Not location dependent, LR board readers dependent. The former classes of LR posters are going to be biased fast because LR posters, at least the older ones, are somewhat likely to be the fastest ones of their classes. I'm class of '87, and highly likely to be fastest of the 390ish people in my class by at least a minute considering I was already fastest back then and was competitive for overall wins in local races into my later 40s. Haven't raced in a decade, but I'm sure I can hit sub-6. Maybe sub-5 if given a few months to train for it.
If you haven’t raced in a decade and you are approaching 60, you will not be breaking 5 minutes again. That I can tell you.
Anything slower than walking pace (20 minutes/mile?) would be considered to be DNF.
Most people in their 40s could definitely finish, but not in their current state. They would have to train a bit for a month or two.
I think you are way off. Here is my thinking for thinking for men. Will draft in two responses
Class of 2026: These are 18 year olds. Fastest time will depend on a specific class. My HS class size is ~100 men. Most play sports and a mile isn't that far. I'd guess the fastest time is typically 4:20-4:40. Median time 6:45. 1% DNF
Class of 2016: These are 28 year olds, mostly drinking too much but most are still somewhat active. Likely no track runners so fastest time 5:15. Median 7:30. 2% DNF
Class of 2006. Not that dissimilar to class of 2016. You may even have a few more who are getting back into running. Fastest time 5:00. Median 7:45. 5% DNF.
Class of 1996. These are 48 year olds so father time is starting to bite just a little. Definitely more pot bellies and less activity. Still, a few in decent shape. Fastest time 5:45. Median 8:30. 8% DNF.
Class of 2026 is not running a 6:45 median time. The 50th percentile for the President's Fitness Challenge was 7:04 for 17 year old boys, and that was in the 1980s when the obesity rate was much lower.
Class of 2016 is reasonable.
Highly doubt that the winning time for the class of 2006 would be 5:00. That's equivalent to a 17 minute 5K, and a time of 19:00 is sometimes good enough to get 2nd place in the M 35-39 division for the local turkey trot.
There's no effing way that the median time for the class of 1996 would be 8:30. Have you ever seen chubby middle-aged dudes trying to catch a bus? They aren't going much faster than 8:30 pace, and the distance is much less than 200m, let alone a mile.
There's no effing way that the median time for the class of 1996 would be 8:30. Have you ever seen chubby middle-aged dudes trying to catch a bus? They aren't going much faster than 8:30 pace, and the distance is much less than 200m, let alone a mile.
I wog 4.5 miles twice a week, am pretty heavy (5'9" around 190), and "ran(?)" a 7:45 mile in my neighborhood a few weeks ago just to see if I could break 8. Some of us fatties are quicker than you think! haha
On second thought, maybe this is too location-dependent. I'm sticking with those winning times for a small-medium school in the Deep South, but if you went to a large school in somewhere like Colorado, the winning times would definitely be much faster.
Not location dependent, LR board readers dependent. The former classes of LR posters are going to be biased fast because LR posters, at least the older ones, are somewhat likely to be the fastest ones of their classes. I'm class of '87, and highly likely to be fastest of the 390ish people in my class by at least a minute considering I was already fastest back then and was competitive for overall wins in local races into my later 40s. Haven't raced in a decade, but I'm sure I can hit sub-6. Maybe sub-5 if given a few months to train for it.
Class of '86 and our cross country team was state champion in a large state. But I'm the only one on the team still running today and can run around 5:10, though I was never a miler. I could break 5:00 until a few years ago but have been on the the injury train the last few years. Maybe I can get back to sub-5:00 again, but I'm doubtful.
With that said, I'm pretty confident that we have some other guys in my class who could still break 6:00. Some of the ex-athletes, especially the soccer players, who have stayed pretty fit.
More generally, I'd put the average "fastest time" for a decent-size, athletic school from class of 1986 closer to 6:00 than 7:00.
