Which country would win if the DMR was an Olympic event?

I know that the impulse of the IOC now is not to add new events but rather to dump some, but Great Britain could put together a decent DMR, maybe even a bronze medal contender ...though I know it's too late to add anything for 2012 in London. But if Chicago gets the 2016 Games, it would nice for USATF to push for a DMR. I mean...we do have a fairly large running populace of millions, after all.

Avocados Number wrote: Think how good Great Britain would have been in the early '80s. On a team with Coe, Ovett, and Cram, who would anchor?

I don't think you could go wrong with any of them in any spot (aside from the 400). Coe would surely be the best 1200 guy, but I think I would put him on the 800 because he was significantly faster than the other two there. Then put Cram on the 1200, I don't think he would be much slower than Coe here if at all, and Ovett, probably the best tactical racer, on the 1600.

...only because Sean O'Brien sucked running 4:02. We were up by 3 seconds going in to the 1600.

upstate assistant wrote:

http://pennrelaysonline.com/Results/236.html

Not truly an all-star team, but the USA teams (especially the blue team) were significantly better on paper than the Kenyan team. And we still got wiped.

agreer of things wrote:

Yep, I was going to say that too. If you put the 1:43/3:46 Webb at 1200, he would hand off in the lead. Wariner or Merritt runs 43-mid and puts 1.5 seconds on Kenya's guy. Symmonds loses a little to the Kenyan but at worst hands off tied for the lead. Then we let Lagat do his thing.

You guys are morons if you think America would keep up with Kenya, especially with those guys. You think Webb and Lagat will have the lead? Hiw did they finish in the Olympics? Right. One didn't make the games and the other didn't make the final. How did the Kenyans do? 2nd and 4th.

How did Symmonds do in the 800? Again, didn't make the final. The Kenyans, 1st and 4th.

Also, get it through your head that at no time was Webb the best in the world. So he ran a 3:46. That doesn't mean shit. There are a half dozen runners that could have run 3:46 on that day and they would have all outkicked him. The rest of the world is not interested in time-trialing a mile. A better indication of where Webb stood at his peak is to check where his top 1500 meter time lands on the all time list. And it is way down there.

Qatar, Morrocco, Bahrain would be battling for second. I mean come on. You are talking about guys who are winning Grand Prix races week after week against guys that would have trouble getting invited to the same meets.

Anyone think it is farce that their isn't one distance race in the DMR? How about the 10k/5k/3k/3kst relay for a true DMR?

What about Ethiopia?

West siiiiiide wrote:

There are a half dozen runners that could have run 3:46 on that day and they would have all outkicked him.

I don't disagree that Kenya would be a prohibitive favorite, but you're way out of line here in saying that 3:46 is meaningless. Let's say we call 3:46 equivalent to somewhere about 3:30 flat at worst -- there have never been six runners going sub-3:30 on any single day. Ever. The best ever sixth-place finish in a 1500m was William Tanui's 3:31.30 at the famous 1997 Weltklasse meet. (For the mile, the best sixth place was Shabunin's 3:49.83 at the 2001 Golden Gala.)

The issue here is that we're dealing with probabilities, not absolutes. Webb ran 3:46 once, but wasn't consistent at that level. Kenya has a series of runners -- which ones in particular varies from year to year -- who will run 3:30-3:31 week after week. That means if you put one in a relay, you might have a 75% chance of having them go sub-3:50, as opposed to a 10% chance of squeezing a 3:46 out of Webb.

agreer of things wrote:

Yep, I was going to say that too. If you put the 1:43/3:46 Webb at 1200, he would hand off in the lead. Wariner or Merritt runs 43-mid and puts 1.5 seconds on Kenya\'s guy. Symmonds loses a little to the Kenyan but at worst hands off tied for the lead. Then we let Lagat do his thing.

Webb, Wariner/Merritt, KD, Lagat

Imagine....

Ngeny, Johnson, Kipketer, El Guerrouj in 1999.

This is speculative, not saying if they had one at Beijing. If so, we would have gotten wiped for sure, what with the mental condition the currently-suggested squad of Webb, Wariner, KD, and Lagat was in.

BUT

If all of these guys were in top condition (and they ALL--yes, even Webb--have raced with the best in the world and won), and the Kenyans were in top condition, it would be a very close race to be sure.

Now, if we caught the Kenyans in the middle of their fabled 2-month off-season where they allegedly gain 20 pounds and don't run a step, I bet you can predict what the results would be.

hold the phone wrote:

The best ever sixth-place finish in a 1500m was William Tanui's 3:31.30 at the famous 1997 Weltklasse meet.

Webb's best ever 1500 is 3:30.56. So pretty close.

hold the phone wrote:

(For the mile, the best sixth place was Shabunin's 3:49.83 at .

