Rupp will also break 13 this year

So if we agree Rupp is ready to run 13:0X, shouldn't it follow

that he'll benefit from racing in Europe?

And it seems you contradict yourself when you say that runners do poorly in races that are too fast for them, yet Barrios gets 7th at the Olympics. Has he ever even been in a fast race in Europe?

Rupp beat 13.30 and 27.52 australians.. good but not great runners, he had to work very hard to gap a 13.30 guy.

Rupp's PB is 13.18.

sub 13 talk is premature.

Ventolin! What say you?

I agree with you that Rupp is probably in shape to run 13:0X and low 27. But base it off HIS fitness and HIS performances not on the PBs of those he has raced.

A runner's fitness can fluctuate throughout the year and oftentimes that same runner can have a bad race even during the prime of fitness. Is it hard to believe that Rupp was in prime racing condition when he raced well against all these guys you bring up? And is it so hard to believe that a decent Ethiopian was just training through the indoor season? (Extreme Example: I beat Jason Pyrah a year after his Olympic 1500. He was out of shape because he wasn't peaking for the Springfield Fun Run. I am still not a 3:35 1500 runner.)

The NCAA seasons don't match up at all with the summer European circuit that these sub 13 professionals peak for. Comparing an American Collegiate runner to an African professional is not a fair assessment.

with all the respect.. rupp is a great runner

but is not going to break 13 or 27 in the 5k 10k hope i wrong but i dont think so.. yea right!!!

Eric B. wrote:

A runner's fitness can fluctuate throughout the year and oftentimes that same runner can have a bad race even during the prime of fitness.

i certainly agree with the above, but i think a lot of americans don't get this. they think because an african runs 12:52 one summer in a perfect race in europe his is EVERY day a 12:52 guy. he may have run a 13:05, 12:55 and 13:01 surrounding that mark. however somehow americans label him has a "12:52" guy and then would contest that none of our guys can ever beat him. this is part of the idea that I am challenging. in championship races you don't know for sure how fit guys are unless they have really tested themselves at that distance shortly before or after that event, and most accurately at the same distance they race in the championship race, but how often does that happen? more importantly, no matter how fit they are coming into the race things happen on race day. if your off by 1% that makes a big difference in a field of several 12:55-13:05 guys especially if you need to close in near 2:30 for the last 1K. you can have a 12:55 PR and get beat by a guy with a 13:06 pr because the pace isn't all out and he's just doing better than you that day. and who knows maybe in a euro style rabbited race he'd PR that day and hit 13:02 and you'd be behind him. my point with all this is that we have guys who try to actually build cases why our americans can't compete with the top africans or have no shot at a medal when in fact if you can run near 13:00 or 27:10 and can close out in 2:30 in a slower race you have a very real shot. look at Teg in 2007!

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"Is it hard to believe that Rupp was in prime racing condition when he raced well against all these guys you bring up? And is it so hard to believe that a decent Ethiopian was just training through the indoor season? "

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again it's like your building a case of why an african narrowly beat an american. i don't think it's any more likely that daba was "just training" (meaning raw and not in shape)any more than rupp. at the very least he ran a 3K a 5K and another 5K following the Tyson invite and then came out winning carlsbad roughly the time Rupp had indoor NCAA's. it's pretty well known that outside of championship races rupp is on full training mode and he doesn't get sharp for in season races. they were likely around the same kind of fitness at that time. rupp was coming of an illness. daba had a 13:06 to his name before that race and now has a 13:02 early in the summer season. both he and rupp looked like they could have handled at least 13:12 that day but rupp wasn't taking the lead from daba and daba slowed it up several times. they were at 13:25 pace at 2-2.5K and cut it down.

