Ritz says he's back in 12:56 shape

Agreed, but I'm going to go with Curtis as the dark horse (or maybe Vaughn unless he's injured).

Frankly, if Ritz says he is in 13:56 shape (in a perfect race) now, then he probably is based on his workouts.

Montesquieu wrote:

The problem with Rupp pushing the pace is that the 5000 is just a couple of days later, and Rupp wants to make the team in both events.[quote]Bill Huntington wrote:

Right, there's too much on the line.

any runner who is building a base and is using racing for speed work is not maxing out.

with the marathon at 2:10 and 5 k at 13:x he's definitely much better that that one off shitty 10k at 27:50.

for the trials ritz will be backing off and peaking.

in a best case scenarion, come trials he will be at sub 13 shape and qualify for the 5 and 10k.

i think he's still a few months from the best case scenario, still i pick him to make the 10k team and the 5k he's good for 6th or something like that.

of course al-sal will know what ritz can run, but even al-sal predictions require the athlete to have a good day

Sagarin wrote:

Frankly, if Ritz says he is in 13:56 shape (in a perfect race) now, then he probably is based on his workouts.

12:56, he says he is in 12:56 shape, not 13:56.

Got that? 12:56.

[quote]

The problem with Rupp pushing the pace is that the 5000 is just a couple of days later, and Rupp wants to make the team in both events.[quote]

Three things: 1) the 5k prelims are about 72 hours after the 10k, and the final 72 hours after that. I think that gives Rupp plenty of time to go at A standard pace to help Ritz and still be recovered for the 5k. 2) The A standard is almost a complete minute slower than Rupp's PR. Its not like he'll be redlining, and the race probably will be around this pace anyway. 3) It's not just the trials, but also the national championships. I can't recall Rupp ever not going for a win at the trials in the 10k in a world championship/olymipc year. Although, to be fair, he could just sit on Ritz and the pack that goes with him, make them do all the work, and just kick for the win. But that just seems cruel for a teammate...

Rupp will be helping a lot more guys than Ritz if he plays that role.

kjrunner70 wrote:

I can't recall Rupp ever not going for a win at the trials in the 10k in a world championship/olymipc year. Although, to be fair, he could just sit on Ritz and the pack that goes with him, make them do all the work, and just kick for the win. But that just seems cruel for a teammate...

That's the only reason I can think of that Rupp might help Ritz--if it helps Rupp win in the process.

the average male runner wrote:

Sagarin wrote:

Frankly, if Ritz says he is in 13:56 shape (in a perfect race) now, then he probably is based on his workouts.

12:56, he says he is in 12:56 shape, not 13:56.

Got that? 12:56.

Yes, most people needed you to make that correction for them. Thank you so much for pointing out the typo. We can all breathe a sigh of relief.

If Ritz is keeping up with Mo and Rupp in workouts as he says he is, then he is, indeed, in 12:56 shape.

Meb holds the Olympic Trials record in 27:36.49 from 2004. In 2008, Abdi won in 27:41, with Rupp in 27:43. All under the A standard. So it's not like it's unprecedented to run the A standard in the trials. Rupp should be fit enough that A standard pace should be a given, and not a problem.

Ritz just has to be sure to be up front and ready to hustle the last mile, and I'm sure he will be. Chances are small that it'll be hot and humid in Eugene like it was in Hengelo that day. Even if it is, he should have improved his fitness enough that he could lop off 5 seconds without a problem.

Some of you short-timers don't remember that the Trials were won in 1980 by Virgin in 27:45, at an uneven pace (on purpose by Virgin). He also led the race for about 16 laps, winning over Salazar who ran 28:10. Salazar was no slouch at the time, he took the semester off from school to make the Oly team, and ran 13:23 and 27:49 at the end of that summer and a 2:09:41 marathon that Fall.

My point is that, as good as Virgin was that year (and he ran 27:29 {#2 all-time performance and performer} and 13:19 that yr or '81) ... Ritz is faster.

I should not need to explain this, but Ritz has run 13:14 recently, and the 13:19/13:58 double. He has run that 27:22 in 2009. I am not making a comparison between Virgin and Ritz, just like Ritz, if things had gone different for Virgin I think he would have run at least 13:06/27:15 if his health had not gotten in the way.

However, Ritz is slightly faster and I think that he will have no trouble breaking 27:45 in the Trials.

What do you think the purpose of the 5k/5k double was? It was not 5k training.

Ignorant buffoon wrote:

So by saying this he's insinuating that he's faster than Rupp right now? Fat chance. I would say Bekele is in 12:56 or under shape now, since he was at 13:00 a week or so ago and finally got his track training underway... However there is a world of difference between Bekele's ability to get in shape and Ritz's . Ritz is very talented as a runner but unfortunately he is quite fragile, which is why he'll never be a good marathoner. He'll get 3rd in the 10K to Rupp and Derrick and get 5th or so in the 5K behind Lagat, Rupp, Lomong, and someone else.

What is wrong with some people on here? No that's not saying he's in better shape than Rupp. He didn't say I could run 12:56 off the same pace Rupp ran his 12:58, huge difference. Rupp is not in 12:58 shape, that's his pr.

Sagarin wrote:

Agreed, but I'm going to go with Curtis as the dark horse (or maybe Vaughn unless he's injured).

Few men have been wrongly predicted to surprise more often than those two.

I don't think I've ever been dialed in to my body enough to know what 5k shape I was in down to the second. 12:56. Is he a wizard?

Rupp is in sub-12:55 shape, probably close to 12:50 in the perfect race. That he trained through a 12:58.9 PR in less than ideal conditions is irrelevant.

a lot of things have to go right for a pr at that level. I agree that Rupp's in shape to run close to the American record now. And Ritz will still have to show that he has the speed to go 12:56: cruising 13:19 before 13:58 does not prove that. I do not doubt the man, but it is hard to gauge relative fitness to that precision years apart from workouts and feel.

runningbroseph wrote:

I don't think I've ever been dialed in to my body enough to know what 5k shape I was in down to the second. 12:56. Is he a wizard?

Did you read the article? He said that he is running the same workouts as his TWO teammates who recently ran 12:56 and 12:58. Also, he just ran 13:14 in a race where Farah (remember the guy he trains with?) won in 13:12. Also, he has ACTUALLY run 12:56, 13:14, 13:15, 13:19, 13:20, etc ... before. Do you think that he might be suited to accurately predict what he can run?

I would say that anyone who can win FL twice and go undefeated for two years in HS is a running wizard. I would say that if you run 13:44 as a senior and 13:27 as a freshman you are a running wizard. I would say that if you had placed 6th in a global Championship in 27:22 that you would be a wizard.

Need me to keep going?

newname wrote:

Did you read the article? He said that he is running the same workouts as his TWO teammates who recently ran 12:56 and 12:58. Also, he just ran 13:14 in a race where Farah (remember the guy he trains with?) won in 13:12. Also, he has ACTUALLY run 12:56, 13:14, 13:15, 13:19, 13:20, etc ... before. Do you think that he might be suited to accurately predict what he can run?

Whoa, don't get so butthurt man. If he runs more than 1 second off that 12:56 I'm gonna be disappointed though and you're gonna have some 'splainin to do.

runningbroseph wrote:

Whoa, don't get so butthurt man. If he runs more than 1 second off that 12:56 I'm gonna be disappointed though and you're gonna have some 'splainin to do.

And perhaps you shouldn't get so butthurt every time someone properly calls you on your bs. If you say something THAT stupid, you should expect to be called out.