Supports my point that the mile is week internationally.

I cannot believe no one has mentioned Spain. Except for the Lagat anomaly, they consistantly have three or four 1500-meter runners ahead of our best guy.

1) True, the American milers bombed in 2008. But in 2007 - that's a different story. Since this whole thing is speculative anyway, I reserve the right to say that in 2007 the United States would have whooped Kenya's ass.

2) No, Webb was never the best in the world, but for one season he put up the fastest times (both mile AND 1500). Plus, he doesn't even need to be the fastest in the world, he just needs to be faster than Kenya's number 2 miler, who I assume would also be running the 1200. In 2007, Webb would have run a faster 12 than Kenya's number 2.

3) Now the 400 leg - Wariner ran 43.50 or faster twice in 2007. The fastest Kenyan? Not on the IAAF top list, which ends at 45.44. So Wariner is putting a full 2 seconds on Kenya just in the 400 leg.

4) For the 800 leg you just need Symmonds or Robinson to put down a 1:45. Webb already gave them a slight lead and Wariner put two more seconds on the Kenyans, so with a 1:45 the worst that happens is Kenya catches up (which would require a hell of a leg).

5) Then we simply hand off to the 2007 double world champion, Bernard Lagat. You can't run away from him and you can't outkick him (in 2007). USA wins.

"(Going by official DMR regulations [1200,400,800,1600])

(The 1600 times are actually full mile distance times)

(1200m times are the countries next fastest 800/1500 runner, using the Mercier Scoring table converting their time to a 1000 and then adding 27.00 for the final 200)

(All times are taken from the IAAF 2008 World Rankings)

*Horrible NBC announcer*

And here we have it ladies and gentlemen. In it's inaugular debute in the Olympics, the Distance Medley Relay. After very tight heats, there are 8 teams vying for the first DMR Olympic Gold Medal.

In Lane 1: USA, Lane 2: Great Brittain, Lane 3: Kenya, Lane 4: Canada, Lane 5: France. Lane 6: Spain. Lane 7: Algeria. Lane 8: Russia.

*Gun goes off*

Off with the first leg, the 1200m. The athletes make to the break point 100m in bunched up with Algeria's Antar Zerguelaine and Kenya's Augustine Choge setting the early pace. They remain close over the next 900m until Choge pulls away, handing off the baton in the lead with a split of 2:47.43. The Kenyans are out fast, but after Andrew Wheating's 2:49.10 and handing off to the worlds fastest 400m runner, the US are hot on their heels.

Wariner gets the baton and evidently is on a mission. Also moving up is Canada's Tyler's Christopher. Though Canada may lack the 1200/1600 depth of a country like Kenya, they have one of the best 400/800 combinations in Christopher and last years 800m World Silver Medalist, Gary Reed. Coming into the homestretch Wariner surpasses Ezra Sambu of Kenya, spliting a 43.98 and brining USA through in 3:33.08, with Kenya right behind in 3:33.16. Rounding out the top three is Algeria in 3:34.11, who are hanging tight after a strong 1200m by Antak Zerguelaine.

The 800m runners are off on a blistering pace with Kenya's David Lekuta Rudisha retaking the lead while American Nick Symmonds drops to third as Aleria's Nadjim Manseur passes him. Coming through the bell lap, Yuriy Borzakovskiy is doing all he can to move his Russian team back into contention. However coming down the homestretch Kenya continues to pull away with Rudisha splitting a 1:43.72. Symmonds running true to his form put together a strong second lap bringing the US back into second, trailing the Kenyans by 3 tenths of a second at 5:17.18 to 5:16.88. Borzakovskiy pulled his Russian team up to third after a blistering 1:42.78 and nearly surpassing the whole field on his second lap, giving Russia a split of 5:18.05

Coming into the final leg the drama couldn't be heightened more. Kenya's Daniel Komen who has consistently been near the top of the World Rankings goes up and with a slight lead against ex-countrymate Bernard Lagat. Lagat having run a 3:26 1500m in his prime has dropped off slightly and could be dampered from already double-golding in the 1500m and 5000m. Nonetheless, this two horse showdown has the whole Birdsnest on their feet.

Komen takes it out at a very quick pace with Lagat letting the gap grow slightly. Going through the first lap, Komen splits a 56.04 with Lagat trailing by about 10meters. Climbing back into the race is Algeria, led by Tarek Boukensa. Coming through 600m into the final leg, Lagat begins closing the gap on Komen, now within 5m, the American is looking poised and comfortable in his effortless stride. However hitting halfway the gap remains the same but Boukensa is closing in on Lagat. Behind him is a tight pack with runners from Great Britain, Canada, France's Mehdi Baala and Spain. Komen begins to reopen the gap on Lagat coming into the bell and Boukensa is now neck and neck with Lagat. The chase group remains tight. Coming into the last two hundred meters, Komen is far ahead however it is Algeria's Boukensa on a rampage trying to run him down. Lagat seems to be slowed down from all the previous races of his third Olympics, but is putting in a valiant effort to hold onto third. Canada's Nate Brannen is putting in a late charge trying to catch Lagat but more importantly holding off the rest of the world's competition. But there's no catching Kenya's Komen.

