Predict the Tour de France winner.

As much as I believe that you'd have to be a total idiot to think that Armstrong was clean, it's still amazing to think that the guy was able to string seven victories together and avert disasters like this time and again. Just off the top of my head, I can remember the fall after a spectator's bag caught his handlebars and the subsequent slip not clipping in correctly with his shoe, the near miss when he had to avert the fallen Spanish cyclist right in front of him and cut through that field to rejoin the peloton after they came around the sharp bend, and the severe dehydration that almost did him in (not to mention Ullrich's multiple crashes in the time trial). It takes more than drugs and talent and hard work to win the tour. It takes a great team, a good bit of strategy, and a MAJOR amount of luck.

oh well:)

phstenning wrote:

So far Sastre hasn't done any real damange in the mountains, and given he's weak in the TT it's hard to see how he can win. Think Evans still holds the cards, he knows he "just" has to defend on Alp D'Huez and he's there. Doubt anyone will be able to sustain a big break today.

Team CSC did a great job of breaking up the pursuit of their teammate Carlos Sastre, who now has a lead of 1:34 over Cadel Evans. That might be just enough to win the tour, assuming that Sastre can ride the Time Trial of his life on Saturday.

Living in the Past wrote:

Carlos Sastre. Rides with the strongest team, CSC. Has kept a very low profile so far, but is now 49 seconds behind the overall leader, who is his team mate Frank Schleck. My prediction is that Sastre proves to be dominant over the remaining mountain stages, including l'Alpe d'Huez.

Good call. The Schleck brothers were just Rabbits. They were just upsetting the rythm of the chase group today on Alpe D'Huez by making little attacks on the Evans group once Sastre broke away. Sastre destroyed them and is now the likely winner. Andy Schleck will be good next year. He looked very impressive climbing.

Sastre. Wow.

vdv had a great ride today. He seems to be looking forward to next year. Maybe Garmin can get some decent teammates for him in 09.

Sagarin wrote:

As much as I believe that you'd have to be a total idiot to think that Armstrong was clean,

Why do you think he did drugs? Because he was great? Maybe he just worked harder than anyone else...(which if you knew anything about professional cycling you would know at some level this is possible)...maybe he trained smarter...maybe he was just better suited for it (obviously if you know anything about his childhood)....I am sick of idiots like you that don't know jack about the situation coming in and saying...well Armstrong was so good he must have been on something...if you know ANYTHING about the tour you know they test like CRAZY and you know that Armstrong was tested like no other!!!!!! And he never showed a single positive test!!!! And yet you still think he was on drugs!!! Some people clearly don't understand hard work and you sir are one of them and its disgusting.

After today, my picks for the podium are:

1. Evans

2. Sastre

3. Menchov

There was a 1:16 spread between Sastre and Evans in the first TT. I have to go with Evans for the win.

I'm curious about yesterday. Augustyn lost his bike. The Mavic car was there with bikes on its roof. Why didn't he get one of those? What's the point of those bikes if not for something like that?

I agree with this guy. Evans, Menchov, and Vandevelde are all great time trialers (top 8 in the first one), much better than Sastre, Schleck, and Kohl. Vandevelde will ride well but is too far behind to make the podium. A great Tour for him though. Sastre will hold on for second but unless he rpoduces a phenomenal ride Evans will get him. Stage 20 is going to be a great one.

Further to what I just posted on Augustyn, here's a video for those who missed it: http://video.bicycling.com/item/HRN6BTY2L5CBK402

If Evans doesn't make up any time on Sastre before the TT in Paris, he'll have to make up a 1:34 deficit, which he might well be capable of. The TT course on Saturday is fast, with an overall elevation drop of 91 meters, which probably favors Evans. The course is 53 km long. The first TT course was a point-to-point over 29.5 km.

I think there is another mountain stage tomorrow...Sastre could be increasing his lead?!?

I wonder if it was by design to take the jersey from his teammate? Or should he have stayed to support him in the final miles of the climb.

Somewhere Greg Lemond is throwing his hands up...

Thats a good question. I was wondering before todays stage how CSC would use all of its weapons. It all worked out brilliantly. It appeared the yellow jersey Schleck (not sure his name) was having a off day. I would guess that the plan was for Sastre to attack at the bottom. The Schlecks were to follow wheels pretty much from there. If Sastre would have gotten pulled back the Schlecks would have had the green light to counter attack. Didnt happen and everything worked out perfect for Sastre. The chasers were attacking eachother and then slowing down so much that it led to Sastres steady effort being over 2 minutes quicker. This is obviously just my take.

There was a moment with 4 or 5k to go where the Schlecks and Valverde got a gap. If yellow jersey Schleck would have had the legs they would have had the green light to keep it going. Apparently he didnt though.

Another thing. If Cadel can pull off the overall with such a weak team it will be pretty amazing. CSC has so many different ways to try and break him in the mountains its just incredible that he might be able to pull off the overall. He's been isolated with no teamates on all the important climbs.

Cadel Evans and Carlos Sastre finish in same time on Thursday's Stage 18. Sastre will probably have to add some time to his lead tomorrow if he's going to have a chance to win the overall tour.

I doubt whether Sastre's 1:34 lead will be enough to fend off Evans in the TT on Saturday.

I have been surprised that Popovich (spelling?) has not been able to help Evans more. Last year he did a lot of work for his guys in the mountains.

One of the Tour commentators on the Versus Channel, Phil Liggett, said that Team CSC had put in a lot of work on time trialing and that Sastre might perform better on Saturday than a lot of people think. Maybe that's why Team CSC didn't attack as hard on Thursday as they did on Wednesday. My hunch is that Evans and Sastre will have the same time on Friday and then fight it out for the overall win on Saturday, which should be a great day to watch the Tour.

The commentators on the Versus channel have picked Carlos Sastre as the overall winner. We'll find out tomorrow. Should be an exciting day.