Will Lagat upset Bekele in his run for the Jackpot this Friday in Paris?

Ever heard of Saif Shaheen? or Eliud Kipchoge? Lagat beat BOTH of them this year at 3k. 5000m and 3000m are two different races. Speed comes into play more at 3k. And if you say Bekele is rounding into shape then he obviously is not speed sharp like Lagat (i.e-3:32). You cant say Bekele will win based off his 5k last week. Lagat is a better a 3k runner then Bekele. Lagat never went for a serious attempt at time for 3k. Lets be honest, the pace is set for 7:25. NO ONE will run 7:25. The pace was set for 12:50 in Rome and what happened? The race went in 12:56. The race on Friday will be anywhere from 7:33-7:37. Lagat has not raced Bekele healthy since 2006 when he beat him at 5k with a 52 last lap and a 24.XX final 200m. And if im correct it was the last time Bekele lost a 5k. This 3k will be a rare treat, and Lagat will reign.

Ain't no woman like Bernard Lagat.

No one can love me better.

people are stuck on this

"sub-7'30, kennster wins, over 7'30 bernie has a chance"

they are underestimating bernie - sub-7'30 favors kennster, but it woudn't be until < 7'27s that he gets a big advantage - bernie can still outkick him in a 7'29 or even a 7'28

bekele 719 new wr

lagat 833

lagat goes into lactic acid and fails to break 8:00 due to forgetting to shave his hear with a razor prior to the race.

the430miler wrote:

bekele 719 new wr

lagat 833

only a matter of time until you posted. This should be a good rematch of what may have happened in Beijing if Lagat was healthy. Not very common for these two to end up in a race together. Im excited.

I say that Bekele wins it, but it won't be very easy at all with Lagat and that other 7:28 guy in there. Yes, Lagat beat Bekele, but that was the day after Bekele had run a 10k - Bekele even says so himself in his interview. Plus, according to Bekele's wiki page, he's dropped a 24sec final 200m segment before himself winning in 12:52. They both have kicks.

Also, Bekele rounding into shape means he's a danger to ANYONE unless they're under 1500m. 12:37??? That is definitely under 3:32(Bekele's pb) simunltaneous ability.

Either way, this should be a great race to watch

Bekele in 7:42 over Lagat.

51.5 last lap

AW Fan wrote:

Bekele in 7:42 over Lagat.

51.5 last lap

bekele will run a 7:42 the same day that Tergat slows down to a 210 marathon. itll be YEARS before he gets that slow.

wow hold up wrote:Yes, Lagat beat Bekele, but that was the day after Bekele had run a 10k - Bekele even says so himself in his interview

what 10k was this ???

i was at that london meet on a friday when bernie whupped him & there was nothing mentioned about kennster running an official 10k the day before

if he'd run a hard 10k in training the day before running against a legend in bernie, then i can only conclude kennster is a moron

ventolin wrote:

trying this :

http://www.jundo.co.uk

& giving bernie the 12'55 which is reasonable

then going with his various possible current 1500s, starting with 3'32sb ( & probably quicker as that 3'32 was in a low quality race )

3'32 ->7'27.60

3'31 ->7'26.76

3'30 ->7'25.91

kennster will have to be in probably 7'25 shape for a definite win...

Or we could look at reality:

Legat pr 7:33

Bekele 7:25

Both are not in pr form but Bekele does not have to run 7:25 to win. If he runs sub 7:30 Lagat is out of it

ventolin wrote:

wow hold up wrote:Yes, Lagat beat Bekele, but that was the day after Bekele had run a 10k - Bekele even says so himself in his interview

what 10k was this ???

i was at that london meet on a friday when bernie whupped him & there was nothing mentioned about kennster running an official 10k the day before

Sorry KB, there was no 10k!! Interesting that he was in better form then than he is now....

He will have a lot of trouble with Lagat. Rumour has it that his manager Hermens has worked overtime to have Lagat excluded.....

12:51.32 1 Gaz Saint-Denis 8 Jul

12:51.44 1 GGala Roma 14 Jul

3:33.08 1r2 DNG Stockholm 25 Jul

13:00.04 2 Norw Union London 28 Jul

ukathleticscoach wrote:

ventolin wrote:

trying this :

http://www.jundo.co.uk

& giving bernie the 12'55 which is reasonable

then going with his various possible current 1500s, starting with 3'32sb ( & probably quicker as that 3'32 was in a low quality race )

3'32 ->7'27.60

3'31 ->7'26.76

3'30 ->7'25.91

kennster will have to be in probably 7'25 shape for a definite win...

