Puskedra wins, Derrick wins, and overrated German F is quickly falling behind

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

Who cares? It's one season of X-C. The guy ran 13:25 at age 18! Gain some perspective . . . please.[quote]

Yeah, well, last year it was just one season of indoor, after his selfish showboating to get great times got him too injured for NCAAs, but not too injured for World J. XC, for that he was willingly to wear a big boot and risk outdoors.

Now, it is "who cares? It's one season of X-C," after his 13:25 in a out of season race that he ran just to get Derrick's AJR, got him injured AGAIN.

He is a college runner, either he should go pro or getting start racing like a college runner.

musicra999 wrote:

Remember last year at World Juniors. German was on a sore ankle and still beat Chris and Luke. When Derrick beat him in the 5000 German was coming back from sickness I believe. German is the only one of the with an NCAA title, granted in the 1500 but still I give German the edge. He still has the world indoor junior record in the mile too. German will be fine you'll see. As the other poster stated Luke was 11th like a week ago. Dave Smith probably told German not to run that hard cause they were gonna win anyway. I tend think German will win the NCAA XC title. If Derrick can get Chelenga at the end, German in top form will kill everyone.

Junior XC is an out of season thing that doesn't matter unless you medal at Worlds or come near it.

Derrick is undefeated against German during inseason races in hs and college: Footlocker, NCAA XC 2008, 13:29 AJR race.

German's "world indoor junior record" is an AJR, nothing more. I don't know of any Western junior other than German who pretends their AJR or other national junior record is a world junior record, when there is no such thing, because hardly anyone has access to indoor tracks as juniors.

Overrated - lets discuss that.

HS

Wins CA XC state meet as Soph

Wins CA XC state meet as senior shattering course record

HS 2mile record holder.

Arguably best HS distance double of alltime 4:00/8:34

Frosh in college:

Runs fastest time for a Junior in a indoor mile record

Sets NCAA indoor mile record

Runs fastest time for a Junior indoor 3k

Sets USA Junior 5k record

Wins NCAA 1500

Derrick:

HS

- Runs an equivilent time to Craig Virgin in longtime Illi Cross course.

Frosh in college:

10 top NCAA cross

Places 3k/5k indoor and outdoor 5K

Sets USA Junior 5k record (since broken by Fernandez)

Puskedra

HS

8:46 2 mile

Frosh College:

top 5 NCAA cross

places NCAA indoor 5k

28:34 10k

Don't get me wrong. Derrick and Puskedra are extremely talented and have accomplished a lot at their age, but up to this point, neither are any where near Fernandez in terms of accomplishments - both in terms of important wins and fast times.

This does not mean that both can not beat him this NCAA, and go on to have better careers. German may continue to be injury prone. He may top out earlier. However, up to this point he has deserved a higher "rating" than both Derrick and Puskedra. (I suppose he could still be overrated by some - but only those who thought he was going to run low 13's for 5k last year. Those are clearly in the minority.)

So, maybe German doesn't win this year, but I'm not counting him out yet. He's the most talented US high school prospect ever.

Coach Smith is that you?

It's German's life not yours. It's Dave Smith and OSU's scholarship to give, and they have the power to set German's schedule while his is in school.

Not you - some nobody hate filled idiot on a message board. Grow up and get your own feeble little life.

So much hate, so little brains. L.

grumpy wrote:

Don't get me wrong. Derrick and Puskedra are extremely talented and have accomplished a lot at their age, but up to this point, neither are any where near Fernandez in terms of accomplishments - both in terms of important wins and fast times.

How many points did Derrick score at NCAA indoors, and outdoors? If he scored more points, than I think that's better than Fernandez's win, seeing as the whole point of winning at the collegiate level is to get points for your team. And you're also still ignoring the head to head matchups where Derrick has topped Fernandez. And as far as fast times are concerned, you're still ignoring the fact that Fernandez was in the race where Derrick set his AJR, Derrick was NOT in the race where Fernande broke that AJR. German deserves that record of his, but Derrick has the edge at 5k IMO.

I wouldn't count him out either.

I don't know the state of his "injuries" over the summer. Was he completely off? Was he able to some some cross training?

I also don't know what his effort level was to run 30:11. Was he really struggling? Was he rested or training through it? How healthy is he right now?

30:11 is not that bad. He'd go through 8k in 24:08. He ran about 23:34 at pre-nats last year (though it seemed like a "controlled" effort - not all out).

I'm guessing he can get to top ten shape in one month. Winning would be a challenge even if he had a healthy summer, so it seems out of reach, but this kid has consistently shocked me in the past. I keep projecting my own (long ago) past, and this kid is at a talent level that I could have only dreamed about (as is Derrick for that matter).

You seem incapable of discussing the topic rationally. Grumpy posted a reasonable summary of accomplishments. You picked a very small and select subset. And even then you simply discounted those that were not in your favor (world juniors) and included one which is absurd (counting a "win" over an injured and down runner is about as absurd as it gets).

Grumpy 1, themanontherun 0

I especially like the part about total NCAA points. Sorry but one outdoor championships trumps Derrick's 3rd place outdoors, 4th place indoors, and 5th place indoors combined.

