I really dont think he will show up unfit. Honestly, his wife just had another kid and he probably opted to stay home with them, train, and get in some quality time rather than fly around the world doing exhibition races.
Tergat has no reason to race except to win and stroke his ego. He already has the world record and plenty of money. He wouldnt show up if he didn't think he could win, he would stay in Kenya with his family and save his legs for a spring marathon.
How good does he have to be in this field? I say 2:09:30. Which would be about 2:07:30 in Chicago or about 5th.
New York is the spin capital when it comes to sports. The Yankees were a lock this year. 2 years ago they were bragging about what a great hire Isiah Thomas was. A year ago they were bragging about how wonderful the Brown hire was going to be for the Knicks. The marathon is no different. A whole lot of fluff and very little substance.
They got Lance and that is a bigger draw then any runner. Look at the cover of RW.
Who is "they"? James Dolan was the only person who thought Isiah could produce a winner. Stephon Marbury doesn't count.
Yankees were the Vegas favorite as well, but lost to a better pitching team and a group of guys who are truly a "TEAM". There's just more of us and the national media's here. Look at the Yankees road attendance. They are a draw.
What could the ING NYC Marathon do this year that's any different? I think the NYRR led by MaryW are doing a fabulous job. Something I would not have said about this organization five years ago.
If it's consolation to you, the Knicks will suck again this year. Isiah is a horrendous executive.
Gary Scott wrote:
Yankees were the Vegas favorite as well, .
Vegas works this way. When money (public opinion) is put on one team the odds change to attempt to equal the money out. The favorite has nothing to do with the better team. It has everything to do with who people think are the better team. This is often swayed by the media.
To relate this to the marathon. Those that feel the New York Marathon is in the same league as Boston or London or Chicago are being influenced by the media. They already will start the spin by telling us how much more difficult the course is and blah blah blah blah blah... Mary W is the queen of spin.
Those of us who have run these Marathons will most likely have a different opinion than the other runners and most Definately a different Opinion than the Media and the spectators.
You won't learn to drive sitting in the passenger seat.
Meb is not less then 100%. You can assume that, but that may not be the case. From what I read he pulled out of the half 'thon because of hammy problems, not a pull or a tear. It was probably a precaution to prevent injury. I predict a pr and a win from MEB
NYC has the embarassment of having Lance Armstrong running. I suppose he entered through a public process and cannot be rejected due to his past drug use. What terrible publicity for our sport which has suffered enough. It's been a bad year with all the doping violations and now this.
Rickey Boobey wrote:
Meb is not less then 100%. You can assume that, but that may not be the case. From what I read he pulled out of the half 'thon because of hammy problems, not a pull or a tear.
"hammy problems" or any other PROBLEM means that he is not 100%. He may still be able to win New York, but if he dropped from a half it was because he is NOT 100%.
I highly doubt he entered through the public process. He's as guilty as drug use as KK, Haile G., and any other person fortunate enough to enjoy international success.
Lance Armstrong immediately becomes the most famous US Marathoner since Bill Rodgers, Frank Shorter, Rosie Ruiz, PDiddy, and the guy in the office who runs every year. That is all the people in this country know.
Shouldn't all of you who are hating on Lance Armstrong, ING NYCM, and New York in general actually be RELIEVED that he will run ING NYCM instead of tainting the races you prefer?
And at the bottom of it all, remember why Arnstrong is running -- for the LiveStrong Foundation -- not for self glory and not because NYRR is paying him. Armstrong, Nike, and the foundation were the ones who would have shopped for races and decided on ING NYCM.
Joe,
You have turned into such an apologist that it doesn't allow you to see the light. Nike is using NYRR big time. Is Nike the shoe sponsor of the ING New York City Marathon? Hell No. So what does Nike do to sabotage the shit out of an Asics event. They first present their new ipod technology in New York and announce that they will be introducing it at the New York City Marathon. Mary W even shows up for photo ops. This is a back door way of making sure that Nike keeps their name up front at someone elses event and Mary cooperates. A huge slap in the face to Asics who is donating millions. Step 2. Bring in Lance Armstrong and again Mary follows and fosters the publicity for Nike. RW even puts Lance on the cover and asks the question "what will Lance run?". Meanwhile Deena has been quiet in all of this. She would be the Asics queen and american record holder that is running in the event as well.
I don't blame Nike. They have gotten far more splash than Asics in an event that Asics is spending millions and running their best athlete. I do blame Mary (the media whore) for not protecting her sponsors.
Asics is not donating. Otherwise, solid post, assuming you know the terms of Asics sponsorship agreement.
You are correct. Donating is a lousy choice of words.
Asics is SPONSORING with zero loyalty from Mary Wittenberg.
That's for damn sure. He should just bow out and avoid the scandal he's caused, just like he did in cycling, as he was forced to retire in disgrace. He's made the name 'Armstrong' a verb worldwide, synonymous for being a doper and a cheat. To many that means he belongs in New York, I agree.
The last time an American male won NY was in '82 (Al Salazar) & last American woman was in '77 (Miki Gorman).
This trend is unlikely to change any time soon unless organizers quit inviting foreign runners.
1976 was the first five boroughs race.
Slow Joe wrote:
You are correct. Donating is a lousy choice of words.
Asics is SPONSORING with zero loyalty from Mary Wittenberg.
You were correct the first time. If the CEO of the NYRR is doing pr work with Nike then Asics money is a donation. That is unethical as hell. However, ethics have not been a part of the current regime in New York.
on the flipside, often times people who run exceedinlgy fast half-mara's are basiaclly overtrained. when they get to the marathon they've peaked too early. it cuts both ways bub.
plus Meb didn't need to be 100% to win the '04 oly trials.