Renato Canova, Jason in, Wejo, Malmo etc...input on Ryan Hall's 2007 10000m/marathoning potential?

Nobby wrote:

I would tend to agree with MAYEROFF except not Tokyo but Beppu.

The thing for his future is that, if he can't sprint, he can't win interntainal 10k down. It doesn't matter what potential you might have, if you can't sprint, you'll be out of medal.

Don't think of the marathon as "the last resort" and miss out the opportunity. At least that's what Japanese would think (except for Takaoka...unfortunately).

Exactly, he doesn't have the wheels for a championship 10k. Before people go off about how he was a 5/15 guy. Let me remind you of the 2003 World Championships 10k with the 12:57. If he's not a sub-13 5k guy then he doesn't have a shot at a world medal in the 10k. The marathon is a totally different animal and anything can happen. To be truly elite his focus needs to be the marathon not the 10k.

In the Olympic marathon, out of 10 favorites, at least 7 would make mistakes (sorry, I don't have the exact statistics for number-oriented readers). If you are good and don't make mistakes, you'll have a chance to win a medal. History reveals many of these examples.

Elite athletes have a choice of either going after money, which is totally understandable, or going after Olympic/World Championships medal. And sometimes you'll have to choose the most suitable event. If you want the medal in the Olympics, there's no point of saying "I'm great at 15k," because it's not the Olympic event. You can still go around the counry, running the halves or 10-milers, picking up lots of checks.

bad connection wrote:

My only concern is that Hall coming from a 1,500m/5,000m background uses carbohydrates at too high of a rate at this point in his career and doesn't have as great of an aerobic fat power as needed. Of course with training this can be fixed, but it's only been a year or so since he was a middle distance runner.

That's what I suspect happened to Ritz and he was a 5/10k guy, not a 15/5k guy.

Remember the half marathon is based on Lactate threshold and things like that. The marathon is based on FUEL. Totally different ball game.

You get it.

Well Hall may be a lot faster (now) than you are giving him credit for. Stop limiting the guy. It's so...American and pessimistic.

Nobby

Sorry but I disagree about if you can't sprint you can't win a medal. There have been instances were athletes aren't very good kickers and still medal in major championships. Two that quickly come to mind were at the biggest dance the Olympics:

John Ngugi (5000m) after one lap he thru in a 4:01-4:03 mile and then started running hard on the back straight every lap and easily won Gold.

Paula Ivan (1500m) after being outkicked by T. Samelenko in the 3000m. Paula Ivan determine to win gold ran sub 63 first lap and sub 2:10 800m in the Olympic final and won in 3:53 over 6 seconds ahead of 2nd place.

While it would be alot harder to do it at major Championships now its not impossible. It have been proven athletes with less than killer kicks but with great endurance and COURAGE could do it and win Gold then others top athletes COULD VERY WELL do it and win Gold or lesser medals!

Nobby wrote:

I would tend to agree with MAYEROFF except not Tokyo but Beppu.

The thing for his future is that, if he can't sprint, he can't win interntainal 10k down. It doesn't matter what potential you might have, if you can't sprint, you'll be out of medal.

Don't think of the marathon as "the last resort" and miss out the opportunity. At least that's what Japanese would think (except for Takaoka...unfortunately).

Nobby, why do you think this? I think that the new Tokyo course is very fast. No more uphill climb from 36-39km.

Vipam, the fact you have to go back to Ngugi and Ivan for examples show that Nobby is essentially correct in how major Games are won/run today. No-one runs away from the field anymore. You don't even see Bekele (who probably could) attempt such a tactic.

Nobby, who is running Beppu, Tokyo and Biwa? I only know of one runner in the Tokyo Marathon ;-)

What do you think about the new course for Tokyo?

The only start list that's up is the Osaka Women's Marathon.

Jason

Okay, Vipam, how much of a surge will Ryan need to break Bekele? Run 3:53 for the fifth mile? The fact Bekele at his best is a sub3:50 miler and Ryan on his best day may just crack 4min not only sets up the issue of his kick, but also what he can run for top end pace in the race. Remember Worlds 03 when Bekele, Geb and Sihine ran 12:57, 12:58 and 13:09 for the last 5000m? That's 62.2s/lap; how can you expect Ryan to stay with such a pace? Or, even if by some Billy Mills miracle he were to hang on, Bekele and crew can still run 26s for the last 200m. The 10000m is good practice but Ryan's Olympic goals should be on the roads. Ryan trying to win a medal at 5000 or 10000m is like Webb going for a medal at 1500m: he doesn't have the wheels for that one, but if he follows some good examples (Meb for Ryan and Mottram for Webb) he can potentially win some hardware.

Ryan's going to be a great one.

Jason:

So are you in Japan and going to watch Osaka? Say hi and good luck to Shibui-chan (she doesn't know me personally but her coach does). I think her training was going well in China and she looked slim.

3 reasons why I thought Beppu would be better; 1) slightly more time to recover from the half, 2) lower key marathon although this year Beppu is a trial for the world as well, 3) and they still have the downhill in the beginning of the course and it might start you off too fast especially if you're the first-timer.

