Has everyone forgotten that Belichick was caught videotaping division opponents???? Most people probably forgot about that b/c all he was given was a slap on the wrist. Between videotaping opponents, throwing 50 yard bombs to Moss every other down, the Doug Flute drop kick extra point a few years back in a loss to the Dolphins, and now this...Belichick has no respect for the game.
You guys are missing the point. I am NOT NOT NOT a Patriots fan (a f'n Bills fan!). But if you think for an instance that this shows the demise of the Patriots...well let's just say you'll be sorely disappointed.
The Patriots DOMINATED this game and blew it. Should they meet in the playoffs, the Colts secondary better get healthy or this will be a blowout..in the Patriots favor. The Pats turned it over twice deep in Colts territory (even at the ONE). The Colts made mistakes too that probably won't happen (drops by garcon...) but the Pats thoroughly had their way and there is no reason to believe the Colts will win come playoff time.
I hate the Pats and the call really seemed crazy at first, to risk giving Manning a short field.
But they probably had a an even 50% chance of making that play which would have nearly sealed the game.
After missing it they still had another chance of preventing them to get into the endzone from there.
That's two solid chances to win.
If they punt the Colts would have to drive maybe 80 yards in two minutes.
The Pats would then have one chance to win. Stop the Colts.
And the way the Colts were playing at that point, it seemed more likely than not that they would score.
I think statistically he made the right call.
And he felt better bout Brady picking up two yards then he did his defense defending the whole field.
lumpyspun wrote:
Has everyone forgotten that Belichick was caught videotaping division opponents???? Most people probably forgot about that b/c all he was given was a slap on the wrist. Between videotaping opponents, throwing 50 yard bombs to Moss every other down, the Doug Flute drop kick extra point a few years back in a loss to the Dolphins, and now this...Belichick has no respect for the game.
What has been the Patriots record since Belichick stopped videotaping? 35-9!! And that includes a year without Tom Brady. Clearly, the videotaping was not the reason the Pats have been so successful under Belichick. That was the most overblown scandal ever.
As far as Belichick being arrogant, well maybe he is. I don't know the man personally. But what I do know is that all these d-bags around the country who hate Belichick would be more than happy to have him coach their crappy team.
The guy is a winner. The NFL is about winning, not being popular.
Statistically he made the right call???
That's assinine. Going 70-80 yards for a touchdown has at best a 30-40% probability of happening. In this game, the colts got intercepted twice, and had to punt 7 times (vs 5 scores, counting the last). So going into the final drive, they had 4 touchdowns in 13 possesions- or 31%. How a supposed defensive mastermind is scared of those odds is beyond me.
Nobody was claiming that the videotaping is the reason for their success. Obviously the 22 people the Pats line up each Sunday are usually better than the other team's.
The argument is that Belechick has no respect for the game. Videotaping your division opponents when you clearly know it is against the rules is not the most "overblown scandal ever."
You need to consider that the Colts scoring from 30 yards out wasn't a 100% chance. The defense still had a solid chance to stop them for the win.
But choosing to go for it vs. punting gave them 2 chances to win (offense OR defense) vs one (defense).
I had the Patriots plus 3 last night and will take them if they face indy in the playoffs. They will score 50 next game. The Colts will not go far with no running attack.
lumpyspun wrote:
Nobody was claiming that the videotaping is the reason for their success. Obviously the 22 people the Pats line up each Sunday are usually better than the other team's.
The argument is that Belechick has no respect for the game. Videotaping your division opponents when you clearly know it is against the rules is not the most "overblown scandal ever."
Maybe not you, but plenty of people claim the videotaping was a big reason for their success (at least until the Pats just kept on winning without it).
No respect for the game? What the hell does that mean? He wants to win, like everyone, and he felt it was not against the rules. His biggest mistake was not stopping after the NFL warned him, even though to this day I think he believes it was not clearly banned. The rule is silly, because basically you can have coaches sit in the box and write down every opposing team's signal (and what transpires on the ensuing play), analyze the notes at half time, or whenever, and then try to read the opposing team's calls from then on. THAT is perfectly legal. But not if you videotape it.
Why did Belichick videotape it? Because he's a control freak who didn't completely trust his assistants to correctly interpret what they saw. He needed to see it for himself. That is Belichick's big crime in all this. 99.9% of NFL fans do not even understand what happened. Belichick and the Pats were fined, not so much because it gave them some huge advantage, but because the NFL powers to be claimed they had ruled on this and the Patriots blew them off (the Patriots dispute that the NFL was completely clear the first time). The fine was for insubordination, more than anything.
