok winning by almost 2 minutes in a weekend XC few years back).

Kindly

Thanks Evans for this enlightenement. I pressume you were on the ground when the race took place. I agree the course may not be accurate-meaning it may not be exactly 12km. I know Ngong Race Course very well which doubles up as a horse race course. I do not believe the course distance varies from year to year. It is well marked. The only thing which affects the times however is the height of the grass and muddy conditions during rainy season.

It is good to know Mutai is not in good shape yet because that margin over him is worrying. It seems then than he didn't go all out after Kipsang but still impressive that he beat Isaiah Koech by over 20 seconds.

run_happy wrote:Is anyone else impressed by Asbel Kiprop's 37:03??

it's virtually impossible to quantify, but the guy trains for 1500 ( runs 800 of it ) & in no way can his endurance be expected to "last" perfectly to 10 or 12k off 1500 training

he finished 2'03 behind a likely "26'30" guy currently in a 12k, which woud indicate

~ 28'12 effort run

( if you proportion 2'03 gap to 10k & add it to 26'30 )

but, then hang on, his endurance doesn't "last" anywhere close to 10k ( let alone 12k ) off just 1500 training ( & canova has stated in the past he was chided for not doing enough road work )

so, that theoretical 28'12 shoud be more like low/mid-27 as a starting point if it did

( it's same principle as rudy shoud be theoretically capable of 3'26/3'27 off his likely high-44/high-1'40 london shape, but sub-3'40 woud be expected as actual )

now, at his peak, i reckon asbel had

~ high-46/high-1'42 ability

but with no speed work at this time of year, you have to look for slower 400 & 800s which give a theoretical low/mid-27

i'll call it 27'15

to find matching 400/800 which produce a ~ 27'15 is thankless, but we have some idea of his peak ( above )

some estimates are

47.5 / 1'42.7 -> 27'14.5 , 3'25.7

obviously way out

slow him some more

47.75 / 1'43.1 -> 27'15.0 , 3'26.3

still too quick

48.0 / 1'43.5 -> 27'15.4 , 3'26.9

interesting...

48.25 / 1'43.9 -> 27'15.9 , 3'27.4

the above 2 lines look pretty good to me

ok, i'm going to get a lot of diatribe, but it woudn't surprise me at all if asbel is currently in

low-3'27

shape, with no speed work

i'd suggest he'd not bother with any speedwork & just stick to what he's doing NOW if he wants to chase 1500 times

( meaning giving up ambitions of 800 - with rudy at 1'40, a 1'42 from asbel means nothing to 800 history )

speedwork may not improve this from concomitant loss of endurance...

we are not concerned by actual times, but gaps

it was ~ 12k

NOT 10k or 15k, which is all that's important

previous guy told us

that's news, but not much

he still gets entry into national champs anyhows, which is all that he shoud care about

already stated

eh ?

he's in pretty damn good shape to have run the african champ to within 2s last week & the guy is always in near top shape - his 2"04 was considered subpar, but he got a side-stitch late on which was obvious from tv as he rubbed his side late on

he looked poised for a ~ 2"03-mid at worst prior to that

i have little doubt he is in 2"04-flat/low shape right now, which i'd estimate as current ~ 26'45/26'52 speed

the "something" woud be looking for something substantially off 2"04'00

if you have something from horse's mouth, offer it

NOT in a calibre meet of this quality field & not in last coupla years

upto '10 he was a 12'55 guy which doesn't indicate any crushing ability & even now he's down to "only" 12'51/26'51, albeit that 26'51 shouda been nearer 26'40 off more ambitious pace ( i didn't even bother watching it on live tv when i read they were only aiming for 13'25 split - tivo race )

find it

Interesting speculation, but we have no real idea what shape Mutai is in (outside of cross country) right now. Two me these guys are marathon runners/ cross country runners (sorry for stating the obvious here) and are missing the under distance track races they would need to come close to Bekele/Gebrselassie's times. 26:30 in theory, yeah maybe. 26:17.53 --> still long way to go. Btw, what about Gebremeskel's chances?

no

he finished 2s behind african x-country champ 1/52 ago

that already solidifies current at baseline sub-27

( or go look up lucas' 10k pb before brussels '11 )

moron

mutai chased wilson to the finish in '10 & wilson was ( until this weekend ) best kenyan 10k talent since kemboi '03

idiot

lucas had a 27'33pb before he busted

26'43

what crap "underdistance" you want ???

learn

try paris with 1/2 dozen at 12'46 - 12'49 with 54 end

no

learn idiot

paris with 1/2 dozen at 12'46 - 12'49 with 54 end

applies same to 10k with that talent pool being bigger

he was 12'40 shape at even pace in paris

possibly also 3'30/3'31

he is a komen with less 3k+ endurance

vid of kennster getting hammered on the road not too many years ago ( ?26'43 shape )

that kenyan musta been an imposter !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88_74pGItbM

Given the way that this race went, is there anyone else in the world who could pose a threat to these guys come March (given the Training Camp is not ripping their own athletes apart this time)?

ventolin^3 makes some informed and intelligent comments. The Pre meet is a good venue for a fast 10K. Remember Bekele himself ran something like 26:25 there a few years back.