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"I agree with you that Rupp is probably in shape to run 13:0X and low 27. But base it off HIS fitness and HIS performances not on the PBs of those he has raced."

ok, i agree with you to an extent on this. of course there is truth in this. i use it as just one factor, not the only factor.

it does follow some logic that if a guy is beating runners that have faster pr's than him and:

a) they race on a european racing circuit

b) he has not

then he MAY (not definitely of course) also be that fast of a runner. apply the fitness he's been showing (3:39 in a kickers race to close out 3rd race in 2 days, a 5K,10K,5K in 45 hours and closing them out with world class closing speed).

i guess the points i'm addressing:

1) rupp may be at the level to mix it up with the top africans in a championship race (much like Teg did in the 5K and barrios)

2) rupp is very likely NEAR 13:00 and 27:00 at this point

3) americans (especially the young ones) need to wash their head of the idea that there is an army of africans who can simply run 12:50 at will, do it every time they race

i'm not sure if the time will happen this summer for rupp, simply due to logistics and lack of opportunity, but that doesn't mean that he isn't there. there is a chance that he heads to europe early and gets in a tune up race or two before worlds but that could be anything from 1500-5K.

as a parting thought, it's not like rupp has run any more indoor 5Ks than any of the top runners yet here is where he stands on the all time world indoor list:

5000 Metres All Time

12:49.60 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) - Birmingham, GBR, 20/02/2004

Updated as at:27/02/2009 Mark Athlete Nation DOB Pos Venue Date

12:49.60 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13/06/1982 1 Birmingham, GBR 20/02/2004

12:50.38 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18/04/1973 1 Birmingham 14/02/1999

12:51.48 Daniel Komen KEN 17/05/1976 1 Stockholm 19/02/1998

12:59.04 Haile Gebrselassie 1 Stockholm 20/02/1997

13:06.72 Sileshi Sihine ETH 09/05/1983 1 Stockholm 02/02/2006

13:07.83 Abreham Cherkos ETH 23/09/1989 1 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009

13:09.37 Paul Kipsiele Koech KEN 10/11/1981 2 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009

13:10.98 Haile Gebrselassie 1 Sindelfingen 27/01/1996

13:11.39 Alberto García ESP 22/02/1971 1 Gent 09/02/2003

13:11.47 Dejene Berhanu ETH 12/12/1980 2 Birmingham 20/02/2004

13:15.22 Paul Bitok KEN 26/06/1970 2 Birmingham, GBR 14/02/1999

13:17.46 Mike Kipruto Kigen KEN 15/01/1986 2 Stockholm 02/02/2006

13:17.89 Bekana Daba ETH 29/07/1988 1 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009

13:18.12 Galen Rupp USA 08/05/1986 2 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009

13:19.30 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 27/11/1975 3 Birmingham 20/02/2004

13:19.79 Samuel Chelanga KEN 23/02/1985 3 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009

14th on the list and the 12th best runner all time.

No, very unlikely. I would give him maybe 50 50 odds of getting under 13:12 in a very fast, paced race where he could just tuck in and hang on.

Just not in the same class as the world leaders.

Sure he can close very fast off of a slow pace i.e. NCAA's.

The big boys close just as fast over the last 1600m but they go through a minute faster at 3400 meters into the race.

Interesting fact for us numbers guys, a few little statistics that I thought were interesting:

Of the 13 marks ahead of Rupp on the list the average outdoor PR was 15 seconds faster than their indoor mark.

If you take out Paul Koech (am anomaly because he is a steeple specialist and while he can't race the steeple indoors he focused on it outdoors, he actually had 2 second slower outdoor 5K pr, which was a pretty old pr) then the average for the 12 in front of Rupp is 16 seconds faster outdoors.

If pull out Gebs #2 and #3 marks and leave Koech on then the average for the marks ahead of Rupp is 13 seconds faster for outdoors, and if you pull Koech off in this scenario than it goes to 14 seconds faster outdoors.

May not translate for Rupp like it did for these guys, but that would be highly against the odds, considering 10 out of the 11 runners ahead of him average 14 seconds faster outdoors than indoors. Plus after watching his last 12 months I'd be shocked if he wasn't in 13:04 shape now. He needs the opportunity.

gatcha wrote:

Also suprised how many times Bob finished 9th or better in the 5K at world championships (supposedly in the hayday of EPO) and how slow is times were. His top finish was 5th with 13:42! Be interesting to know what his last 1K was and how far out of the medals he was.

