13:27 with a 1:53 last 800m (would have run 13:19 in fast heat).
13:27 with a 1:53 last 800m (would have run 13:19 in fast heat).
He will win the race in 13:28.xx. Derrick top 5 in 13:37
DNF/DNS?
German Fernandez will run far behind the pack for about 3K, then he will accellerate and move up quickly to nearly catch the leaders with 800 meters to go. When the oxygen debt starts to get him and it becomes apparent that he won't win, he will have a major tear in his ankle and fall writhing on the track.
German fans, not to fear...he will recover miraculously and will be racing a week or two later. He will then show up at the NCAA championship press conference with a boot on his foot. Miraculously he will run the next day in the 5K Finals.
13:45, losing in his heat
Tinman wrote:
Will he run sub-13:30? sub-13:20?
What's your guess?
German Fernandez will run 13:27.24
He definitely won't be under 13:20 though. Under 13:30 will still be amazing though, however, im sure he'll get plenty of shit by all the haters.
One thing is for certain though: German can't touch guys like Rupp or Chelanga...yet. In time he will catch up but as of right now he's out of their league, which is understandable, he's a youngin'!
13:45
13:34.5
13:23 Although sub `13:20 wouldn't surprise me even in a slower heat. Keep in mind this the same kid who ran 3:55 by himself. Fernandez has shown he has the ability to run fast all alone. I don't think the time will depend on who's in the race with him, but rather what kind of shape he's actually in.
Definitely sub-15:00 if he runs. Maybe sub-14:00.
13:42 tempo
The best indicator is his 7:47i 3,000m
Of that he could do around 13:22. As he lacks experience on 5km say 13:30
ukathleticscoach wrote:
The best indicator is his 7:47i 3,000m
Of that he could do around 13:22. As he lacks experience on 5km say 13:30
I agree 100% (hence my earlier prediction). To me, 3:55.02 mile solo is more impressive than that 7:47 being raced to the brink. I know everyone (including himself and his coach) has talked about him being better at longer distances, but up to this point, I've been most impressed with his abilities/times over the mile. I don't see him going easy and blasting the last mile like folks have predicted. German seems to run/race best when everything is smooth and steady with no sudden shifting of paces. Eventually, he will be a El G type: go out hard and learn to press that peddle every 100 meters, progressively getting faster and faster until he's running at top speed. At least...I hope becomes like El G (and Olympic champ).
13:24.78
13:36.51
13:29.80
My guess is 13:30, which is all it will take to win the heat with a good kick.
Its unfortunate that with all the hype, it almost seems like if he gets second in 13:35 it would be a terrible race, when in face it would be awesome.
Just out of curiousity, why are he and Coe in the slower heat? I know niether have run a fast 5K but they are two of the brighest stars coming up and both could really pop a fast one. Based on their 3k times, each could run under 13:30.
When German ran 7:47 he edged out Coe who ran 7:48. In that same race about 4-6 seconds back was Brandon Bethke, who just ran a 13:27. With Coe's recent 3:56 and German running the way he has they may be able to work together to get under 13:20.
ukathleticscoach wrote:
The best indicator is his 7:47i 3,000m
Of that he could do around 13:22. As he lacks experience on 5km say 13:30
We also don't know if he is at the same fitness level as he was for the 7:47...and granted he could be in better shape.
I think 13:35.