RITZ RUNNING EDINBURGH

KB will not lose. I cannot remember the last time he lost a race in xc. I think it was probably his short course silver when he was still just 17, many moons ago. He had minimal training after the death of his fiance and still completed the world xc double with ease. Kipchoge is fit but he is not the runner KB is in xc.

Road performances do not equal xc performances.

I think Kipchoge probably has better speed than Bekele- he did outkick Mottram at 5k, and Mottram's ran 3:48.98 for the 1 mile and 4:50 for 2k. The course will be muddy so it won't probably won't go out too fast, but I'm sure it will still be a tough pace. Tadesse ran some great road races and road times, and now Kipchoge has - it could and should be a really good race. I hope Ritzenhein surprises and shocks everyone.

ipot wrote:

after Kipchoge's 10k the other day...im considering him the man to beat. may sound little crazy but so is runnin sub27 on the roads

you dont think bek could have ran 2655...a guy that has run 2617 on the track negative slitting the second 5k solo! Also kip won by 1 second it that race...does that mean both of them would have won against bek?

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I am not sure what makes you so adamant that Ritz is not among the top 10 XC runners; I did not say he was among the top 3 or 5. I don't think meet promoters of the major events would send you an invite and offer appearances fees if they thought the best you would finish is 30th of 40th. Ritz’s 20th place finish at World Cross was an aberration. The US is the 3rd or 4th best XC team in the world and as you suggest our best runner is not among the top 10; how is that. The fact is, we can never get our best guys to commit to World Cross, if we could ever put together a team from guys like Culpepper, Bore, Tegenkamp, Goucher, Ritz, Abdi, Fam, Hall, Cabada, Meb, Browne, Webb and 1 or 2 of our top NCAA guys for a World Cross team, I would only place Kenya and Ethiopia ahead of us…I know that statement is going to make you real mad.

Btw - I am no more a Ritz fan than I am of US distance running in general and I don't know who Flagpole Willy is, but if he astutely follows the sport and is a realist, I don’t mind the association.

TrackCoach,

Sir Lance alot thinks that I believe Dathan Ritzenhein walks on water (which I don't think). I've made some predictions for him that so far haven't come true. He's been a little slower so far in races than I've said he would be, but I believe as you do that he's clearly the best the US has when CC is concerned (Tegenkamp is right there, but I'd put Ritz a step ahead). I believe Ritz has it in him to run faster than the current AR in the 5,000 and 10,000 -- whether or not those times will be bested by someone else first is another matter. I also believe he has a stellar marathon or two or more in him. Like you, I'm a fan of stellar distance running and to me, Ritz has shown he among the most talented in the US is not THE most talented. I think when he's on, a place of less than 10th in World Cross would be disappointing.

TrackCoach wrote:

I am not sure what makes you so adamant that Ritz is not among the top 10 XC runners; .... Ritz’s 20th place finish at World Cross was an aberration. .

I am only adamant that your statement that "Ritz.....when... healthy, is easily one of the top 10 XC runners in the world" has simply not been proven out by the facts. You can talk all you want of potential, but he has yet to prove that he is EASILY one of the top 10 x-c runners in the world.

And you are right that Rit'z "20th(actually 24th) place was an aberration." Right in that it was the only time in that last several years that he peaked right for world cross. He was only a frosh when he got that 24th, so that was a great race (but again, there were 2 races. If only one were held, he almost certainly would have been outside the top 30). The other years since then?

Two years ago he got 64th.

Last year he struggled to make the US team and didn't even run worlds.

So....based on those performances, how on earth do you state that he is "easily one of the top 10 x-c runners in the world" ?? Because he ran a few decent other races (where the field was not that deep) and won the US title once? That hardly makes him a bona fide "top 10 in the world".

Those are just the facts my friend. And that is all I am adamant about.

Maybe he will get top ten this year, but until then.....

.

TrackCoach wrote:

Ritz was injured on and off from 2002 to 2005, but when he is healthy, he is easily one of the top 10 XC runners in the world.

