you have to take this as specific to the athlete. Centro is now in slightly better 800m shape than ever before, and he won the race, which bodes well for his ability to kick in the Olympics. He may get that major drop at some point, like Webb, but for now he just needs to be in as good or better form as he was at World's last year. Closing in 51 mid should be enough to medal once again if he's close enough at 1100m.
Does anyone know what the 400 split was?
Not sure what Centro's precise split was, but I believe he was with a lead pack that came through 400 in the 52 second range, if the Morton Athletics twitter feed is to be believed.
but webb ran 147 in HIGH SCHOOL/
dfhskhsdkf wrote:
Before 2007, wasn't Webb's PR in the 1:47s?
And with that as his 800m PR, he ran 3:32 for the 1500m and 3:48 for the mile.
1:46.09. He went from 1:46.09 to 1:43.84 in like two 800 races over a month or so.
I'm not worried about Centro only running 1:47, especially coming off an injury. But to hit that next level at the 1500, yeah, he needs to be at least capable of at least 1:43/1:44.
But, just like Lagat's been capable of it, that doesn't mean he needs to actually run it.
With a personal best of 1:46 Centrowitz will contend in any Championship race. No doubt that Lagat could have run 1:44 if he focused on the event but it isn't so much the final 800m closing speed as it is the final 400m. Centrowitz ran roughly 52 seconds last 400m in Daegu and that was just as fast as those who took gold and silver in Kiprop and Kiplagat. What people don't seem to understand is that Centrowitz isn't usually firing on all cylinders until close to 150m to go where he will gradually pass most on the final straight away to grab a medal. When Hicham and Lagat ran close to 1:46 final 800m they were out close to 2 minutes at first 800m. If Centrowitz is out in over 2 minutes for first 800m he can run 1:49 from 700-1500m. And that will be an exceptional race if that happens because the mile this day doesn't have the athletes who will run that fast over the final 800m besides Kiprop and Kiplagat and maybe Laalou of Morocco who has 1:43 800m to his name. The rest will die if they tried to do that from 700m out as even back in 04 Lagat and Hicham were the only ones to go at that pace and hold on and I would take hicham and 04 Lagat over this days milers. Now if Kiprop and Kiplagat were ever so bold to attempt this Centrowitz has intelligence to not go with them and most likely would snag another medal over the final 200m as most will come back. If Centrowitz finds himself in position over the final 400m in London he will medal again.
webber wrote:
dfhskhsdkf wrote:Before 2007, wasn't Webb's PR in the 1:47s?
And with that as his 800m PR, he ran 3:32 for the 1500m and 3:48 for the mile.
1:46.09. He went from 1:46.09 to 1:43.84 in like two 800 races over a month or so.
I'm not worried about Centro only running 1:47, especially coming off an injury. But to hit that next level at the 1500, yeah, he needs to be at least capable of at least 1:43/1:44.
But, just like Lagat's been capable of it, that doesn't mean he needs to actually run it.
Next level? Third in the world wasn't good enough?
thirty-two wrote:
Next level? Third in the world wasn't good enough?
It's awfully good. But it's not the closing in 1:47, expected to win big races, contending for gold kind of level.
3:34 (with maybe 3:32 capability) and winning a smart bronze is great. I'm happy he's there.
But I'd love to see him at that 3:29, winning the gold kind of level. Where Kiprop, Kiplagat and Chepsaba are. Or closing a 3:34 in 1:46 kind of level. Where El G and Lagat were. Those are different levels from where he's at.
And he's young enough that he might just get there. He certainly still appears to have some improvement left.
Lagat (like El-G) never raced 800m in any meaningful way.
1) he maximized income racing 1500m
2) he couldn't beat Kipketer anyway.
His 800m capability was roughly similar
to El-G, figure 1:43
El G's PR is:
800 meters 1:47.18 1995-02-06
Now if Kiprop and Kiplagat were ever so bold to attempt this Centrowitz has intelligence to not go with them and most likely would snag another medal over the final 200m as most will come back. If Centrowitz finds himself in position over the final 400m in London he will medal again.
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No he will not! 1:47 is simply not fast enough! It's not even mediocre and completely non-threatening to his competition. In fact, it sends a message more like, "Oh, that's all you got? then bring it on fool, cuz I'll own your ass for sure!" There are way, way too many guys out there this year who will blow him away like a used Kleenex!
HE HAD DAMN WELL BETTER UP HIS GAME OR CAN FORGET ABOUT EVEN MAKING THE FINAL, MUCHLESS DREAMING OF A MEDAL!
Who does he think he's kidding?
WAKE-UP!
Kipgoey wrote: With a personal best of 1:46 Centrowitz will contend in any Championship race. If Centrowitz finds himself in position over the final 400m in London he will medal again.
Good analysis, but the reason Centrowitz is a threat is that he just may be the best tactical racer in the history of the event.
ggilder wrote:
Kipgoey wrote: With a personal best of 1:46 Centrowitz will contend in any Championship race. If Centrowitz finds himself in position over the final 400m in London he will medal again.Good analysis, but the reason Centrowitz is a threat is that he just may be the best tactical racer in the history of the event.
Reminds me of Ron Delaney (I'm an old fart). Delaney won gold despite being drastically inferior in time to most of his competitors.
spike grant wrote:
El G's PR is:
800 meters 1:47.18 1995-02-06
Doesn't mean shit. Seb Coe has a terrible 5k PR. Some runners don't focus on every event.
Bane wrote:
spike grant wrote:El G's PR is:
800 meters 1:47.18 1995-02-06
Doesn't mean shit. Seb Coe has a terrible 5k PR. Some runners don't focus on every event.
Is centro focussed on the 800 now? Didn't he finish top 10 at NCAA cross? He's a damn fine 1500-later to be-5000 runner who pops in an 800 like Hicham did.