Willis moving up to 5000m

This has been posted before: Willis holds the UM school record in the 5000m. He ran 13:27.54 in 2005. I think people should take him a little more seriously in terms of being a sub-13:00 threat.

frank horwill has a theory, read it in frank horwill articles #8

3 x 1500 time & 3 minutes = 5k time, for poor endurance.

3 x 1500 & 2:30 minutes = 5k time, good endurance.

3 x 1500 & 2:15 = 5k time, excellent endurance.

so nick willis

3:32 x 3 = 10:36

3:32 for 1500 x 3 $ 3 minutes = 13:36 for 5k, poor endurance.

10:36 & 2 :30 = 13:06, good endurance

10:36 & 2:15 = 12:51, excellent endurance

2 notes must mean current 1500 time.

k. bekele also a best 1500 of 3:32 and a 5k time of 12:37 = 3 x 1500 & 2:01 &would be beyond excellent, off the charts.

Record keeper wrote:

This has been posted before: Willis holds the UM school record in the 5000m. He ran 13:27.54 in 2005. I think people should take him a little more seriously in terms of being a sub-13:00 threat.

Results of the 2005 NCAA Outdoor 5000m:

1. Ryan Hall, Stanford 13:22.32

2. Ian Dobson, Stanford 13:22.54

3. Nick Willis, U-M 13:27.54

4. Brent Vaughn, Colorado 13:40.11

5. Matt Tegenkamp, Wisconsin 13:41.07

6. Robert Cheseret, Arizona 13:41.88

7. Ed Moran, William & Mary 13:46.99

8. Chris Solinsky, Wisconsin 13:51.36

9. Shadrack Songok, Texas A&M 13:54.63

10. Kevin Chelimo, Texas Tech 13:59.87

11. Stephen Haas, Indiana 14:05.74

12. Eric Logsdon, Oregon 14:20.21

13. Chris Emme, Stanford 14:29.30

People tell me that Solinsky fellow that he beat by 24 seconds is pretty good.

Record keeper wrote:

Results of the 2005 NCAA Outdoor 5000m:

1. Ryan Hall, Stanford 13:22.32

2. Ian Dobson, Stanford 13:22.54

3. Nick Willis, U-M 13:27.54

He got outkicked by 5 seconds with a 13:27.

How slow does he expect the pace to be when he outkicks the Africans?

amazing kick wrote:

He got outkicked by 5 seconds with a 13:27.

How slow does he expect the pace to be when he outkicks the Africans?

some people make you want to pull your hair out...

number 1) he didn't get outkicked, this was his first time under 13:40 having easily kicked away from the regional field, he ran too conservatively early being inexperienced and let hall and Dobson get away from him (they both ran gigantic PRs that no one was expecting)...he closed extremely well in the last 400 but the gap was way too much but the only thing for certain about his race there was his ability to go faster

number 2) this is the last 5000 hes...aka the last one in 6 years, since then he has won an olympic silver and has a commonwealth title...do you really think that performance is indicative of his current ability even if he had been fully extended?

after writing all this i realize i must have been trolled, because no one who cares enough about running to visit this board would not know this simple shit

i see

number 1) he could have run faster

number 2) he's not run another one for six years

therefore .........

he's going to beat all the africans

there is virtually no chance of him running 13'00

at his 1500 peak, he looked capable of 3'31 ( peking ) & probably had 1'44.0 - 1'44.5 speed at the time ( ramzi & kiprop ahead had/later had 1'44 & 1'43 speed & willis chased them hard )

trying :

http://www.jundo.co.uk/

with 3'31

( for indication of 5k potential a coupla years ago )

1'44.0 ->13'25.5

1'44.5 ->13'19.5

which compares well with his 13'27pb

he is gifted in that he appears to be one of the few 1500 guys who's endurance seems to extend close to perfection to the 5k, just off 1500 training

however, training for 5k, his 1500 is going to slow & his 800 more such ( speed has to be sacrificed for endurance )

i'd reckon somewhere around

1'46.0 - 1'46.5 / 3'33 woud be a start for his shorter distance ability when he is a "true" 5k guy

1'46.0 ->13'21.0

1'46.5 ->13'15.0

i can see him getting down to about 13'15, but i'd be pretty shocked if he got below 13'10, let alone 13-flat

what a load of bollocks... when Willis first went to Michigan he had to work hard to convince them he was not a 10km runner, and was quoted as such.

In that NCAA 5km, Willis had had ~12 weeks off for a stress fracture and wanted to target his 1500m form around the european season, so basically just used the 5km training to build his strength... so his one attempt was not even full tilt.