80s. Small school with some talented runners Winning time? 4:50 to 5:30? I know I could go sub six, but I haven’t run anything shorter than a 5K in 35 years, and I’m out of shape. Median time for males? A around 9? DNF percent? Probably no more than 20% overall, but if you’re referring to the guys who need to walk because they went out way too fast because they couldn’t gauge what they could run, then at least 35%
80s. Small school with some talented runners Winning time? 4:50 to 5:30? I know I could go sub six, but I haven’t run anything shorter than a 5K in 35 years, and I’m out of shape. Median time for males? A around 9? DNF percent? Probably no more than 20% overall, but if you’re referring to the guys who need to walk because they went out way too fast because they couldn’t gauge what they could run, then at least 35%
If you graduated in the 80s, neither you nor your classmates will be running a 4:50 mile this week even if a million dollars was on the line. Heck, before 2020, no 60+ year old in the entire world had ever run a sub 4:51 mile:
Does that look right? Assume that they're given an incentive (i.e., $100 for every minute they're under 10:00) but are only given a week's notice, which rules out any significant training unless they're already fit.
Class of 2004
Correct that I’d be 5:30ish, doubt we’d have more than one or two other under 6
Probably 4-5% of class dead now so DNS for them
I’d guess 30% is fair for not being able to do it faster than a 16 minute walk
Size of graduating class would make a difference in chances for outliers
Does that look right? Assume that they're given an incentive (i.e., $100 for every minute they're under 10:00) but are only given a week's notice, which rules out any significant training unless they're already fit.
Class of 08. I'd win in 5:03, but I'm a tryhard outlier. 2nd place would be my friend on 5:40. After that, nobody under 6, including the ones who still run, so your guess isn't too far off.
You may be underestimating the aging process in the U.S.A.
My thought is that in groups from 1986 and before that it is not going to be a very pretty sight. Just look around at the 60+ folks the next time you go to the grocery store. It is sobering.
My graduating class of 1975 was 362 - 167 males. Based on last year's 50th reunion, it looks like about 55-60 of the entire class have passed away. Yikes!
From what I saw then, I would guess 15:00 would be a pretty high bar for most.
Pretty sure there is no one else still training regularly, but a few may be able to slide under 8:00. A couple still make an effort to take care of themselves.
So... I am 69 (male) and hit 6:55 indoors earlier this year (not at all happy with that, btw) and was sub 7:02 in the first mile of a 5k last weekend. Probably could hit about 6:45 if I was pushed. I will find out on July 4th - there is pretty big road mile that is certified, straight, and flat that I have been running each year. A few years ago I ran 6:00.03 but those days are gone.
And to humble me even further a guy in my age group (65-69), Rick Lee, just ran a a 4:57 mile (track) for the U.S. age group record. Age grades to 3:44 if you believe those conversions. Simply amazing.
I'm 03 and I feel 06 is in the same ball park where everyone's mid-life crisis is getting fit and running marathons or doing Hyrox. I guess out of all the things that could happen thats pretty positive. So the 40% definitely is a stretch. I would say 10-15%
My class still has some very fit baby master runners. I'm 4:45 for the mile and I know 2 other guys that could probably kick my butt if they dropped down since they are sub 2:30 marathoners.
I think you are way off. Here is my thinking for thinking for men. Will draft in two responses
Class of 2026: These are 18 year olds. Fastest time will depend on a specific class. My HS class size is ~100 men. Most play sports and a mile isn't that far. I'd guess the fastest time is typically 4:20-4:40. Median time 6:45. 1% DNF
Class of 2016: These are 28 year olds, mostly drinking too much but most are still somewhat active. Likely no track runners so fastest time 5:15. Median 7:30. 2% DNF
Class of 2006. Not that dissimilar to class of 2016. You may even have a few more who are getting back into running. Fastest time 5:00. Median 7:45. 5% DNF.
Class of 1996. These are 48 year olds so father time is starting to bite just a little. Definitely more pot bellies and less activity. Still, a few in decent shape. Fastest time 5:45. Median 8:30. 8% DNF.
Class of 2026: 50th percentile for 17 year old boys is 7:04 from the Presidential Fitness Challenge.
Class of 2016: 50th percentile for M20-29 is 11:58 for 1.5 miles (7:59/mile pace), so an all-out mile would be around 7:20 Class of 2006: 50th percentile for M30-39 is 12:25 for 1.5 miles (8:16/mile pace), so an all-out mile would be around 7:40 Class of 1996: 50th percentile for M40-49 is 13:11 for 1.5 miles (8:47/mile pace), so an all-out mile would be around 8:00 Class of 1986: 50th percentile for M50-59 is 14:16 for 1.5 miles (9:30/mile pace), so an all-out mile would be around 8:40
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