Can prodigy Kiprop get the 1000 meter world record?

Are you suspicious of German ? he came from nowhere and within one year he is world class.

World class is different than super human. What has he run - 3.54?

Noah was coached by Kim McDonald, not Ricky Simms when he was running well. He went to Ricky after Kim passed away. I trained with Noah many times and I'm pretty sure he was clean (as sure as you can be). He was a lot smarter in the way he trained compared to the other Kenyans in the group *menaing he knew how to back off when he was feeling flat). The other guys in the group pushed themselves to be up there in every session, which it no mean feat when you look at the talent they had in the group over the years. The sessions on the track were very hard (3 times per week)and some of the off day runs got quite fast towards the last few miles (5 min pace and quicker). If you didn't recover in between, you'd end up injured or burnt out.

If you think he is dirty, then you also have to think that Bob, Steve and any of the other americans that trained in that group were also dirty.

JR (not the J.R that also posts here)

how is 46.87 not fast for an 800/1500m guy? how many middle distance guys have run faster for 400m? No doubt there are a few 800m guys who have run faster--maybe Borz, Everett, ...? But 1500m guys? Ngeny suspicion would have to concern the 3:43 mile. And for Coe, I have to wonder whether he could have run significantly faster for mile, given his training and his 800/1k performances, if he had had an El G or Morceli or Lagat or Ngeny to run against.

Yeah I mean Ngeny's 3:43 was obviously an otherworldly run by him. No way you can say he came out of nowhere, however. As mentioned before, he'd paced 1200 of El G's 3:26.00. Also he ran 3:30 in 1998 and a 3:50 mile the year before(would have been WJR). Pretty simple progression.

I think the intriguing thing about Kiprop is that he was World Junior XC champion and thus has very good strength obviously. For a guy like that to run 1:43 low, you've got to think that he's got some tremendous upside in the 1500/mile. Ngeny did not have the creds/ability at upper-distance that Kiprop does in my opinion.

The big question remains. What happened to all the fast white guys (Coe, Cram, Ovett, Scott, Gonzalez, Abescal) after the 1980's. I know the Africans came onto the scene, but that doesn't explain white guys getting slower.

kiprop has no chance to beat me in the 1000m, if he wants to break the world record he will have to find a race that im in it otherwise i will use him as a pace maker and distroy him the last 200m.

whatever else you think about Ngeny he was unbelievably talented. I saw him at the World Juniors in 96 when, allegedly, he was running in just about his first race outside of his own school playground (he obviously qualified somehow, but you get the point - he was really raw and unexposed). In his heat he toyed with the field, constantly changing the pace then in the final they crawled through about 300m and he just took off only to slow it down to a crawl about another 300m later and continued to do this during the race. Very bizarre, showed massive inexperience and eventually came 3rd or 4th. But it didn't surprise me in the slightest seeing him achieve what he did the next few years - in terms of talent he was a country mile clear of the others in the WJ race.

xxx wrote:

EPO was not available during the 80s when CCO&E were racing.

epo was not available, but 2 - 3 units of packed cells with 40 - 80mg furosemide cover was, & had been for 30y before - achieving exact same effect as epo & probably even better as you coud immediately titrate to what "level" you wished to dope to ( balancing with health risks )

the 1k wr is surprisingly harder than it looks !

to get an idea of background required to beat 2'11.96, you can try this :

http://www.jundo.co.uk/

we are assuming asbel currently has 1'43.0/3'30.0, which ->

~ 46.54, 2'12.74, 4'50.30, 7'37.22, 13'27.74

his "current" ability won't do it

lets keep his 1500 fixed at 3'30 & speed up his 800 :

1'42.75 -> ~ 46.28, 2'12.54, 4'50.58, 7'38.25, 13'30.73

1'42.50 -> ~ 46.01, 2'12.34, 4'50.87, 7'39.28, 13'33.72

1'42.25 -> ~ 45.75, 2'12.14, 4'51.16, 7'40.32, 13'36.71

1'42.00 -> ~ 45.49, 2'11.94, 4'51.44, 7'41.35, 13'39.71

1'41.75 -> ~ 45.22, 2'11.74, 4'51.73, 7'42.38, 13'42.70

frankly, he can't do it with his supposed current 800 speed : to run 2'11.95 off 3'30.0, the exact 800 ability required is

~ 1'42.02

but,there is more than 1 way to skin a cat :

keep his 800 at 1'43.0, but assume faster 1500 than 3'30 :