Ritz is an exciting and talented runner, but there are probably ten guys in the town of Eldoret who are better.

Is Ritz our best XC and distance runner?? I think not. Hall decimated him last year. Goucher placed 6th at worlds. In addtion, at any distance, I'd take Abdi. But if Ritz has another healthy year to train, then I think he will become the best.

ttc wrote:

Is Ritz our best XC and distance runner?? I think not. Hall decimated him last year. Goucher placed 6th at worlds. In addtion, at any distance, I'd take Abdi. But if Ritz has another healthy year to train, then I think he will become the best.

Ritz was sick last year...and it wasn't a small thing. You know darn well ritz could have licked those guys he he lost too with the exception of hall who no way can beat a healthy ritz by as much as he did. I think hall is a huge talent who once he learns his body well enough in training will be great...maybe better then ritz...but last year Ritz was down for the count in that race.

I doubt Ritz will make an impact at this year's race since he hasn't that much time after NYC. Two months? It's not that much, while the other guys have had more training time under their belt. He'll be up there but won't be a huge factor.

I also think people are over-estimating Kipchoge's sub27. You have to remember that the first 7-8k of that race is nicely downhill and even though it goes uphill at the end for a bit it is definitely net downhill.

It's rare for Bekele to lose at cross (if at all), while Kipchoge has been very inconsistent the last few years. I give the nod to Bekele who wins in the last 400m.

Also while it is true that Ritz "struggled to make the US team in 2006" you can also look at it from another angle - "despite a serious thyroid problem, he nevertheless was able to make the team"

cash for books wrote:

Also while it is true that Ritz "struggled to make the US team in 2006" you can also look at it from another angle - "despite a serious thyroid problem, he nevertheless was able to make the team"

Rupp has the thyroid problem, not Ritz. Ritz had "walking pneumonia." He tried to make it "running pneumonia", but it didn't work out for him.

I agree with you Sir Lance-alot. Ritz is NOT top 10 in the world. Mottram isn't even top 10 for god's sake.

In fact, anyone who has any sense knows that Ritz probably couldn't crack top 20 in Kenya alone!

All you USA-WORLD XC rooters are deluding yourselves, and setting yourselves up for a load of disappointment and embarrassment. This is why:

1. There is ONE RACE this year. I repeat. ONE RACE.

2. 12KM!! Goucher may have been able to pull off 6th in the 4k, but the 12k is a completely different story, playing to the africans' strength.

3. It's in Kenya, home turf for most of the best xc guys in the world.

4. Last year in the long 12k race, africans took the top 16 places, not to mention 40 of the top 50, despite all the cheerleading and predicting by you poor misled lestrunners.

24th was a fine performance for a 19 yr. old.

It is also the highest Ritzenhein has placed at World Cross as a Senior athlete. Certainly he is capable of more but that has yet to occur. Really, there aren't enough relevant data points to concoct a pattern but here are DR's finishes at World Cross:

3rd - Jr. race

24th

62nd - blisters, went out too fast on a hot day (his admission)

If anything, 24th is an average performance, not an aberration at all.

I'm not mad but I urge you to consider Qatar, Uganda, Tanzania, Eritrea, Spain, and Morocco, amongst others.

Okay, let's all get a grip on ourselves. Here are the top 10 men from the long race in the last two years, removing doubles:

Kenenisa Bekele

Sileshine Sihine

Zersenay Tadesse

Mathathi Martin Irungu

Eliud Kipchoge

Boniface Kiprop

Saif Saaeed Shaheen

Mike Kigen

Hosea Mwok Macharinyang

Yonas Kifle

Ali Abdallah

Mesfen Tesfayohannes

Simon Koros Arusei

Abebe Dinkessa

Dejene Birhanu

John Korir

Charles Kamathi

Notables from the short course:

Isaac Songok

Benjamin Limo

Craig Mottram

Adam Goucher

Augustine Choge

Edwin Soi

You'd be hard-pressed to tell me that Ritzenhein, though a great runner, is better than any of these 23, never mind "easily" one of the best ten over cross country. Get a grip homers.