I don't know who's running either Tokyo or Beppu. I know who's NOT running--Takaoka. I heard that his training hasn't been going well and he gave up on Osaka worlds. Unfortunate. I really think he had the potential to become one of great marathon runners... I checked the new Tokyo corse and it looks pleasant. Yes, I think they wanted a fast course. It's also very scenic (as can be in Tokyo!). I thought I read somewhere that Atsushi Sato (Chugoku Electronics) is running Lake Biwa... I could be wrong.

Good luck at Tokyo! We'll be watching!

Vipam:

I really admire your positive thinking. I really do. And, you're right; I shouldn't have put limit on athlete's ability. But at the same time, though, if I have a runner who cannot sprint 52 seconds for 400, I would not put him in 5000 or 10000, regardless of how great his potential or how gutsy he may be, for the most important competition in his life. Arthur Lydiard said to use 200m time as the athlete's basic speed to determine the most suited race distance. He didn't say that for the heck of it. Sure, there have always been a surprise and you can argue with a few exceptions but there have been way too many more examples of runners who should have won but lost in the last sprints because he/she couldn't sprint. If you are NOT a marathon runner and if you can't sprint, sure, you've got to find a way to beat the field. You can surge, you can sprint in the middle of the race (surprise), you can try to make 3000m race out of 5000, though it should be the last 3000, not the first 3000 (yeah, Bob!). Tergat tried so desprately so many times against Geb. It is not that Tergat is "slow" at all; but Geb is basically "quicker" in the last 200m (or 50m). And the problem today (not so much 20 years ago but getting very close) is that so many "fast" guys are training a lot and moving up the distance. They have so much better endurance base (thanks to Marathon Conditioning Training, I would say).

First of all re-read my post. Did I mention Ryan's name. I was speaking to Nobby showing him that runners with less than blazing kicks while extremely difficult is still possible to win Gold or lesser medals. Do I think Ryan can win Gold against a healthy Kenenisa, No. I do feel that if he can run a track 10000m on the same level of his 1/2 marathon he is a medal threat.

Anyone with less than 3:53 miler speed would have to take note of John Ngugi and Paula Ivan's COURAGE and develop a plan to shed as many of the kickers before the last mile. Yes it would be highly unlikely against the Eth, Ken, Bah, & Qat but still possible. Everyone thought

John Ngugi

Paula Ivan

Joan Samuelson

would fade (they all won Olympic Gold) even the announcers but they caught the field off guard with crazy spilts and courage (someone could do it/should try it for LESSER MEDALS for sure)!

Give the Paula Ivan thing a rest, as her "success" was probably driven by PEDs as much as by what you call courage.

image:

http://www.geocities.com/webalby1500fotos01/Paula_Ivan.jpg

Ngugi, despite being banned for refusing for taking a drug test, is less suspect.

'88 was a bad year.

Renato Canova

Have you seen the video of Ryan Hall's 59:43 1/2 marathon? What are you thoughts on how this MAY relate to a flat marathon performance such as London? In your opinion does such a performance indicate sub 27 minute potential for Ryan Hall this year in a track 10000m?

I know its all speculation but your opinion being a coach of several top world class elite athletes would be appreciated on the subject!

A half marathon has Zero importance on a predictor for the marathon.

bad connection wrote:

My only concern is that Hall coming from a 1,500m/5,000m background uses carbohydrates at too high of a rate at this point in his career and doesn't have as great of an aerobic fat power as needed. Of course with training this can be fixed, but it's only been a year or so since he was a middle distance runner.

That's what I suspect happened to Ritz and he was a 5/10k guy, not a 15/5k guy.

Remember the half marathon is based on Lactate threshold and things like that. The marathon is based on FUEL. Totally different ball game.

Aerobic fat power? Really? Do you actually know how much fat an elite Marathon runner metabolises in a Marathon?

The amount is very small. It's a very fine line between running too fast too early in the race and running at optimum pace. Anyone can hit the wall, regardless of ability or training.

andre dawson wrote:

do you think sticking with the 1500m so long actually helped him or would he have benifitted even more by moving up earlier?

Didn't he run XC at Standford too? Did not the coaches see his upside in the longer events?

Jason and Nobby are exactly right. With his current fitness, if indeed a spring marathon is in the plans - best to strike while the iron is hot. The conditions are usually much better for a spring or winter marathon in japan, than here in the US, when you get one, maybe two good opportunities. With a sub 60 on a course, probably very close in topography to a japanese course - he can split 103 and if he can manage his fuel wisely come back in 105. He is much more efffecient than D. Morris who ran 209.

Great race for him, however he ran very well in the fall at the 20k distance, so it some respects not surprising.

This is correct; there is very little fat metabolized due to the high intensity at which a well trained runner runs a marathon.

However, there is a large difference between the half marathon and marathon due to the number of calories burned. For runners running the half in about an hour and the full in a little over two hours they can make it through the half without any caloric intake during the race but the additional length of the full depletes glycogen stores requiring extra calories to be consumed during the race.