Um, the 5th in 13:42 you're refering too was in the 1993 WC, and he was 5th in his heat, not 5th in the final. Top 4 in each of 3 heats and next 3 fastest made the final. Kennedy's 13:42.17 was the 5th fastest non-automatic qualifier, so he didn't even make the final.

Here are the top ten for all the years he made the Olympic or World Champs finals:

1995 WC Final

1 Ismael Kirui (KEN) 13:16.77

2 Khalid Boulami (MAR) 13:17.15

3 Shem Kororia (KEN) 13:17.59

4 Ismail Sghyr (MAR) 13:17.86

5 Brahim Lahlafi (MAR) 13:18.89

6 Worku Bikila (ETH) 13:20.12

7 Bob Kennedy (USA) 13:32.10

8 Fita Bayisa (ETH) 13:34.52

9 Dieter Baumann (GER) 13:39.98

10 Philemon Hanneck (ZIM) 13:41.28

1996 Olympic Final

1 Venuste Niyongabo (BDI) 13:07.96

2 Paul Bitok (KEN) 13:08.16

3 Khalid Boulami (MAR) 13:08.37

4 Dieter Baumann (GER) 13:08.81

5 Tom Nyariki (KEN) 13:12.29

6 Bob Kennedy (USA) 13:12.35

7 Enrique Molina (ESP) 13:12.91

8 Brahim Lahlafi (MAR) 13:13.26

9 Shem Kororia (KEN) 13:14.63

10 Fita Bayissa (ETH) 13:18.30

1997 WC Final

1 Daniel Komen (KEN) 13:07.38

2 Khalid Boulami (MAR) 13:09.34

3 Tom Nyariki (KEN) 13:11.09

4 Ismail Sghyr (MAR) 13:17.45

5 Dieter Baumann (GER) 13:17.64

6 Bob Kennedy (USA) 13:19.45

7 El Hassan Lahssini (MAR) 13:20.52

8 Enrique Molina (ESP) 13:24.54

9 Manuel Pancorbo (ESP) 13:25.78

10 Fita Bayissa (ETH) 13:25.98

1999 WC Final

1 Salah Hissou (MAR) 12:58.13 (CR)

2 Benjamin Limo (KEN) 12:58.72

3 Mohammed Mourhit (BEL) 12:58.80

4 Brahim Lahlafi (MAR) 12:59.09

5 Daniel Komen (KEN) 13:04.71

6 Fita Bayissa (ETH) 13:13.86

7 Hailu Mekonnen (ETH) 13:18.97

8 Million Wolde (ETH) 13:20.81

9 Bob Kennedy (USA) 13:23.52

10 Pablo Olmedo (MEX) 13:27.74

racetraining wrote:

Sure he can close very fast off of a slow pace i.e. NCAA's.

The big boys close just as fast over the last 1600m but they go through a minute faster at 3400 meters into the race.

see here is that misconception, rupp was on pace for a 2:22-2:23 close. do you think he might have been capable of more on fresh legs? like say only one race in the last 2 or 3 days? and even if you don't i challenge you to show me where "the big boys" close faster than 2:23 off a minute faster pace at 3400 meters, just show me more than a case where something even close to this statement happens. show me where it has consistenly happened?

"the big boys" do close fast off of faster pace, but they don't close in 2:23. most of the fast times are guys hanging onto the pace that they were rabbitted though. sure guys like komen, geb & bekele could close down hard off of 13:10 pace but not likely much under 2:30 and certainly not 2:25.

here are several sub 13:00 guys on pace for 13:20 and closing out in 3:09 & 3:10 for the last 1200.

here again is kipkosgei and several kenyans on pace for 13:10 and closing out in 3:07 for the last 1200 and 2:35 for the last 1K.

here is bekele running all out for 12:58 in europe with a last 1K of 2:37 and last lap of :60.

