Chris Derrick will beat German Fernandez at World XC

I really need to get some repairs on my SUV. What say we put our money where our mouths are. He finished WJXC last year, and he is well over a minute ahead of his time last year. When you have been bitch slapped as much as so many of us, by the HERMANN!!!!!you become a kind of Stockholm Syndrome survivor. I think he may even be able to go top 13 overall. But you guys are already calling that.

German will win over Derrick. End of question. How can you even argue this? running a 3:55 then running 7:57 you guys are telling me he is not strong enough for cross. how many people can double like that? you have to be fit and strong to do that. Derrick ran 7:58 and got second and that was the only event he ran. German ran the mile and then the 3k. hmmm... simple facts. Im not saying the German is going to roll everyone up. Derrick is very good and any given day he could beat German. But, dont come up here and say Derrick is better and German is doing the wrong workouts. Because we dont know i dont know. the only people that knows is German and his coach. so, good luck to German and Derrick.

i agree that german is probably the greatest distance runner has ever produced but alan webb ran 3:53.43 in high school.

i can see german not getting to that level even in his first year or two of college. i think german is more of a complete package, 1500-xc, head to toe, than alan, so i agree that he's the best talent we've got (or have had in the past).

alan did sort of get things cooking in america again. hard to say he's not the best talent. i guess only a guy as special as german deserves that type of label.

We do have some clue of OSU's training as it has been posted on flotrack, i.e. mile repeats in the fall while standing around for 3 to 5 minutes in between. Racing fast miles indoors, and comparatively mediocre 3k's.

Meanwhile Derrick and Puskedra are rounding into form with 3k's and 5k's.

It's an exciting time. I hope they all run well and enjoy their races at the wccc.

What a bunch of idiots, if you think Derrick is going to beat Fernandez. Fernandez is so strong right now, and these shorter races are just going to help him out there on the xc course. He'll be ready to change gears and respond with a change of pace when the time comes. You better believe Fernandez is prepping for this xc race. He wouldn't be willing to skip indoors if he wasn't serious about this race. He wants to test himself against the best runners in the world at the same age. You heard it here, Fernandez will beat Derrick by over 15 seconds. If it doesn't happen then I basically put my foot in my mouth. I will be very surprised if it doesn't happen though.

haha, YO wrote:

He's already the fastest in collegiate history (well, maybe .02 off) as an 18 year old freshman.

Could also be .07 faster... Touche?

the next Vipam wrote:

Name a guy who is a remote threat for the SENIOR XC race is running anything like what Fernandez is running?

I believe there was this one guy... pretty good at XC... maybe Bekele was his name? Anyways, he'd run indoor 2000m and 3000m races to tune up for World XC. Can't remember how he'd place though... I think he usually did alright. Yes? No?

Paul G wrote:

You heard it here, Fernandez will beat Derrick by over 15 seconds. If it doesn't happen then I basically put my foot in my mouth. I will be very surprised if it doesn't happen though.

15 seconds????

If he's not a minute ahead of both of them then something is amiss.

J.R. wrote:

We do have some clue of OSU's training as it has been posted on flotrack, i.e. mile repeats in the fall while standing around for 3 to 5 minutes in between. Racing fast miles indoors, and comparatively mediocre 3k's.

Meanwhile Derrick and Puskedra are rounding into form with 3k's and 5k's.

It's an exciting time. I hope they all run well and enjoy their races at the wccc.

Comparatively mediocre 3k's, eh? 7:47 to win with a massive negative split is not good enough for you? I know, not as good as 3:55, but come on, you're clearly implying that Derrick and Puskedra are training much smarter. How do we know that?

Just let me know when Derrick or Puskedra run a mediocre sub-7:50 3k.

And by the way, Wang Junxia was doped to the freaking gills.

german fernandez is a 5k-10k runner who just ran a solo 3:55 mile indoors.

he sure looks like the real thing to me, i expect him to be in the top 5 at worlld xc, and i can see him getting rono's 13:08 (the REAL ncaa record) in the next 15 months.

my standard for world class is someone who makes the all time top 100 list in a championship (I added the non championship distance of a mile because of its popularity and because many readers are more familar with the mile then 1500) event, and i believe fernandez is capable of getting to world class in the 1500 (to make the list NOW he would have to run about a 3:33.00) the mile (now at 3:51.7) 5k (about 13:03 now at 13:03) 10k (now at 27:23).

other people will make the list harder to get on as new people run better than these current times, but i think he can someday get into the top 100 in these 4 events.

i really feel this is a legitimate world class to be prospect.

