Toro- I still think pats made the wrong call, although looking at how the numbers play out makes me think it's a closer call than I initially thought. The reason I think it's wrong:
I think 50% is optimistic for 4th down conversions. Granted, they were 50% on the nose (5/10) before this last one, but I would guess (don't know, or care to spend the time to look it up) that most of the made ones were 4th and inches, not 4th and 2. 4th and inches is a lot easier to make- can sneak, run, or pass, and the defense has to respect all 3; whereas with 4th and 2 most teams are passing, and the defense is playing pass. So I'd give them 40% chance of making it.
Also, I think the probability of a long TD is more like 30%, not 40%, which is what the colts were doing the rest of the game up till then.
Probability of short TD? who knows, but I can live with the 70% put out there.
So, F = .4, L = .3, and S = .7, it changes to 58% chance of winning with going for it, vs 70% chance of winning by punting and making them drive the distance.