Why did you omit the punctuation mark?
Why did you omit the punctuation mark?
The US economy doesn't exist in a vacuum. If there are major problems the circumstances in other countries will be much more dire. Even if our standards of living lower drastically we will consider ourselves lucky as we watch billions starve and countries with brittle institutions fall into chaos.
The most important factor in getting through difficult times is having strong institutions and cooperation between people. Instead of building up piles of weapons and buying land we really should be spending our time building up our connections with others. Humans aren't social beings just for fun - we're social because cooperation with others has allowed a weak, slow, and relatively defenseless ape to rise to the top of the foodchain.
serious as a heart attack wrote:
We purchased a house outright recently--in a lower to middle income neighborhood. It's a rental now but if the world falls apart (we are self-employed), then we will always have a place to live that no one can ever take.
Don't ask me about food and utilities. Maybe chickens, a well and fire?
Your home can be taken. If you can't pay your property taxes or whatever 'fee' the government decides you need to pay.
live like a mexican[quote]
I already gave up and moved to a country with lots of oil, 3.6% unemployment and plenty of hot women. I do miss cheap beer though........
Crow with Knife wrote:
Your home can be taken. If you can't pay your property taxes or whatever 'fee' the government decides you need to pay.
True. We figure we will always be able to find some way to pay $1000 per year in property taxes. Remember I said this was a lower to middle income neighborhood. Property taxes are low.
Die and then live in Heaven (where there is plenty of food and money...obviously). Ha ha, suckers.
Neb wrote:
The US economy doesn't exist in a vacuum. If there are major problems the circumstances in other countries will be much more dire. Even if our standards of living lower drastically we will consider ourselves lucky as we watch billions starve and countries with brittle institutions fall into chaos.
The most important factor in getting through difficult times is having strong institutions and cooperation between people. Instead of building up piles of weapons and buying land we really should be spending our time building up our connections with others. Humans aren't social beings just for fun - we're social because cooperation with others has allowed a weak, slow, and relatively defenseless ape to rise to the top of the foodchain.
America is the caboose, not the engine of the global economy. The rest of the world is going to be far better off without the burden of subsidizing America's consumption. And your mistaken views about human interdependence are going to have disastrous consequences for you and everyone who thinks like you. As inflation takes off and people become desperate, they will resort to crime, not cooperation.
Racehorse wrote:
If the economy tanks, what good would it be to have stocks? Better to invest in land and guns.
Umm...the economy tanked in 2009...and it has come back and is still getting stronger. Same would happen if it tanks again. Unless you are within 10 years of retirement, big deal.
The New UncleB wrote:
Inquiring wrote:.And what exactly is the Flagpole Plan?
Talk a bunch of nonsense while presenting oneself as a financial expert, effectively fooling quite a few naive letsrun posters
1) I am a financial expert (personal finance).
2) Glad to know that living well within your means and investing 15% of your income and buying only fixed-rate mortgages that you can actually afford (25% of your take home pay) and having an emergency fund in place is a "bunch of nonsense". Thanks for the tip.
Uncle B is just a reactionary troll.
How living within your means and saving money can be seen as "non-sense" is beyond me.
Guess it's better to spend more than you make and rack up HUGE debts?
bury my head in the sand now and hope for the best later.
judgment day wrote:
Im finding some good land and living off of it. While at the same time securing it so nobody tries to take my stuff or kill me.
Economy tanks in the next 3-5 years?
Apart from the American super-rich living high on the hog, my impression is that the US economy is dying and your middle class is being systematically wiped out.
Incidentally, back in 1976, the top 1 percent of earners in the United States took in 8.9 percent of all income.
By 2007, that number had risen to 23.5 percent - and is greater in 2011.
Debt was the problem, about one year ago the US government raised it's debt limit level to $14 Trillion, thinking that would keep the ship afloat for a good many years!
Considering that your government had raised the debt ceiling 10 times in 10 years - some hope.
It’s now nearly $15 trillion and increases around $19 million every hour.
But all that may pale as the major liability soon.
Have you been watching events in North Africa and the Middle East?
One of the quickest ways to finally bring down the U.S. economy would be to dramatically increase the price of oil.
Oil is the lifeblood of your (and our) economic system.
Without it, entire economies would come to a grinding halt.
Almost every type of economic activity in our countries depends on oil, and even a small rise in the price of oil can have a dramatic impact on economic growth.
Brent crude just hit $108 a barrel and the UN says that the global price of food recently hit a new all-time high.
So, expect the price of basics such as food and petrol to rise substantially.
The oil price has shot up because of events in Libya - who produce a mere 1.6 million barrels a day.
That alone has meant that the petrol (gas) price in Britain is now around $8 a gallon!
