I don't think he was running "just to win" last year when he went 12:59. He said himself it was a very tough race for him. I got the impression that he was really feeling the pain the last 2 kilometers but could still come home in 53 because he's a 3:26 runner. If he trains a little more for it he can run 12:50 or slightly faster, but a 13:00-13:05 wouldn't surprise me either. Overall I'm hoping he doesn't run 12:50 because I'm one of those guys who doesn't like the idea of Africans owning every country's records.