Or we could look at reality:

Legat pr 7:33

Bekele 7:25

Both are not in pr form but Bekele does not have to run 7:25 to win. If he runs sub 7:30 Lagat is out of it

hmm yes, lets look at reality. Reality is that Bekele has run under 7:30 ONCE according to iaaf. You say if he runs 7:30 Lagat is out of it, well Bekele went under 7:30 on August 7th, 2007 which was right before the WC's meaning he was in peak form. Reality also shows that Lagat has never made a serious time attempt at 3k. Lagat has pr's of 12:59 and 7:33 and they were all run off a pace that allowed Lagat to win. Besides for the 1500, Lagat chases the competition not the clock.

Lagat has never run a great 3km, ever. He has won quite a few in the 7.35-7.45 range but that is cold hard poos for a guy who has run 3.26.

In saying that Bekele has lost to Cragg and Mottram at 3km, runners much worse than Lagat.

This could be a classic encounter, I pick either Bekele to win by 4-5 secs or Lagat to take him.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

ventolin wrote:

trying this :

http://www.jundo.co.uk

& giving bernie the 12'55 which is reasonable

then going with his various possible current 1500s, starting with 3'32sb ( & probably quicker as that 3'32 was in a low quality race )

3'32 ->7'27.60

3'31 ->7'26.76

3'30 ->7'25.91

kennster will have to be in probably 7'25 shape for a definite win...

Or we could look at reality:

Legat pr 7:33

Bekele 7:25

Both are not in pr form but Bekele does not have to run 7:25 to win. If he runs sub 7:30 Lagat is out of it

it should be noted that Lagats pr is not 7:33. His pr is 7:32

2007 7:32.43 Birmingham, GBR 17/02/2007 ...he ran this indoors back in 07. Pretty quick for indoors if you ask me.

7:32 indoors isn't great?

jingle bowels wrote:

Lagat has never run a great 3km, ever. He has won quite a few in the 7.35-7.45 range but that is cold hard poos for a guy who has run 3.26.

In saying that Bekele has lost to Cragg and Mottram at 3km, runners much worse than Lagat.

This could be a classic encounter, I pick either Bekele to win by 4-5 secs or Lagat to take him.

jingle bowels wrote:

Lagat has never run a great 3km, ever. He has won quite a few in the 7.35-7.45 range but that is cold hard poos for a guy who has run 3.26.

In saying that Bekele has lost to Cragg and Mottram at 3km, runners much worse than Lagat.

This could be a classic encounter, I pick either Bekele to win by 4-5 secs or Lagat to take him.

Right, winning 3ks in the 7:35-7:45 range. A few even at 7:34. How many times does someone run 1 second off there pr constantly? not very many. By Lagat winning multiple 3ks within 1-3 seconds of his pr shows that a 7:33 does not give an accurate measure on Lagats 3k ability. Lagat could run a 7:28 against the clock or if Bekele pulls him too it. Lagats 5000m pr came when he beat Bekele in London in 06. There was no 10k, just Lagat straight up jocking on Bekele. Although I think Lagat will win I do however disagree with your take on why he would. That was a joke when Cragg and Mottram beat Bekele. I mean, honestly Cragg??? and Bekele stated that Mottram had gotten the best of him because he was jet lagged and fatigued from racing hard a few days earlier. The next time they met? Bekele killed him.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of them doesn't show on the night.

If they do it should be a good race. Haven't seen enough of Lagat's races this year to know how good a form he's in.

3:32 on paper is very good, but I don't think this was shown on tv anywhere and no splits have been published. If he finished it with a <54 then it's v. good.

I think 3k is a great mid distance encounter for a 1500 & a 5k specialist. Could go either way.

I'll stick my neck out and say if they reach the bell outside 6:40 and both are in contention then I think Lagat might just inch it. That will have overwhelming psychological implications for both athletes going into the Worlds.

Be interesting to see if Lagat, at 34, still has what it takes to win major medals.

Really? Because I saw him break 7:30 three times in 2007:7:26 in England7:29 in Monaco7:25 in Stockholm

cribs wrote:

hmm yes, lets look at reality. Reality is that Bekele has run under 7:30 ONCE according to iaaf. You say if he runs 7:30 Lagat is out of it, well Bekele went under 7:30 on August 7th, 2007 which was right before the WC's meaning he was in peak form. Reality also shows that Lagat has never made a serious time attempt at 3k. Lagat has pr's of 12:59 and 7:33 and they were all run off a pace that allowed Lagat to win. Besides for the 1500, Lagat chases the competition not the clock.