Rudisha 1500 Prediction?

This fascination with Rudisha is interesting.

The OP didn't ask the question well, though:

Rudisha's 1500 RIGHT NOW, or Rudisha's 1500 AFTER TRAINING?

Although he seems gassed in the last 100 of the 800, that is probably just because he takes it out hard on the first lap. I don't care WHO you are, you can go out hard enough in the first lap of an 800 to die in the second half--it's just a matter of choice in how you are going to run your race.

In my mind, one of the 400, 800, or 1500m distances is the optimum for Rudisha. We know what he has done in the 800, but what about the others? Rudisha himself says that he is interested in "sprinting", and believes that he may have been a good "sprinter" had he had different training ("sprinting" meaning 400m to him). This comment was made in the context of an initiative to improve Kenyan sprinting prospects, so it is not surprising that on that occasion Rudisha didn't offer any insight as to his own ability in the 1500. Has he made any comments in the past?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: what REALLY needs to happen is for both Rudisha AND Bolt to begin competing at the 400m. They should declare their intention early, so that the hype can build for a year, then offer some teaser performances at other distances.

Everybody's always fascinated by both Rudisha and Bolt. Here's a poll: would you rather see: 1) Rudisha compete in the 1500 and Bolt compete in the LJ, or 2) both Rudisha and Bolt compete in the 400?

Last word: Wariner will do absolutely squat in the 800m internationally. His problem in the 400 is not speed, but endurance. If he can't hold it together for 400, no way he's holding it together for a fast 800. WHY would a guy who can go out really early in the season and run a 20.5 rather easily not run the 200 instead? Dude could easily run 20.0 if he tried, which is pretty good in the USA, and respectable in any Diamond League meet. I actually believe he could still go 19.9, which would put him behind only a couple of people in the US--Gay and Dix if they are healthy, for sure--and in the mix with a bunch of good college guys, and Gatlin if he chooses to do the 200. Plus, the 200 is IMO a LOT easier than the 800, which involves actual pain. Think of the training, man!

Borza ran the 1500 in the European Cup when he was at his prime, and he really sucked.

Great point.

Updated 1500m Predictions:

Rudisha's time now?

Rudisha's time after training?

To your point Sprintgeezer, a hyped 400 between Rudisha and Bolt would be great for the sport.

Symmonds even splits around 144. Rudisha negative split 1:42 at altitude.

Hitmonlee wrote:

Symmonds even splits around 144. Rudisha negative split 1:42 at altitude.

Only marginally.

51.2/50.9

Koneko wrote:

Wariner will never be an elite 800 meter runner. No endurance - he'd struggle to break 1:50 right now.

I'm confused. You seem to indicate that Wariner would break 1:50 already without even specifically focusing on it (though you say he would "struggle" - I guess this means he would break a sweat). Yet you don't think he could take off another 4-5 seconds which would make him elite after specifically focusing on it. You're contradicting yourself.

googal wrote:

Wariner is running 45s now training for the 400m. He will lose near a second over the 400 training for the 800 and will actually have less speed over the 400 than rudisha. Wariners 400m best is 43.45 so even at his peak training for the 800 he would be a 44 sec runner. Rudisha runs 44 low in world record shape.

Fascinating reasoning. Wariner's 400m PR is 2 full seconds better than Rudisha's, yet you have somehow convinced yourself that Rudisha is the better 400m runner. Interesting.

Btw, I'm not saying Wariner would beat Rudisha in the 800m. That would be equally ridiculous.

Rudisha will never break 3:43 no matter how much he trains for the 1500.

Rudisha couldn't break 3:40 in a 1500 now.

He's more of a 400/800 guy. It wouldn't work out.

Rudisha is not a real man unless he's able to beat me at Badwater. That's where the real studs are. He would not last 20 miles in that blistering heat.

2012xxx wrote:

[quote]googal wrote:

Fascinating reasoning. Wariner's 400m PR is 2 full seconds better than Rudisha's, yet you have somehow convinced yourself that Rudisha is the better 400m runner..

It is abundantly clear that Wariner is not in PR shape. Not that I'm agreeing with the poster you presume to criticize but the avenue by which you did so was terrible.

heres is the problem with all of you guys saying he can go under 3:30. yes, he is very fast in the 800 but you gotta remember that he is the 400/800 type meaning he uses his speed to get through the 800m. he may not be able to keep that speed in the 1500m meaning he can only win slow 1500m races

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

Koneko wrote:

As I said in another thread - he could run 3:31 RIGHT NOW.

You were wrong in that thread, too.

Listen, he emphasised his point by using UPPER CASE LETTERS, dammit. He must be right.

I would much rather see Rudisha in a 1500.

I don't know how true the quote on the home page a few weeks ago was but it was a convo between Bolt and Rudisha or his coach and it said something about 100 mpw. If he really does that I think it greatly enhances his chances at a good 1500.

This was not the case for Coe. Rudisha is so light and efficient that he could probably run both too.

Hitmonlee wrote:

This was not the case for Coe. Rudisha is so light and efficient that he could probably run both too.

Coe was always an 800/1500 runner, unlike Kipketer & Rudisha who only ran 800m.

Coe won the UK junior 3000m title in 73, was the bronze medallist in the European Junior 1500 in 75, and beat the 1500m WR holder, Bayi, in the Emsley Carr Mile in 77 at the age of 20, before he even broke the British 800 record.

He was never solely an 800 runner.

Kyle Schmidt wrote:

I don't know how true the quote on the home page a few weeks ago was but it was a convo between Bolt and Rudisha or his coach and it said something about 100 mpw. If he really does that I think it greatly enhances his chances at a good 1500.

I'm pretty sure Bolt's coach was simply rounding to the nearest hundred.

If Rudisha can run a 46-47 min 10 mile at lactate threshold pace and with his 800m speed he could run somewhere in the region of 3:22-24.

ElG could only run a 1:47 and he was capable of 48min 10 miler's for a 3:26.

The hard part for Rudisha is training the body for a 46:30 10 miler. It's an advantage for him living in Kenya where every second run is lactate threshold with a plethora of marathon groups to latch onto.

Would be interesting.