When will the unemployment rate hit 10%?

Aside from the stats, what do you letsrunners think about the job market based on your own observations? I live in the DC area and don't know a single person that is unemployed, although I have heard it is tough to find entry level positions. I am sure this is not a good representation of most of the nation though.

The only other piece of anecdotal evidence that I have is from my friend who sells printing. He says that companies weren't buying for several months but when September came things took a 180 and now business is good.

thisaswell wrote:

Agreed on Ohio State. What say you about Bama?

I don't think Alabama has what it takes to stay undefeated OR what it takes to lose one game in the regular season, still make it to the SEC championship game and win that and end up in the national title game. They just haven't beaten anyone good yet, and the last half of their season is much tougher. Good for them for beating everyone so far like a drum, but they won't do that all season.

June 1983 - 10.1%That was the last time.

on the runs wrote:

Was 1982 the last year that the unemployment has been higher?

BLS wrote:

June 1983 - 10.1%

That was the last time.

on the runs wrote:

Was 1982 the last year that the unemployment has been higher?

Hey, who was president back then? Wasn't it some guy that the conservatives revere to death? Ronnie whats-his-name? Hmmm....I wonder if Sagarin and others had been adults back then if they would have been making a lot of noise about Ronnie not doing his job well, and maybe even calling for his impeachment (as many Tea Party nuts do)? Or would they have just blamed it all on Carter and the Dems? I am sure the latter.

(and of course the unemployment rate is clearly not fully under the control of the president, or even the government as a whole. But isn't that the point of bringing it up Sagarin? As a shot at Obama?? Of course that is the point. And if you think you can more legitimately make that point because dems control both the white house and congress, think again, because likely more blame lays at the feet of the greed and recklessness of wall street, and the previous[until 2006, when things were then virtually deadlocked in congress for 2 years] MANY years of Republicans controlling all branches of gov't. But nice try)

Interesting that most of you believe the reported unemployment number. It's somewhere in the %15-%20 range if you go on how they used to calculate it back in the day. They always under report inflation and over report employment, but most people for some reason buy into the bogus numbers.

Flagpole wrote:

thisaswell wrote:

Agreed on Ohio State. What say you about Bama?

I don't think Alabama has what it takes to stay undefeated OR what it takes to lose one game in the regular season, still make it to the SEC championship game and win that and end up in the national title game. They just haven't beaten anyone good yet, and the last half of their season is much tougher. Good for them for beating everyone so far like a drum, but they won't do that all season.

So far they've beaten three teams in the top 25, plus Arkansas (35-7) which gave Florida all they could handle. What more would you like?

dim whitman wrote:

So far they've beaten three teams in the top 25, plus Arkansas (35-7) which gave Florida all they could handle. What more would you like?

Not all those teams are in the top 25 anymore, and Virginia Tech and Ole Miss were way too highly touted early on (Virginia Tech always is over rated). Florida may have been overlooking Arkansas. I'm not saying Alabama isn't any good...I just don't think they will do well enough to make the national title game. The second half of their schedule is tougher. If they can beat an ever-improving Tennessee team and then LSU and then Auburn AT Auburn and then also win a potential SEC title game...then I'll give them some respect. I haven't seen anything yet to give it to them. They DO deserve credit for beating those teams so far though...can only beat the ones on your schedule, but if I were an Alabama fan, I'd be wary of the rest of the schedule. They got PUNKED last year in their last two games of the season, and they aren't really any better this year. Time will tell. I could be wrong.

google doesn't have a date search, so I couldn't find too much from prior to June, but this link is already speculating (NPR, Planet Money) on the possibility of ten percent unemployment this year (from November 3, 2008).

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2008/11/will_unemployment_hit_10.html

There were lots of others that I heard early in the year but I did track down these from mid year:

June 16, 2009, Obama predicted ten percent unemployment in 2009.

July, 2009, the Fed predicted ten percent unemployment in 2009.

Flagpole wrote:

thisaswell wrote:

Agreed on Ohio State. What say you about Bama?

I don't think Alabama has what it takes to stay undefeated OR what it takes to lose one game in the regular season, still make it to the SEC championship game and win that and end up in the national title game. They just haven't beaten anyone good yet, and the last half of their season is much tougher. Good for them for beating everyone so far like a drum, but they won't do that all season.

Alabama has already beaten 3 ranked opponents this year, including Virginia Tech on a neutral field and not including a 35-7 beatdown of a 3-3 Arkansas team that nearly won at Florida. Alabama plays one more ranked opponent in the second half of the season (#9 LSU). In fact, Alabama is only scheduled to play 2 teams with winning records from here on out.

So... you have no idea what you're talking about.

Alabama is significantly better than last year. You should probably just stop posting while you're behind.

Bama's schedule is easier from here on out. Period.

What a strange country.

10% unemployment - yet your government is willing to pay $400 for every gallon of gasoline delivered to your troops in Afghanistan.

The Marines alone out there use 800,000 gallons a day - so that just for them comes to a $320,000,000 daily fuel bill!

So while the your government squanders $400 per gallon of gasoline in order to kill women and children in Afghanistan, it seems by those unemployment figures that many millions of your citizens have lost their jobs and their homes and are experiencing the kind of misery that is the daily life of poor Third World peoples.

I’ve read many are living in their cars and in public parks. - that America’s cities, towns, and states are suffering from the costs of economic dislocations and the reduction in tax revenues from the economy’s decline.

Yet, you’re also willing to pay the cost of every soldier sent to fight in a country half way round the world and no threat to America - with comes to £750,000 for each trooper.

Strange sense of priorities.

