I agree. This girl has many years of running ahead of her.
Let the girl finish college... wrote:
JH will do fine at Mammoth, Flag, Dago, or Tucson where the best elite training partners and coaches are today. She's only in college now for Christsakes. Look how well Ryan Hall, Sara Bei, Deena Drossin, Desi Davila, Abdi, and other Los Angeles kids have done.
Seriously, anyone like byebyebaby who can't count and do simple math (twice) and can't get his/her figures right, obviously should be banned from these boards or visit another website where they accept such imbicile comments and arguements. This individual obviously has problems in life and doesn't sleep well at night.
first off, no impartial coach would say she's a gifted 1500-3k type of runner. same thing with ryan hall in college.
coaches who want to maintain their well-paid lifestyle and status run talented kids, like jordan and ryan, in the races which will get the programs wins--not what's best for the runner's ultimate development.
if her goal is to run in an olympic final, then she has to move to a race where she meets the raw speed requirement.
i'm 99% sure she lacks the raw speed to be among world leaders at 5k.
sure, you can have all the endurance, race savvy, and competitive desire you'd ever want, but it's genetic raw speed which punches your ticket to the big show in the 5k.
and she'd probably be able to cut close to a minute off her 5k in 3-4 more years, but it's that last 20-30 additional seconds she won't be able to pull out of her hat because the speed isn't there.
regarding the 10k, maybe she runs 30 minutes in 5 or 6 years.
but it's just as likely she won't. but she should try, because there's a decent chance.
once she's out of school, and stops all short-race focus, spend a few years chipping away at the 10k and see if the times are dropping as you'd like.
if the gains which project her as a world-class probability don't readily happen, then we have a problem.
a special, iron-forged athlete wins 10k's. we'll see how tough she is.
i'll put my chips on her as a marathoner who makes her mark 8 years from now. i see no shortcomings in her to prevent that--outside of the shortcoming (or challenge) just about every marathoner has: surviving the last 30 minutes of the race. but she's got the body suited for the race--that's a big asset.
whirledpeas wrote:
and she'd probably be able to cut close to a minute off her 5k in 3-4 more years, but it's that last 20-30 additional seconds she won't be able to pull out of her hat because the speed isn't there
Let me see if I understand. ... JH's PR at 5k is 15:37.29...... And in 3-4 years she would "probably be able to cut close to a minute off" and that would only be ............AN AMERICAN RECORD!!! And that wouldn't be satisfactory? And the last 20-30 seconds she won't be able to pull off because of her lack of raw speed??? So which is it? She will be able to drop about a minute but the next 20-30 second (which would put her at World Record status) she won't be able to get??? Or is it she won't be able to get the last 20-30 seconds of her drop of a minute in 3-4 years ??? This would be a drop of thirty seconds then. So, in an Olympic year 4 years from now, JH could run 14:3x for 5000 and that wouldnt be enough to keep her in the running for a medal? UGH! I think you need to read what you wrote. Your post doesn't really make much sense the way you stated it. If she ran 14:4x she could be in the hunt for a medal. She could also come in 8th. But it would be very respectful and competitive.
You should have seen it Mom, it was bigger than a relay baton, it was THICK. I would say it was about like this!
i guess i don't have her exact times in my head.
basically, by "close to a minute" i meant 45-55 seconds.
i could see her breaking 15, but medaling would would take 20 seconds better than that. that's a tall order.
For comparison Shalane Flanagan's college PRs were:
4:11.24-1500 m
9:00.22-3000 m
15:20.54-5000 m
When I held it, I thought, "There's NO WAY it's going to fit!"
OP: Hasay is still 20, and doesn't turn 21 until September...
I love Muslim girls
Question to the OP:
Why on earth do you even care? What is JH to you that you would spend all this time posting and then replying. The most obvious answer is a troll... but is it really worth it?
whirledpeas wrote:
first off, no impartial coach would say she's a gifted 1500-3k type of runner. same thing with ryan hall in college.
coaches who want to maintain their well-paid lifestyle and status run talented kids, like jordan and ryan, in the races which will get the programs wins--not what's best for the runner's ultimate development.
if her goal is to run in an olympic final, then she has to move to a race where she meets the raw speed requirement.
i'm 99% sure she lacks the raw speed to be among world leaders at 5k.
sure, you can have all the endurance, race savvy, and competitive desire you'd ever want, but it's genetic raw speed which punches your ticket to the big show in the 5k.
and she'd probably be able to cut close to a minute off her 5k in 3-4 more years, but it's that last 20-30 additional seconds she won't be able to pull out of her hat because the speed isn't there.
regarding the 10k, maybe she runs 30 minutes in 5 or 6 years.
but it's just as likely she won't. but she should try, because there's a decent chance.
once she's out of school, and stops all short-race focus, spend a few years chipping away at the 10k and see if the times are dropping as you'd like.
if the gains which project her as a world-class probability don't readily happen, then we have a problem.
a special, iron-forged athlete wins 10k's. we'll see how tough she is.
i'll put my chips on her as a marathoner who makes her mark 8 years from now. i see no shortcomings in her to prevent that--outside of the shortcoming (or challenge) just about every marathoner has: surviving the last 30 minutes of the race. but she's got the body suited for the race--that's a big asset.