He also, pulled up for silver against alot of "faster" 1500m guys at Olympics... do you think this points to endurance?

He also finished top 10-12 at NCAA XC champs, when did Teg, Solinsky do appreciably better than this?

Please.

You people sit here and think Rupp is going to sail under 13minutes and have the ignorance to believe that the Olympic silver medalist at 1500m could not threaten this.

tripe detector wrote:He also, pulled up for silver against alot of "faster" 1500m guys at Olympics... do you think this points to endurance?

i very much doubt there were many "faster" guys in that race ( apart from ramzi/asbel )

running 3'34 in a tactical race in hot conditions means he musta been helluva lot quicker if it had been a circuit race on a coolish day

at worst a 3'31 & there weren't too many of those in that race

tripe detector wrote:

what a load of bollocks... when Willis first went to Michigan he had to work hard to convince them he was not a 10km runner, and was quoted as such.

In that NCAA 5km, Willis had had ~12 weeks off for a stress fracture and wanted to target his 1500m form around the european season, so basically just used the 5km training to build his strength... so his one attempt was not even full tilt.

He also, pulled up for silver against alot of "faster" 1500m guys at Olympics... do you think this points to endurance?

He also finished top 10-12 at NCAA XC champs, when did Teg, Solinsky do appreciably better than this?

Please.

You people sit here and think Rupp is going to sail under 13minutes and have the ignorance to believe that the Olympic silver medalist at 1500m could not threaten this.

I am an "idiot detector," and you are a certified idiot.

First, no one injected Rupp into this discussion but you.

Second, "you people?" WTF?

A few people here have rooted for and hoped Rupp could dip under 13:00 this year. He didn't. Did they pull out their hair? No.

Rupp has consistently been 1-2 years behind where some people hope he will be -- and he ALWAYS get's there.

Stick to your Willis willy sucking and leave bashing Rupp's fans out of this.

Personally, I hope Willis does well. And I hope Rupp does well, and Solinsky, and Teg, and Ritz, and Evan, and, and, and, and...

The rest of you can just grow up with your individual athlete hate.

Ask this guy about moving up in distance.

Here's a video of Willis speaking about moving up to 5000m, just after the Commonwealth 1500 final. The relevant part is from 1:42 to 2:38. He says his focus on 800m/1500m over the past few years was only because his knee prevented him from doing more than 50-60 miles per week, but now that he's healthy he was able to do six weeks of 80-100 mpw (not clear exactly how much), which is the level he thinks he'll need to do well at 5000m. He also says he'll run a 5k in February or March of 2011 (maybe at one of the Australian GP meets? I'm just guessing).

http://sweatscience.com/relay-dq-pole-vault-double-bronze-in-delhi/

Ventolin,

Can you do a similar 5000 analysis for Webb?

Two words. Dave Moorcroft.

amazing kick wrote:

i see

number 1) he could have run faster

number 2) he's not run another one for six years

therefore .........

he's going to beat all the africans

not saying he necessarily will beat all the africans just that your argument that the 2005 NCAA 5000 closes off any possibility that he could be competitive internationally in the 5000 was pretty much the dumbest thing on this thread so far

in my opinion if Willis started with the 5000 now hed be between 12:03 and 13:03 in 3 years and have a chance at medaling in any race over 13:20...

certainly no ones saying he will challenge the world record and I doubt Willis has any such delusions

bingo jim wrote:

Two words. Dave Moorcroft.

I'm pretty sure Moorcroft's fastest 800 was 1:48.

bingo jim wrote:Two words. Dave Moorcroft.

moorcroft before '82 was a racer, not clock-chaser

his best 1500 wasn't much better than about 3'35 before '82 ( winning the '78 CG ) & in '82 he upped it to 3'49 in the mile

you can't really extrapolate times when you don't have any flat-out figures to work with, so his baseline 5k potential before '82 is not really analyzable

checking back wrote:I'm pretty sure Moorcroft's fastest 800 was 1:48.

1'46.64 in '82

Rice bowl wrote:

Ventolin,

Can you do a similar 5000 analysis for Webb?

webb leading into '08 had the basis for a fantastic 1500

he had run in consecutive years 1'43.8 & near 27'30

obviously they weren't run in simultaneous shape for both, but the plan obviously was to have got as close as possible to having both 1'43 speed & 27'30 endurance in '08

that wouda meant

~ high-3'26/low-3'27 potential

if webb had got the above right in '08 & not got injured, he wouda blown away that peking field, probably with a coruscating push from about 500 - 600m out ( he also couda won it with a last lap sprint )

we will see very few athletes as talented as webb in a lifetime