I'm a fan of Derrick as well as Fernandez and Puskedra. I'd love to see Derrick challenge for top runner, but for now his sparring partner is Puskedra. His conference 3000 was just a little disappointing. I can't imagine him being a threat to German if he can't beat Centrowitz's 7:55. Had German run the 3000 first with the same effort he did in the mile he may have challenged the world junior record of 7:40.83.

So far German has won every big race he's finished very handily. I think World XC will be the first time we really see what he can do against real competition since his hot streak started last spring.

Why do people keep saying German is primarily a 5k and 10k runner, when his times at shorter distances, especially the mile, are so much better?

Not trying to be snarky, I seriously wonder where this idea comes from that he gets better with longer distances, when his times show the reverse.

my opinion is watching him race, that his speed is not that good for a 1500/miler, his strength is in his sense of pace, in his 3:55 mile his splits he ran 58point, 58point, 59 point, 58 point he ran very evenly, same thing with his 1600/3200 double at state extremely even splits. to be a 1500/miler you need about 46-48 speed and i dont see him having that (if someone knows how fast he can run a 400 please tell us) but he may someday be able to run 3:31-3:32 off of strength, but i cant seeing him outsprinting the very top guys in the 1500/mile, maybe he can close a 5/10k in 52-53 though someday.

his sense of pace is extraordinary, if his desire was to be a rabbit he could be the best rabbit ever with his sense of pace.

i cant see him ever outkicking the worlds top milers, but i could see him hanging with a high 59 pace for 3k, meaning sub 7:30, 61-62 pace for 5k and 63-64 pace for 10k meaning faster than the american records at 5 and 10k.

Steady pacing doesn't make a guy better at longer distances. And lack of 46-48 quarter speed doesn't make him a 10k guy.

I just haven't seen anything at all to indicate he's better at the longer distances. I see German's best event, so far, as 1500/mile and his second best distance as 3000/2 mile.

He has run truly noteworthy times for 1 and 2 mile distances (and equivalents) but not so much for the higher distances, where he has been very good, and promising, but not as great.

He is better at the longer distances. Most certainly, that is where his future potential lies. If he's ever going to be an Olympic threat it'll be in the 5k or 10k. This isn't to say he can't be an Olympian at 1500.

Throughout his entire HS career he consistently performed better at the 3200 than the 1600, and his first noteworthy performance was the CA state XC meet as a sophomore.

And he has put up great performaces over 8k xc. While he has ran his most impressive time in the mile, he hasn't taken serious attempts at 5k times. Give it some time.

Plus, his stride is clearly that of a distance runner.

To paraphrase:

"Derrick is better prepared bc he has raced a 5k and a few 3ks and German has raced a mile twice and two 3ks (one being a double)"

That is your logic? Even though German looked substantually better at the 3k than Derrick (even after running a 3:55 solo mile)?

Training:

I havent heard anyone claim to know either's training plan in great detail. From what i have heard they are both taking World XC seriously.

Racing:

You are correct, Coach Smith using a few shorter races as "speed sessions" or whatever they are calling them will undoubtably help him round into shape. I would imagine that Coach Smith has considered that in setting up his training plan. As far as not having event specific plans i cannot speak for the other guys but i would think his event is XC and the outdoor 5k that he has mentioned in interviews and they were prob just referring to non-indoor event specific plans.

Overall, i dont see how you say that he isnt as well prepared when racing a few shorter races instead of a few speed sessions seems to be a viable option. And one that would instill a lot more confidence in a young runner going into a world championship.

I agree! Heck I can beat German Fernandez if he falls in a race and he don't get back up. Yes they can beat him if he is having an off day and they are spot on! Derrick is an AMAZING talent and he can beat Fernandez but in my opinion if they race 10 times in 8k cross country and all things equal- German would probably win 8 of the 10. That's not saying Chris Derrick is bad, German is just that good! If German is having a good day at World Jr he should be shooting for top 3!

I predict cake will not be a deciding factor.Also, if German cannot eat the cake he has, and obviously he cannot eat the cake he does not have, then he is going to be sad on his birthday.

the next Vipam wrote:

You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Herman will win