Imagine what’ll happen if the ‘revolution’ strikes in Kuwait, 2.5 million barrels a day or disastrously, in Saudi Arabia, 8.4 million barrels a day!
The forecast then is $200 a barrel.
I’d plan to put your survival plan into operation within a lesser time scale than 3 years.
Gold, lol !! Explain how gold by any measure is help you?
Rational Economist wrote:
America is the caboose, not the engine of the global economy. The rest of the world is going to be far better off without the burden of subsidizing America's consumption. And your mistaken views about human interdependence are going to have disastrous consequences for you and everyone who thinks like you. As inflation takes off and people become desperate, they will resort to crime, not cooperation.
I guess it depends what you think will drive future economic problems. I think it's the cost of energy and food. Given that developing economies are more sensitive to price hikes for food & energy they will feel the pain first and most deeply. Higher costs for Americans simply means fewer trips to Disney World - at least at first.
Yes, of course people are going to become desperate if we have high inflation - but what kind of communities do you think will have a better chance of lasting - those where communities cooperate to help each other survive and fight against crime? Or communities where it's every man for himself?
In combat numbers count for a lot - even criminals under such circumstances will start to form groups. Not to mention that you have a better chance of feeding your family if you are a part of a social group then a "self-sustaining" farm. What happens if your crop fails? If you don't have friends you starve.
All you people have tunnel vision. You look at one unfathomably large number and say that it will be the end of America, without even looking at the unfathomably large size of the economy. Public debt is at 60%, which is on par with other large countries like France, Germany, and your United Kingdom.
If you want to look at the big picture, then you also have to look at the emerging market, particularly China and the systemic troubles therein. The market capital of China's real estate market is what 30, 40 times GDP? This would make it much larger than Japan's bubble during the 80s and a 1000 times larger than the one in Dubai. It is also the largest importer of oil, and greatly subsidizes gas prices. It has held interest rates at near zero for a decade. Most of its state owned companies rely on low interest rates to continue to do business and wouldn't be able to build unused skyscraper if it didn't. China also has a much higher cost of borrowing than the US does. Soaring inflation has been met with it's central bank has been using RESERVE REQUIREMENTS to slow the economy. Our Fed uses a scalpel to operate, they use a sledge hammer. They had a stimulus twice as large as ours during the great recession.
$150 oil would cause their economy to collapse, resulting in commodity prices to collapse. Americans might have a couple tough months, but they will rebound quite quickly. China's bloated economy cannot sustain those types of prices.
TCB wrote:
All you people have tunnel vision. You look at one unfathomably large number and say that it will be the end of America, without even looking at the unfathomably large size of the economy. Public debt is at 60%, which is on par with other large countries like France, Germany, and your United Kingdom.
You also focus on a single number, GDP, without looking at what kind of economic activity that number comprises. The current "size" of our economy is the result of a dangerous and totally unsustainable imbalance between consumption and production. We consume far more than we produce, and pay the difference with IOUs that we cannot honor. The mere perception by foreigners that we will not be able to pay our debts will cause them to stop lending to us, and the GDP will contract violently. Then you will see the real size of the US economy.
Neb wrote:
Yes, of course people are going to become desperate if we have high inflation - but what kind of communities do you think will have a better chance of lasting - those where communities cooperate to help each other survive and fight against crime? Or communities where it's every man for himself?
I don't doubt that people will band together into close-knit groups during hard times, but it will not be anything like the orgy of societal brother-love that you are envisioning. People will only be willing to help others within their own spheres - people they know and trust. When there are few resources to go around, the result is intense competition for those resources, not an outpouring of love and compassion for strangers. Human nature is selfish and people will do what is in their own best interest first. When they can barely afford to sustain their own lives, they will not generally sacrifice for others apart from people whose lives they value more than their own. You are in for some rude surprises when you see how most people will react to a dramatically lower standard of living. It may not be every man for himself, but it will be every clique for itself.
Surprise! wrote:
judgment day wrote:Im finding some good land and living off of it. While at the same time securing it so nobody tries to take my stuff or kill me.
Are you really? Or are you just saying that?
Me, I'm going to do what everyone else will do. Lower my standard of living.
__________________________________________________________
You don't think hunting and skinning squirrels isn't a lower standard of living?
I plan to do similar. Moving to Tennessee, buying a couple of acres and growing crops. It'll supplement my diet of beer and chips.
I am a little concerned about the gun bit. I'm afraid if I leave it around the house my Wife will shoot me. Or I will shoot her.
giver upper wrote:
I already gave up and moved to a country with lots of oil, 3.6% unemployment and plenty of hot women. I do miss cheap beer though........
Hot. Do you mean as in sweaty?
It could be Dubai.
I'd stay away from there