Mtn Dew wrote:

Alabama is significantly better than last year. You should probably just stop posting while you're behind.

Bama's schedule is easier from here on out. Period.

I agree on 'Bama (and figured Florida would get sloppy sooner or later, but thus far they have survived), but it's silly this has turned into a football thread as a result of more boasting, which was the point of this thread to begin with -- to call out said boasting, which, if right even 30% of the time is still WRONG the other 70%. Just shaking my head.

Meanwhile, we are paving the way for a severe dislocation, but nobody seems to care, and I highly doubt anyone took the time to read Hussman's article. The only pertinent question remaining is, will we reach ALL-TIME highs in the unemployment rate? Will the Fed be forced to defend the dollar and choke off a nascent, anemic recovery with very little ORGANIC growth? Will Iran start serious saber-rattling when they know we are on the brink of a double-dip or prolonged weakness?

The 10% figure was only bandied about as a result of a useless and meaningless Dow 10,000 thread not so long ago, but that anyone couldn't see this 10%+ coming a year ago is profoundly ignorant. And, if we don't pave the way for ORGANIC growth through shrewder tax policy and just keep our fiscal profligacy going and prolong the jobLOSS recovery over a period of many years, just how in the heck are we going to "bend the cost curve" on health care?

People are going to be eating even MORE processed food and fast food, because it's all they will be able to afford. The cost curve is going to bend alright -- severely upward over time or people are going to see benefits cut severely (which needs to happen on all levels of government). This is a new normal, even if the Fed stays busy buying agencies and mortgages and equities with monopoly money to stoke "animal spirits," without fundamentally changing or improving anything structurally.

I can here the fiddles in the background, however weak right now...

*hear... letsrun is primitive man. The only site I've ever spent a great deal of time on that still lacks an editing tool.

Mtn Dew wrote:

Alabama is significantly better than last year. You should probably just stop posting while you're behind.

Bama's schedule is easier from here on out. Period.

Wishful thinking. LSU is a serious test for them. Tennessee is getting better. Auburn AT Auburn is NEVER a walk in the park, and then if Alabama gets through all that unscathed, then they have to play in the SEC championship game. Sorry brother, but just LSU and a potential SEC title game alone makes the rest of their season tougher than the first half, AND then they've also got to play a couple other games that they might be overlooking.

They got blasted by Utah last year. How has Alabama improved greatly from then?

Alabama beats everyone including their opponent in the SEC title game and I'll be a believer. They haven't beaten anyone yet to say they're all that good. They just haven't...a couple teams that are barely hanging on to the top 25? Great.

Join the miltary, earn a job

Sagarin wrote:

Mtn Dew wrote:

Alabama is significantly better than last year. You should probably just stop posting while you're behind.

Bama's schedule is easier from here on out. Period.

I agree on 'Bama

You agree that the rest of their schedule is easier than what they've played so far? What are you smoking? LSU will be a serious test, and IF Alabama can win out, they have the SEC title game to contend with. Sorry, but no team they've played yet is as tough as LSU, and assuming they can get to the SEC title game, they will have to play a second team that is better than what they've played to date. Tough road for Alabama. I don't think they make the BSC title game. Everyone was up on Alabama last year too when I told you all they weren't that great, and then they lose their final game and get punked by Utah. I can see a similar thing happening this year.

That we are not using whatever borrowing and printing capacity we have left to expedite the building of nuclear reactors, tapping natural gas, and developing biofuels and instead talking about crap and trade (tax and offshore) and healthcare reform (when the real problem that needs reform and will SOLVE access is HEALTH itself and LOBBYING) is mind-boggling.

Instead, we don't give money to the small businesses that create 70% of our jobs and DO give it to the public sector so they can dig up roads and then fill them back in again, akin to giving a hungry, homeless person a candy bar with the same longevity and sustainability. We pay banks interest on their reserves. Mind-boggling, except for the fact that this administration, politically-speaking, wants to wait until they think they have a "recovery" so they can pile on and win re-election, leaving the structural problems for another day for another set of politicians. Hope and change has relented to despair and staus-quo (or something worse) for many and will continue so.

As someone else said, this government gave "the keys to the kingdom" to Government Sachs and said "take us higher." And so let it be done and let it continue through the end of the year. "Transparency" be damned. But the fiddles are only going to grow louder.

Flagpole wrote:

Wishful thinking. LSU is a serious test for them. Tennessee is getting better. Auburn AT Auburn is NEVER a walk in the park, and then if Alabama gets through all that unscathed, then they have to play in the SEC championship game. Sorry brother, but just LSU and a potential SEC title game alone makes the rest of their season tougher than the first half, AND then they've also got to play a couple other games that they might be overlooking.

They got blasted by Utah last year. How has Alabama improved greatly from then?

Alabama beats everyone including their opponent in the SEC title game and I'll be a believer. They haven't beaten anyone yet to say they're all that good. They just haven't...a couple teams that are barely hanging on to the top 25? Great.

LSU is a test, but LSU isn't as good as VT and Bama won that by double digits on a neutral field.

How is Bama better than the Utah game? Well, for starters they don't have two of their defensive coaches more interested in finding other jobs than focusing on the game. Bama didn't prepare for that game and no one with any sense honestly thinks Utah had a better team.

Haven't beaten anyone yet? Virginia Tech isn't anybody? How clueless are you?

Flagpole wrote:

Everyone was up on Alabama last year too when I told you all they weren't that great, and then they lose their final game and get punked by Utah. I can see a similar thing happening this year.

Somebody is mad that their beloved team was smashed by lowly Purdue and thinks taking actually good teams down a couple pegs will make people forget what a joke of a program Ohio State is.