And it's so true that we don't see many athletes ready to tackle distance records on the track at present. I guess today's top guys are cleaner than the top guys a few years back? YEAH I'm talking through my hat, but what is a fan to think?

I loved El G during his stellar career, but now I wonder how he did it. Bekele and Geb too, and Komen, you have to wonder.

Big Red Miler wrote:

ventolin^3 makes some informed and intelligent comments. The Pre meet is a good venue for a fast 10K. Remember Bekele himself ran something like 26:25 there a few years back.

And it's so true that we don't see many athletes ready to tackle distance records on the track at present. I guess today's top guys are cleaner than the top guys a few years back? YEAH I'm talking through my hat, but what is a fan to think?

I loved El G during his stellar career, but now I wonder how he did it. Bekele and Geb too, and Komen, you have to wonder.

Why do you wonder so much? Seems like a quick answer would be that those guys had better training and development. Is that answer not satisfactory enough?

fhb wrote:

...

Why do you wonder so much? Seems like a quick answer would be that those guys had better training and development. Is that answer not satisfactory enough?

If it was only better training and development then the current athletes would be running faster times because they are using similar training or an improvement of that. All these athletes trained with others and were coached by some of the coaches coaching athletes today. It would only be reasonable that those coaches are producing better athletes. My guess is that the likes of Komen, Haile G, El G, in addition to being top talent, were risk takers, scaling heights never scaled. They were the Wanjirus, Rudishas, Makaus, Mutais and Bolts of yesteryears.

Kapcherop wrote:

fhb wrote:

...

Why do you wonder so much? Seems like a quick answer would be that those guys had better training and development. Is that answer not satisfactory enough?

If it was only better training and development then the current athletes would be running faster times because they are using similar training or an improvement of that. All these athletes trained with others and were coached by some of the coaches coaching athletes today. It would only be reasonable that those coaches are producing better athletes. My guess is that the likes of Komen, Haile G, El G, in addition to being top talent, were risk takers, scaling heights never scaled. They were the Wanjirus, Rudishas, Makaus, Mutais and Bolts of yesteryears.

Hard to know but I would like to see more of the Kenyans take races out hard like they did in the past. The Kenyans and Ethiopians have not been aggressive in recent years. I want to see more races like Bekele's OG 5000 in Beijing. That was great racing.

run_happy wrote:

Is anyone else impressed by Asbel Kiprop's 37:03??

I am. Watching Kiprop run with those spider-thin legs of his I am amazed he is even able to run XC. Seems like any uneven surface could pose a serious threat to his health. Add in that he is the world's best at 1500 and damned good at 800 and this 12k XC result is phenomenal (IMHO).

Kapcherop wrote:

fhb wrote:

...

Why do you wonder so much? Seems like a quick answer would be that those guys had better training and development. Is that answer not satisfactory enough?

If it was only better training and development then the current athletes would be running faster times because they are using similar training or an improvement of that. All these athletes trained with others and were coached by some of the coaches coaching athletes today. It would only be reasonable that those coaches are producing better athletes. My guess is that the likes of Komen, Haile G, El G, in addition to being top talent, were risk takers, scaling heights never scaled. They were the Wanjirus, Rudishas, Makaus, Mutais and Bolts of yesteryears.

How do you know that they trained with others or have the same coaches as athletes today? Didn't El G, Bekele, and Geb train by themselves or only in a small, private group? And what does scaling heights mean?

Kapcherop, yes i was there with some friends from Embakasi.

I Was just clarifying as Kipsang's performance is not a course record since the distance vary and also depends of the measurement and other factors.

Ventolin were you in Kericho ? did you watch the race when John (Mwangangi, who has been taken a lot of wins this winter) and Hosea beated him in a sprint finish ?

Geoffrey is still building. Maybe you should ask his manager whom arrived in Kenya last week. The "something" is directly from Geoffrey's mouth, so just wait until the spring.

Concerning Kipsang, he is clearly a threat if healthy .

Will try to make a preview before nationals with all the forces in presence + those that we have not seen yet (Karoki whom was healing an injury back in Japan, Moses Masai, Clement Langat, Paul Tanui...) but still one month to go and Discovery XC next sunday.