AMEN I agree with you. I'm not saying Jordan Hasay isn't a talented young athlete; however, there comes a time when an athlete needed to look at their progression and know they need to move up. Ryan Hall did it and it's time for Jordan Hasay to do it as well.
All the fans of Jordan Hasay can't honestly say that when she sent the HSR for 1500m 3-4 years later that her personal best would still be over 4:10 for 1500m.
You have such a little appreciation as to the aerobic development it takes to be competitive at the world level in the 10,000 meters.
She doesn't do nearly the mileage or consistency needed to run well at the 10,000. She'll be another post collegiate project where McMillan, Rea, Hudson or whoever, and has to spend the her first 5 years post collegiately getting her to the volume and aerobic development level before she can be competitive on the world level in the longer races.
It is funny to me to see how people think you can just move up in distance once you maxed out your VO2 Max. When in reality it your capacity/aerobic power/aerobic development that takes the longest to develop to an elite level and its VO2 max that can be developed relatively quickly.
Hasay became a young phenom by developing her VO2 Max quickly but as a results is behind in aerobic development if she wants move to the longer races.
I think she's fine in the 1500 and 5k. I don't think those will be her best events in the future but I think it's good for her to work on her speed in those events right now. I don't think a 20 year old girl should be running the mileage it takes to be a competitive 10k runner.
The only way she can improve her "top end speed" is to somehow magically alter her ratio of fast twitch/slow twitch muscle fibers. She may, however, be able to improve her top end strength through training and physical maturity.
didn't she grow 5 inches or something like that last year? To have a massive body change and still PR (I think) is pretty good.
In the end, predicting who will come out of college and make it as a pro is...next to impossible.
For every obvious Rupp or Kipyego there is an unlikely Lagat or Anna Pierce.
And then there are top college people who don't carry on - Bizzarri and Nilsson (2005 individual champ) have either underperformed as pros or apparently quit.
this from lrc boards 2005, on the disappeared Nilsson:
She is more than a great runner, she is amazing, probably the best talent that has been in the NCAA in a long time (at least distance). Pulling off the mile/3k double is much harder than a 5k/3k, though she probably could have won all three if she wanted. The fact is, she won the mile in a time faster than what was won last year, and the 3k was also faster than last year. So, for this being a down year, thats pretty hard to believe. This is a girl who broke Shalane Flannagan's course record, one that Kim Smith did not break, in cross country. That being said she deserves a lot more credit than she is given because running a 9:06 3k after running a mile that was closed in 2:12, I'd say thats amazing. Think about that.
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=1258352&page=0#ixzz1qKs3JrFG
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Please stop mentioning Lagat as someone who didn't achieve much in college. In 1998 Bernard Lagat won the NCAA Indoor Mile and 3000m and then added the 5000m outdoors. He was top 10 at the NCAA 10000m Cross Country Championships and he did this all with low mileage. Bernard Lagat has admitted as a 5000m man NOW he only occassionally surpasses 85 miles.
Jordan Hasay has been logging good mileage for a 1500m runner since high school and I'm not saying she isn't good; however, she has stalled and should concentrate on the track race she has the best future in the 10000m. Yes she can improve her 1500m but it's coming at such small increments that she should start focusing her training and gain ALITTLE more experience in the 5000m and 10000m.
ByeByeBaby wrote:
Please stop mentioning Lagat as someone who didn't achieve much in college. In 1998 Bernard Lagat won the NCAA Indoor Mile and 3000m and then added the 5000m outdoors.
would you be surprised of Chris O'Hare, the 2012 NCAA indoor mile champ, ran 3:26 and the 1500 and the 5000 at the outdoor world champs? Or Lawi Lalang, for that matter?
You're talking straight foolish now! I don't know what mileage Chris O'Hare runs but I'm sure it's alot more then the low mileage Bernard ran during college and still won NCAA Championships.
Chis O'Hare and Jordan Hasay both definitely run more mileage then Bernard Lagat; therefore, the probability of a great improvement is as likely as Bernard. Chris O'Hare isn't the topic of this discussion in case you suffer from A.D.D. JORDAN HASAY is the topic!