Komen crosses the line and his 3:48.52 mile helps the Kenyans set a new world record by just over twenty seconds at 9:05.30. The University of Texas previously held the record. After a sensational mile, 3:49.05, by Tarek Bounesa, Algeria snags silver in 9:07.91. The Americans remain on the podium with a 9:09.65. Nate Brannen held on to 4th place for the Canadian team, coming through in 9:10.37. They were followed closely by Great Britain in 9:10.68, France 9:10.84 and Spain in 9:10.94. Rounding out the field is Russia in 9:13.61

Lane 1: USA

Andrew Wheating: 2:49.10

Jeremy Wariner: 43.98

Nick Symmonds: 1:44.10

Bernard Lagat: 3:52.47

Final time: 9:09.65

Lane 2: Great Britain

Thomas Lancashire: 2:49.75

Martyn Rooney: 44.72

Michael Rimmer: 1:44.68

Andrew Baddeley: 3:51.63

Final Time: 9:10.68

Lane 3: Kenya

Augustine Choge: 2:47.43

Ezra Sambu: 45.73

David Lekuta Rudisha: 1:43.72

Daniel Komen: 3:48.52

Final Time: 9:05.30

Lane 4: Canada

Kevin Sullivan: 2:50.03

Tyler Christopher: 44.71

Gary Reed: 1:43.68

Nathan Brannen: 3:51.95

Final time: 9:10.37

Lane 5: France

Mounir Yemmoni: 2:49.79

Brice Etes: 44.95

Leslie Djhone: 1:47.03

Mehdi Baala: 3:49.07

Final Time: 9:10.84

Lane 6: Spain

Arturo Casado: 2:48.39

Miguel Quesada: 46.76

Manuel Olmedo: 1:45.20

Juan Carlos Higuero: 3:49.69

Final time: 9:10.94

Lane 7: Algeria

Antar Zerguelaine: 2:48.51

Nabil Madi: 45.24

Nadjim Manseur: 1:44.75

Tarek Boukensa: 3:49.05

Final time: 9:07.91

Lane 8: Russia

Dmitriy Bogdanov: 2:50.11

Denis Alekseyev 45.35

Yuriy Borzakovskiy: 1:42.79

Vyacheslav Shabynin: 3:55.56

Final time: 9:13.61

That is probably pretty close to how things would turn out. Some times would certainly be different, like Wariner, due to the flat start. I might put together an all-time DMR, depends how much time i have."

This why I come to LetsRun.

POD

In fantasyland maybe. Webb finished eighth in the 1500 in 2007. So when it really counted, he was the eighth best. Kenya's number two guy finished 4th. Yet you say he would have finished ahead of Kenya's number two guy. How does that happen? It shows you the difference between a real race and a PR, which is meaningless once the gun goes off.

This is not the way relays happen. If you combine the PR's of the US members against the Bahamas PR's, they would have won by eight seconds. Yet they only won by 3.5 seconds. They only beat Poland by 4.5 seconds. Yet their fastest guy ran 45.33 that year. And do you really think Wariner would run 43.50 having to go around eight guys after Webb hands him the baton? They don't run in lanes you know. Again, shows you the difference between a real race and a PR.

How did these guys do in the open 800? Well, they didn't even make the final. The Kenyans on the other hand finished 1st and 5th. So Robinson would start behind and have the task of making up ground on the freakin World Champ. Not gonna happen.

Which brings me to my final point. The only chance the US had of beating Kenya in 2007 is if Lagat ran the 1200, 800, and 1600 legs.

Avocados Number wrote:

I wouldn't say that "it's not really fair." Rather, some members of the team are simply much more important than others. In baseball, a team with a great pitcher can beat a team with superior players in the other eight positions. In American football, a team with a great quarterback or running back can beat a team with a superior group of offensive linemen. In soccer (football), a team with a great goalie can beat a team with superior players in most other positions.

You musn't know much about American football.

Could the USA master the baton passing needed to win?

just give the baton to rupp in 2nd and USA FTW.

but in all sincerity i think a dmr would be an awesome event to watch at the olympics, regardless of whether or not it 'favors' a particular distance

Stan the Man wrote:

Prince Charles could anchor that team.

Even Mark Lewis Francis could as long as there was no burger joint within a mile of the stadium.