trust me if you can show me where guys do even remotely what you claim they can do (close just as fast as rupp (2:23) off of a minute fast pace at 3400) i'd love to see it, i'm a fan of the sport. heck i'd love to see if they can close ALMOST as fast as rupp off of say 30 seconds faster at 3400 meters. and we'll forget the fact that rupp was winding up 20000K of racing in 45 hours, since it seems like most people want to shrug that off.

perspectivation wrote:

heck i'd love to see if they can close ALMOST as fast as rupp off of say 30 seconds faster at 3400 meters. and we'll forget the fact that rupp was winding up 20000K of racing in 45 hours, since it seems like most people want to shrug that off.

answering my own question here, if faired pretty well for lagat:

most of the guys in this field weren't coming of 15K the day before.

The answer, the man Bekele just over a minute faster at 3400 running all out to the finish, 6 seconds slower over the last 1K than rupp was with a 2:29 the rest of the field in 2:30 and slower.

As for "fresh legs". This is prob. the best reason for Rupp to run 10,000m. Just one race. Rounds at other distances make it so much harder to just get to the final.

I think for all of you that are expecting Rupp to be in the mix for a medal come Worlds are going to be quite disappointed. Sorry but running against the collegians is perhaps giving you a false sense of hope.

Also remember that when Bob Kennedy was mixing it up at 5000m his pr was not far off the world record at the time.

I hope I am wrong, but so far Rupp has not shown any indications of being anywhere a worlds contender.

Lets take it a step at a time and see how he does on June 25th.

Big difference between Medal and sub 27.

Medal league is sub 26:40.

Understand the difference, who said medal either? Don't be an idiot.

The reason Rupp and J.L. Barrios beat so many people in the Olympics wasn't because they were better than them. It was because those guys were racing for a medal, while they were racing to place as high as they could. Also it's dumb to compare the indoor times of someone in the NCAA to Africans who don't focus nearly as much on indoor.

Ok you can play math games. As for Bekele and Geb, et el.. I guess we may never know what they could close in over the last 1600m if they came through 3400m in 10:04 (14:48 5k pace) or so, as they rarely would ever run so slowly by their standards.

Keep in mind that Rupp is running the 10000m which is great for him. He could be pressed to is limits just to make the US team at 5000m.

By the time we get to the 2012 Olympics (Rupps last one likely) are guys will be competing against guys that are still in HS right now.

Reviewing Races is Fun

RE: Rupp will also break 13 this year 6/15/2009 10:10PM - in reply to gatcha Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeyZUdUI1fY&feature=related

2:42 for the 9th kilometer followed by a 2:30 last 1K and a :56 last lap for Geb at a 27:24 world championship gold. closed in 1:57 over the last 800 going 61-56.

Rupps 3:00 last 1200 in the 10K and 2:55 last 1200 in the 5K (both while jogging in) are starting to look pretty good. In the 5K he could have easily hit 2:23 for the last 1K and 2:53 for the last 1200 and in the 10K without that slow 100 from 1000-900 meters out he probably would have been 2:56 for the last 1200 and 2:26 for the last 1K.

The real question is what pace can he handle and still come up with an all out 2:30? I think a last 1K in 2:33 and finish of 27:27 was a medal in Athens with Geb and Tergat in the race.

MMMh look again. Geb goes with 500m to go and eased to the finish with a 56 last 400m. Geb sat until he thought he could do it. If Rupp charges away in the last 1200m at the world level he will have a pack sitting on him, but it would be fun to watch.

racetraining wrote:

By the time we get to the 2012 Olympics (Rupps last one likely) are guys will be competing against guys that are still in HS right now.

Right, because he'd be 30 in 2016 which we all know is WAY to old for a distance guy to run fast.

Just because Rupp was pushing someone that has run under 13 doesn't mean he is capable of doing that also. You mention the Berlin race. If you watched it- Bekele was struggling to hold on without a doubt. Kogo almost had him for a second. That doesn't mean Kogo will break Bekele's record- although for all I know he could. Rupp is capable of running faster- most athletes are, but to get yourself in the right conditions in the right race with the right competition while you are feeling good is the hard part.