whatthewhat wrote:
my thoughts also wrote:I'd take Cain in 3200 or under on the track any day.
I wouldn't. I'd take Baxter in a 3000/3200 and above.
But Cain would practically lap her in a mile.
So, if Cain could go around 4:30 in a mile right now you are suggesting that Baxter is around a 6:00 miler?
Somehow I don't think your numbers add up.
YES!
dream is over wrote:
they both suck and wont improve at all from their HS times.
There is no way at there best Cain is losing to Baxter in a 3k or 2mile on the track. She ran 4:11. Going out in 435 would be nothing for her. It's like suggesting Webb wouldn't beat Ritz in a 2mile on the track senior year.
Eyeroll wrote:
There is no way at there best Cain is losing to Baxter in a 3k or 2mile on the track. She ran 4:11. Going out in 435 would be nothing for her. It's like suggesting Webb wouldn't beat Ritz in a 2mile on the track senior year.
Well, 4:11 is the 1500m time where she is following behind other runners. I presume that you mean she is going to go 4:35 for 1500. Since she is a mid-D type she might come back in 4:40 or 4:45. That makes a 9:15 3000, which is a 10:00 2-mile. I would guess that a majority here think that Baxter can turn back a 10:00 two-mile without too much problem.
The question is can she run a 9:48 and if so, could Cain run a 4:24/4:24. That is enough faster than your posited 4:35 pace. One the other hand, if you really think she can go out at 4:35 for the mile and keep going, then just keep smoking what you are smoking because her 4:11+ converts to a 4:31.5 mile, and she certainly is going to slow by more than a second a lap.
26mi235 wrote:
Eyeroll wrote:There is no way at there best Cain is losing to Baxter in a 3k or 2mile on the track. She ran 4:11. Going out in 435 would be nothing for her. It's like suggesting Webb wouldn't beat Ritz in a 2mile on the track senior year.
Well, 4:11 is the 1500m time where she is following behind other runners. I presume that you mean she is going to go 4:35 for 1500. Since she is a mid-D type she might come back in 4:40 or 4:45. That makes a 9:15 3000, which is a 10:00 2-mile. I would guess that a majority here think that Baxter can turn back a 10:00 two-mile without too much problem.
The question is can she run a 9:48 and if so, could Cain run a 4:24/4:24. That is enough faster than your posited 4:35 pace. One the other hand, if you really think she can go out at 4:35 for the mile and keep going, then just keep smoking what you are smoking because her 4:11+ converts to a 4:31.5 mile, and she certainly is going to slow by more than a second a lap.
Im sorry but I think you have some basic math problems here. 4:24/4:24 gets a 8:48 not 9:48, Cain could easily split 2 4:52's which is what she would need for the 9:48. She would drop Baxter a few laps in would be my assumption. probably split 4:45/4:50.
L2Math wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Well, 4:11 is the 1500m time where she is following behind other runners. I presume that you mean she is going to go 4:35 for 1500. Since she is a mid-D type she might come back in 4:40 or 4:45. That makes a 9:15 3000, which is a 10:00 2-mile. I would guess that a majority here think that Baxter can turn back a 10:00 two-mile without too much problem.
The question is can she run a 9:48 and if so, could Cain run a 4:24/4:24. That is enough faster than your posited 4:35 pace. One the other hand, if you really think she can go out at 4:35 for the mile and keep going, then just keep smoking what you are smoking because her 4:11+ converts to a 4:31.5 mile, and she certainly is going to slow by more than a second a lap.
Im sorry but I think you have some basic math problems here. 4:24/4:24 gets a 8:48 not 9:48, Cain could easily split 2 4:52's which is what she would need for the 9:48. She would drop Baxter a few laps in would be my assumption. probably split 4:45/4:50.
Typed a bit too quick. 4:54's is what she would need for the 9:48.
Why is Cain in a cross country discussion.
L2Math wrote:
Im sorry but I think you have some basic math problems here. 4:24/4:24 gets a 8:48 not 9:48,
That makes a 3000, not a 2-mile. A 9:48 two-mile is a 9:1x 3000, and it seems like doubling the distance and only slowing from 4:11 to 4:24 is not realistic. Take both the 8% adjustment to 1500/mile // 3000/2-mile and looking at how much runners slow when you double the distance.
Lagat was a 3:26 1500 guy and a 7:28+ 3000 guy when he focus more on distance. Now that is slowing 36 seconds compared to doubling the time. Since Cain's 1500 pace is ~25% slower than 3:26, add 25% to 36 to get 45 seconds. How, add that to 4:11 => 4:31.5 (8%) => 9:03 (doubling) => 9:48 (adding the 45 seconds).
However, Cain is a good 800/1500 runner and has not shown nearly as much of an outstanding nature at 2 miles or 5000m. Thus, she is more likely to slow some. Now, notice that she is only ranked 12th for XC by MileSplit. That tells me that they think that she has not shown the ability at the longer distances as at track middle distances, although some of that is probably that she dos not run as well off the track.
I was thinking more like a high school Ritz v Webb in 2000/2001. Each dominates their specialty. A workhorse versus a thoroughbred.
Cain cruised to a 9:28 3k all by herself her freshman year. That was when she was running in the 4:22-4:25 range for 1500. If she got in a competitive race she could do some damage.
Last year she ran 17:40 at Bowdoin Park, #3 all time behind Aisling Cuffe and Nicole Blood. She just improved 29 seconds this year on the 4k Manhattan course, so I think she is capable of taking down Cuffe's Bowdoin record (17:16) if she ran the course this season (which she won't).
The Milesplit rankings are a joke. It is literally laughable how bad they are. They had Sarah Baxter #5 until this weekend and still have Hagen Reedy ranked 10th, while Alana Hadley is 3rd. Mary Cain is 4th in Dyestat rankings behind Baxter, Neale, and Reedy, and that's only after she's shown herself in one race.
My money is on the runner who has never lost a cross country race in her life... Sarah Baxter.