I say Bolt is a lock because of how convincingly he beat a stud line up at Berlin and Beijing. Tyson Gay and Asafa Powell are both former WR holders. Bolt not only beat them, but broke what many thought to be the limits of human physiology.
No doubt Bekele is a huge star in distance events. There is no way a distance runner will outshine a sprinter. Heck, just look at the dedication of television times during broadcasts.
As far as the amount of victories goes, nobody gives a sh!t. In track and field/cross country it is about hitting that peak during the championship season. Its not about beating a bunch of tomato cans before hand. You have to dedicate yourself to one championship performance. Bolt did that on the biggest stage of all and he will be rewarded for it.
Bolt in the 400m? He ran 45.X as a 20 year old. With his stride length and pure speed I see now reason why he can't take this event over as well. Jeremy Warriner has fallen off and Lashawn Merritt is steady at high 43, low 44. The door is open for Bolt.