Also, let's not forget some of the best juniors from last year:

Tariku Bekele

Joseph Ebuya (7:36/12:58)

Ibrahim Jeilan Gashu

Never mind the top juniors Kenya and Ethiopia produce who aren't as well-known. I can't believe the Americoentrism on this thread.

When I look at IAAF 2006 list for the 5000/10000/Half Marathon/Marathon/3000SC the only countries I see with more names on those lists are Kenya and Ethiopia...why would I think Qatar, Uganda, Tanzania, Eritrea, Spain and Morocco are better at XC? If the US ever sends its best athletes we are clearly the 3rd best team. I admit Kenya and Ethiopia could possibly send their B and beat us, but besides Kenya and Ethiopia, no other country can match our depth.

You seem to forget that Daniel Lincoln ran an 8:08 Steeplechase last year, Lagat ran a 12:59 5K, Tegenkamp ran a 13:04 5K, Abdi ran a 27:22 10K Webb, Ritz and Famiglietti ran a 27:30x 10K, Hall ran a 57:54 20K and Abdi ran a 1:01 half marathon. Those performances are competitive in any major competition. I am not under any illusions that we have an individual who is likely to make the podium at World Cross or that we have a shot at beating Kenya or Ethiopia, but we are not chop liver as some are suggesting.

The problem is, the US never sends its best athletes to World Cross, the one year we came close to sending our best team was 2002 or 2003 and I think we got 3rd that year.

And, to those of you who think Ritz is not capable of a top 10 finish at World Cross, you need to read comments made by athletes from other countries; his name gets mentioned quite a bit.

Hey did you go to High School in Westchester, NY?

And, to those of you who think Ritz is not capable of a top 10 finish at World Cross, you need to read comments made by athletes from other countries; his name gets mentioned quite a bit.

Uh huh, so, which of these guys would he beat?

Shaheen

Sihine

Tadesse

T. Bekele

Kipchoge

Birhanu

Dinkessa

Mathathi

Kogo

Macharinyang

Kiprop

Soi

etc.

Which of the Africans are mentioning him? Which among them thinks he's one of the ten best in the world?

Sorry mate, not from NY.

This may be the last I say on the subject, as I don't feel I am getting through to you. I am not discounting the chances of the US to get together a crack team (as unlikely as that may be) and run very well at World XC. Perhaps I haven't been articulating myself well enough but I think you are getting carried away with one year's worth of track times and are not giving the World Cross Country meet enough credit. It's a long, strength-oriented race, so much depends on the day and especially the conditions (crap - the US/European/Benita Johnson people sneak in there. Hot - Mottram is 2:05 back). An American team on the podium in Mombasa/Edinburgh/WXC 2009, etc. is not, as George Tenet would say, a "slam dunk."

Qatar is two Kenyan B-teamers plus Shaheen, Kwalia, and two sub 26:40 guys.

I watched Lincoln run 8:08 on WCSN. I also watched him get 28th in the short race (!) three months earlier. The 4K is right in the wheelhouse for a steepler, the 12K is a bit of a stretch.

Lagat's major cross country race was in 1998 when he was destroyed by Goucher, Abdi, Julius Mwangi, Matt Downin, and nipped by Sean Kaley and Brad Hauser. He may show up in Boulder and run great (I'll bet he's amazing at altitude) but 12:59, even with a last lap in 51 seconds, does not make him a proven commodity over hill and dale.

Again, you mention Tegenkamp. The guy could potentially be great but seeing as he has a lot of the same support system as Kennedy, I doubt he will make cross country a priority.

No doubt Ritzenhein has the capability to be in the top ten at World Cross. No one in their right mind will deny that. Having a chance and "easily" being one of the top ten cross country runners in the world are two very different things, however.