If Chris can get one title in any distance in season or out of season, I'll give him credit German already has. German won the NCAA 1500 almost wire to wire as a freshman. I can't see Chris doing anything that dominant just yet but he is great nonetheless. You can discount the indoor mile time as a WJR if you want. What you can't discount is its an NCAA record (or tied at least). Chris does not have any college records yet and I don't think he'll get any this year. Derrick's still got to prove he can win when it counts (in a major championship, US or NCAA) and if he breaks an NCAA record, I'll put him up there with German. You may not think much of the junior XC title but I have talked to Chris (he drops in on Dyestat from time to time) before and anytime he and German race you better believe they both think its for real, out of season, or injured. There is no way Chris would think lesser of his loss to German because it was at Junior XC and not the NCAAs.

They are all great runners and as stated by someone anyone of them in great shape is going to have a tough time winning. I think GF makes the top 15 then everyone goes on talking trash about him then he blows our minds again come track season... think most of you are forgetting that this guy is at his best on a track,so I would probably give a 10k at nationals to the other two right now before GF, but who cares track is were its at! People bashed galen rupp for not being able to win big races look what he did as a senior. Guys im sure some of you would sell your soles ;) to the devil just to be able to run any of the times these 3 are running stop hating and just sit back and watch because these guys are fantastic runners!

I'm not comparing who is the better runner. I'm comparing who has accomplished more.

In terms of where they are at for their age, they are pretty close. In terms of who has achieved more in terms of big wins, or outstanding times. Then Fernandez is ahead.

Wins:

GF won NON is HS. Derrick has no big wins.

GF wins NCAA 1500 as a Frosh. Derrick has no big wins (but a solid and pretty impressive 3rd at NCAA outdoor).

Times:

GF sets the HS 2mile record, and has the almost unreal for a HS runner 4:00/8:34 double. GF breaks the CA course record by a large amount 14:24 while guys like Ryan Hall, Meb, and other great CA runners were at 14:50ish.

Derrick has 13:55 5k. Great, but several others have been faster in HS, and ran a 13:52 on a 3 mile course about equaling Craig Virgin's time (give or take since the course changed).

In college:

GF has 3:39, 3:55, 7:47.9, and 13:25

Derrick has 13:29.

Again. They are pretty close, but Fernandez due to pure volume of fast times and impressive wins (as in winning the race, not beating the other guy) has the edge to now.

That does not mean Derrick won't go on to beat him everytime from here on out, or that he hasn't beat GF more in their head to head matches. It just means, that up to no GF has the more impressive accomplishments.

Amen!

BTW: I'm well aware Derrick was sick and missed most of his senior HS track season, but we can't count what would have been. We can only count what happened.

Personally I think GF was on his way to a 3rd place finish at NCAA XC, but he didn't. I also think Derrick could have run a 8:40 HS 2 mile, but he didn't. Heck, I think he might have run sub 13:44 5k if he'd been in a open race, but he didn't.

I hope they both go on to great things. So much the better for USA running, and more fun for us fans.

qaazhgsfsd wrote:

He is a college runner, either he should go pro or getting start racing like a college runner.

Exactly. He's the opposite of Rupp. Forget about the junior stuff. He doesn't need it. German ran the 6th fastest indoor mile in the world last year.

I'd rather seem him racing in World Indoors next to Lagat than jogging XC with college boys. Take the money, talk to John Cook, and forget about racing college races and getting injured.

Like many of the other posters here, I am getting concerned about Fernandez. He is the kind of runner who may have already seen his best days, unlike Rupp who upped the ante slowly until dominating in his senior season. At this point, Fernandez set a record, but he also "fell" in last year's XC Championship race. Then he was injured for awhile, came back in the 1500 meters at national outdoors, and now he is has been hurt again. I don't like what seems to be happening to his career at OSU. I mean Okie State gets a 6th year for Ryan Vail, they bring in 8 or 9 foreign runners and now they have gone from undeniable favorite to an "also ran" at XC nationals. I just hope I am reading this wrong, but I've seen it too many times before. Good luck to German, but I think the odds are against him. At this time I believe that he will get beat by Derrick, Chelanga, Puskedra and Heath.

The overwhelming evidence you present has forced me to modify my previously optimistic outlook on Fernandez's running future. Surely his past year of laurels and accomplishments, in terms of both records and titles, despite despite the occasional slight but quickly healed injury is indicative of a grim future. I should have realized earlier when he ran that terribly slow 13:31 off of only a few weeks training that the end was in sight. Or when he failed to win USA's finishing a disappointing 5th as an 18 year old; what a slacker!

I mean, seriously??

It does seem kind of worrisome that Fernandez appears to be hurt almost as much as he is running healthy. Why this is so I have no idea.

On the other hand, your comment about OK State having "gone from undeniable favorite to an "also ran" at XC nationals" seems a bit much. I guess it depends on your definition of "also ran" but I think to most people this means something like "not really in contention for a podium finish". In this case it is hard to see where you are getting that from. Do you really think that it is clear at this point that they will not even be in contention for a medal? I'm not saying that they will definitely win but "gone...to also ran..." seems perhaps premature.

Sometimes I wonder what you guys smoke or drink before you post such nonsence. If you listen to what DS says in his interviews he has a plan, that will be different from previous years. One bad race (if GF had a bad race, we do not know what his orders were) does not make a season. I believe DS is getting his runners ready for NCAA based on their individual needs so that they will perform well for the team, which is the ultimate goal. He will rest some of the top 5 at Big12 and Regionals and have them ready the Monday before Thanksgiving.