Abdi or Hall

i would call it a toss up. recently abdi has had great success in everything but xc. hall has had recent success in everything but track. abdi has much more experience and is really seeming to creep up on the top marathon runners in the world without too many people noticing. hall on the other hand has just jumped right in the mix making a big splash immediately.

i don't think anyone has a "guaranteed" spot on team as anything can happen in the marathon but i would think a short list would include:

abdi, hall, meb, sell, and culpepper

the real darkhorse in my opinion could be goucher. if he decides to debut at the trials i think he could make the team. i don't think it is all that likely given that he is hurt right now but the guy is probably the toughest contender in the field if he chooses to run.

startling news wrote:

Abdi will set an american record in the 10k over the next year and he will finish 6th in the Olympic Games in the 10k. He will then win the Chicago marathon in 2:06:55. He will not make the team for the marathon.

Hall will be struggling over the next year trying to recreate the magic.

Ritz will not run the trials.

Khalid will never FINISH another marathon. He will be rumored to be running in every mahor marathon over the next 2 years.

1. Sell-they will let him go and he won't come back.

2. Culpepper-will out run Meb over the last mile.

3. Meb

Ain't no magic in distance running. Hall and Abdi will both probably make the team (ain't no definitely in marathon running, either.) I'd like to see Sell make the team too.

I figure that the NYC 1/2 marathon course is worth around 30 seconds compared to a pancake-flat-fast, which puts Abdi closer to Hall, but not up with him. Abdi seems more consistent overall, however. Sell will be smart to gun for the third spot.

midwesta wrote:

you guys do remember that meb was the silver medalist right? I'll go:

1. Abdi

2. Meb

3. Hall or Sell.

Uh, so? And KK was the world record holder. It's all about what have you done for me lately... Meb bombed at NYC (granted, food poisoning, but nonetheless) and dnf'd London. Having said that, if he's healthy, then I think he will certainly be in the mix. However, he's had a long stretch of very good performances... it's bound to end sometime.

lol@tards wrote:

el troll wrote:

He will not run close to 2:06... possibly a 2:08 in his future.

he's ALREADY run 2:08...

Yeah, my bad... was thinking it was a 2:09 this year at Chicago, not 2:08. I still think 2:06 is a stretch for him.

Hey,

Abdi, Hall and Meb are all in sub 2:09 shape and are all contenders to make the Oly marathon team. When was the last time the US had three 2:08 marathoners to send to an Olympics? I think this might be a first.

The heck with all you naysayers out there, US distance running hasn't been this exciting for many, many years.

I would definately love to see Sell make the team, although Meb, Abdi and Hall might have something to say about that.

Hall, Abdi, Cabada.

Meb, Culpepper, best days behind them.

Sell just a tad too slow, 4th place. Unfortunate because I'd like to see him make it.

Sell unlike any of the other guys has made very large improvements over the last few years and i could see him having a very big break through race at the trials.

Abdi can pace with Hall in the marathon. Abdi would also be the better bet to close better.

Closing speed is overated in the marathon.

I understand tracks offer exact distances, but I wasn't aware that long point-to-point courses are deemed less valid:

"Abdirahman ran 1:00:29, the #2 time ever by an American on a somewhat hilly course (although the point to point course isn't valid to most statisticians for record purposes)."

This suggests that loop courses are more valid. But automatically?

Also, there's been no mention of Culpepper's 6th place, 1:03 finish. While I know it pales in comparison to the aforementioned performaces by Abdi and Hall, what was Alan's goal going in to the race?

There are eight guys who have a chance to make the team: Abdi, Hall, Meb, Cabada, Sell, Gilmore, Culpepper, and Ritz (maybe Bizuneh is a ninth possibility). I can't see anyone else in the picture. The first three guys have to be considered the clear favorites, but as everyone knows, anything can happen in a marathon. I think the big surprise is going to be Ritz. Many are down on him because of his 2:14, but I see that time in a favorable light. First, on a flat course, it's clearly worth 2:12. Second, he made several crucial mistakes in the race. For starters, he went too early. Had he stayed with Baldini, I think he would have run at least a minute faster. Also, he didn't hydrate early enough, and that cost him dearly. I'm picking Abdi, Meb, and Ritz. Also, I don't think Sell will push the pace this time around, but I think Hall will.

Bizuneh is training with Kimbia in the buildup to the trials..People can catch his training on the chasing kimbia website...he's a darkhorse to sneak on to the team and I think that he just might do it....GO SUNDEVILS

Noone can hold a torch to Abdi right now if he maintains his current form and Meb just has too much experience and knows how to perform on the biggest stage. Meb will again medal in Beijing. I think that the double Olympians of Meb and Abdi are near shoe-ins... The favorite for the third spot is Alan, not Ryan....again it comes to experience. That being said, I'm an ASU alum and would love to see Bizuneh make the team..

1.Abdi

2.Meb

3.Culpeper, Gilmore, Hall, Bizuneh, or Sell

Top 10:

Cabada, Briney, Shay

Noz4nuz wrote:

Also, there's been no mention of Culpepper's 6th place, 1:03 finish. While I know it pales in comparison to the aforementioned performaces by Abdi and Hall, what was Alan's goal going in to the race?

Alan is a Nike athlete.. I think he probably only went to make them happy. And scout the run course for the trials? I'll go with the "gnarled-veteran-old-guy" in Alan for the trials win..

Does Sell really run 7000 mile per year? 134 miles per week average? If he does, and holds that mileage leading in to the trials, then he won't place top 5.. he'll be too tired.

Ritz is not running the trials..

newrunnr wrote:

[quote]Noz4nuz wrote:

Does Sell really run 7000 mile per year? 134 miles per week average? If he does, and holds that mileage leading in to the trials, then he won't place top 5.. he'll be too tired.

Brian has run as much as 167 miles in a week, and probably has run more miles in the past 4 yrs. than any of the other top contenders. He's done this leading up to his strong runs in Boston, Chicago, and Helsinki (a race which everyone seems to have forgotten in their analysis of this year's Trials) Aside from Meb, have any of the others had that kind of success in a championship, non-time trial race?

And what is the basis for your claim?