1'43.0 with

3'29.00 -> ~ 46.83, 2'12.51, 4'48.35, 7'33.01, 13'18.02

3'28.00 -> ~ 47.13, 2'12.27, 4'46.41, 7'28.80, 13'08.30

3'27.00 -> ~ 47.42, 2'12.03, 4'44.47, 7'24.60, 12'58.58

3'26.00 -> ~ 47.71, 2'11.80, 4'42.52, 7'20.39, 12'48.86

3'25.00 -> ~ 48.01, 2'11.56, 4'40.58, 7'16.19, 12'39.15

( hicham was probably somewhere between last 2 lines )

he's not going to do it with his supposed 3'30.0 endurance, the exact 1500 ability required is

~ 3'26.65

in summary, asbel is going to have to be significantly quicker at 800 & 1500 then he currently is - best i see currently for him is a mid/high 2'12

No, there was no test for EPO in Sydney. They didn't have one until 2001. But even if they had, that doesn't mean they would catch people on them; unless you think Ramzi was clean all his career and only used Cera once just prior to Beijing!?

Ngeny didn't break the WR by "half a second", it was 0.22; which is about 1.5m.

I know blood doping is illegal (and has been since 85/86), but I read somewhere that it is undetectible!

If that is the case and blood doping is as effective or "better" than EPO as you suggest, then why do middle and long distance runners get caught taking EPO if the alternative is better and less likely to get you caught? I know you mention the health risks, but surely science has evolved enough to ensure that the right balance is given to each individual.

In the coming years, with competition from Kaki moving up from 800m as I think he intends to, Kiprop could even break the 1500m w.r. in my opinion.

As has already been mentioned, he is awesome over X.C. and 800m, he has an excellent running technique and he is very light. Maybe he could be the next really big 1500m star who could dominate like El G and Morcelli used to.

end of the running boom, rapid rise in obesity in the U.S. and UK after 1980, the turn to low mileage, speed-based miler training, and the loss of faith that non-Africans can run fast in the distances (a constant theme in the European press, as well as American track circles).

blood doping is not undetectable

infused blood whether your own or someone else's has to be stored in bags with an anti-coagulant ( e g EDTA ) otherwise it will turn into a big clot within a coupla minutes of being initially drawn off

this anti-coagulant will obviously be in your system when blood is re-infused & it can be detected - it's presence is foolproof indication of a recent tranfusion & hence doping ( there are also other tell-tale signs of transfusions - different reticulocyte count & possibly some abnormally shaped red cells )

epo has/had the advantange until recently of being very hard to detect & therefore preferred to transfusions which aren't

as for health risks of transfusions, science can't tell you when you'r at risk - some individuals may be fine with 2 or 3 units transfused ( which is what you usually need to get a viable advantage ) whereas some other equally fit athletes may end up with heart failure or a stroke with it

deanouk wrote:

No, there was no test for EPO in Sydney. They didn't have one until 2001.

"Some Africans (perhaps like Ngeny) are a hell of a lot more talented, and mentally tougher than most whites."

What sort of lame comment is that? That's like saying some Australian's are a lot taller than most Canadians! Utter nonsense.

You need to do your research. Coe's progression was gradual and he was running 1:47 at 19. Just coz Cruz ran 1:44 at 18, doesn't mean shit! Everyone develops at different rates. Heck, Kipketer's pb at 19 was only 1:45.6, and that's after he allegedly ran 1:49.6 in '85 at the age of 12! That sort of progression, 4 secs in 7 years, looks a lot more suspect. Cram's pb at 19 was 1:48.4. Your point is pointless.

Coe is a hell of a lot faster than any top 1500m runner I can think of, and the vast majority of 800m men. He ran a 45.5 relay leg in 79 and had a 200m pb of 21.6. Apart from Borza and White Lightning who else had that basic speed?

deanouk wrote:

If that is the case and blood doping is as effective or "better" than EPO as you suggest, then why do middle and long distance runners get caught taking EPO if the alternative is better and less likely to get you caught? I know you mention the health risks, but surely science has evolved enough to ensure that the right balance is given to each individual.

The reason is:

1) It's dangerous. It's a medical procedure. You can die if it's not done properly. You need a doctor to remove/reinfuse, Much easier to take a pill/injection.

2) Witnesses. Obviously records would be kept and all the medical personnel would know. Also, you would an unscrupulous doctor to do this on a healthy person who had no illness. You need practically a government culture of cheating to blood dope like the former Soviet bloc and the Finns.

"2) Witnesses. Obviously records would be kept and all the medical personnel would know. Also, you would an unscrupulous doctor to do this on a healthy person who had no illness. You need practically a government culture of cheating to blood dope like the former Soviet bloc and the Finns."

Don't forget the US cycling team at the 1984 Olympics.