To this day, every team in the NFL tries to 'steal' the opposing team's signals. Yet in your world, that is 'disrespecting the game', as if the game of professional football is some paragon of virtue.
toro wrote:
You need to consider that the Colts scoring from 30 yards out wasn't a 100% chance. The defense still had a solid chance to stop them for the win.
But choosing to go for it vs. punting gave them 2 chances to win (offense OR defense) vs one (defense).
That's not how it works. Let's say I have a chance to win a million dollars; I can either make one of two half court shots, or make one free throw. Should I decide to take the half court shots because I have two chances to win?
If you have a choice between two lottery tickets with 1% chance of winning a certain amount, and one lottery ticket with a 30% chance of winning the same amount, you're better off with the one ticket. It's about the odds, not the chances.
F = Probability of converting on fourth down
L = Probability of long touchdown
S = Probability of short touchdown
F + (1 - F)*(1 - S) > (1 - L), or
F + (1 - F)*(1 - S) - (1 - L) > 0
If this equation holds under your assumptions for the different probabilities, then it was a good decision.
the beginning of the end? wrote:Belichick will have the Pats ready for the playoffs at 13-3 or 12-4 (if they can't beat the Saints in the dome) and they'll be ready to have a long playoff run.
LOL
With 13 seconds remaninig New Orleans connection Newman High School (Peyton Manning)to John Ehret High School (Reggie Wayne) for the win .
nice call wrote:
What a horrible decision to go for it on fourth down. Belichick will pull his tough guy schtick and not explain himself, but it shows he has no faith in his defense. This could be the beginning of the end for the Pats.
Belichick must have thought he was playing Madden or something. Horrible call. If he was smart, he would have A.) punted the ball or B.) thrown a deeper pass. No way should you disrespect a passing D with a 1.5 yard pass on 4th and 2. He's such a scumbag and I'm glad he lost and Peyton Manning got to win the game.
atownrunnin wrote: If he'd had a challenge he would have used it, of course, but the call and the spot are correct.No. Pats had no more timeouts with which to challenge.
Given:
F = Probability of converting on fourth down = 50%
L = Probability of long touchdown = 40%
S = Probability of short touchdown = 70%
Going for it on 4th down calculated by F + (1 - F)*(1 - S) gives you a 65% chance of winning
And punting gives you a 60% chance of winning.
If the given percentages are reasonable then going for it would give the better chance of winning.
I love how arrogance can come back and bite you in the ass. Thanks Belichick!
Toro- I still think pats made the wrong call, although looking at how the numbers play out makes me think it's a closer call than I initially thought. The reason I think it's wrong:
I think 50% is optimistic for 4th down conversions. Granted, they were 50% on the nose (5/10) before this last one, but I would guess (don't know, or care to spend the time to look it up) that most of the made ones were 4th and inches, not 4th and 2. 4th and inches is a lot easier to make- can sneak, run, or pass, and the defense has to respect all 3; whereas with 4th and 2 most teams are passing, and the defense is playing pass. So I'd give them 40% chance of making it.
Also, I think the probability of a long TD is more like 30%, not 40%, which is what the colts were doing the rest of the game up till then.
Probability of short TD? who knows, but I can live with the 70% put out there.
So, F = .4, L = .3, and S = .7, it changes to 58% chance of winning with going for it, vs 70% chance of winning by punting and making them drive the distance.
Advanced NFL stats says it was the right call:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html
That's definately a fair way of looking at it. The numbers can easily favor punting. 70% is legit.
It really seemed to come down to a concern of giving it back to the Colts anywhere on the field with 2 minutes the go with the momentum they had gained.
You see they had no problem from 29 yards out.
If you punt and still give up the score than you lose the "right" way, conventionally speaking.
I am sure Colts fans were nervous on that 4th down and were hoping for a punt (but obviously glad with the result).
The Bare Facts wrote:
What I saw last night tells me the Patriots are a better team than the Colts
Tell me what you say that tells you the Patriots are better. What I saw showed a 35-34 Colts win. I saw two Patriots turnovers, bad coaching and atrocious defense (21 points in the fourth quarter).
The Patriots seem to be getting better each week, and the Colts seem to be hanging on.
That's fantastic spin. The Patriots won last week and lost this week, but they're getting better each week? All the Colts can do is hang on, they're doing nothing but win.
Whoever said Denver is better than the Patriots has apparently missed the newsflash that the Broncos lost to the crappy Redskins yesterday and are in a freefall right now. The Broncos at 6-0 were like the subprime housing market.
Yes, I agree that the Patriots are probably better (and I said that the Broncos are better). I don't see, still, how the Patriots are one of the three best teams in football. There are four teams with better records, and five other teams with the same record.