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1500m Top Performances Adjusted for Super Spikes

nmmichalak · 2026-06-07T16:41:10-04:00

I pulled the top 1500m performances from Wikipedia and put together a table (bottom of the post) applying a range of "super spike adjustments" (1%, 2%, and 3%) to any performance after 2019. The adjustments are based on the math from this paper: Self-perceived middle-distance race pace is faster in advanced footwear technology spikes I sorted the table by the 1% adjusted time (fastest first) to see how the top times would rank differently.Some observations: Ingebrigtsen's 3:26.73 from Monaco drops from #4 all-time to #24, landing right next to Elijah Manangoi and Mo Farah's performances. Cole Hocker's 3:27.65 Olympic win moves down to #30 on this list. With even a 1% shoe advantage assumed, the early 2000s depth looks pretty hard to reach. Obviously, all these athletes are incredible. An adjusted time on a spreadsheet isn't the same thing as actually racing in traditional, lightweight spikes. I know people talk about super shoes a lot on here, but I wanted a clean reference table to look at a plausible range of what today's times might look like without super spikes. This isn't to take anything away from athletes like Ingebrigtsen, Hocker, Kerr, or Nuguse. They have to race with the tech of their era. None of them are going to handicap themselves with plain, lightweight spikes just to make a point. It's just an interesting exercise to look at the potential range of what they might have run on those days without the advanced spikes.# Time 1% Adj 2% Adj 3% Adj Athlete Date ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 3:26.00 3:26.00 3:26.00 3:26.00 Hicham El Guerrouj 14 Jul 1998 2 3:26.12 3:26.12 3:26.12 3:26.12 El Guerrouj #2 24 Aug 2001 3 3:26.34 3:26.34 3:26.34 3:26.34 Bernard Lagat 24 Aug 2001 4 3:26.45 3:26.45 3:26.45 3:26.45 El Guerrouj #3 12 Aug 1998 5 3:26.69 3:26.69 3:26.69 3:26.69 Asbel Kiprop 17 Jul 2015 6 3:26.89 3:26.89 3:26.89 3:26.89 El Guerrouj #4 16 Aug 2002 7 3:26.96 3:26.96 3:26.96 3:26.96 El Guerrouj #5 08 Sep 2002 8 3:27.21 3:27.21 3:27.21 3:27.21 El Guerrouj #6 11 Aug 2000 9 3:27.34 3:27.34 3:27.34 3:27.34 El Guerrouj #7 19 Jul 2002 10 3:27.37 3:27.37 3:27.37 3:27.37 Noureddine Morceli 12 Jul 1995 11 3:27.40 3:27.40 3:27.40 3:27.40 Lagat #2 06 Aug 2004 12 3:27.52 3:27.52 3:27.52 3:27.52 Morceli #2 25 Jul 1995 13 3:27.64 3:27.64 3:27.64 3:27.64 Silas Kiplagat 18 Jul 2014 14 3:27.64 3:27.64 3:27.64 3:27.64 El Guerrouj #8 06 Aug 2004 15 3:27.65 3:27.65 3:27.65 3:27.65 El Guerrouj #9 24 Aug 1999 16 3:27.72 3:27.72 3:27.72 3:27.72 Kiprop #2 19 Jul 2013 17 3:27.91 3:27.91 3:27.91 3:27.91 Lagat #3 19 Jul 2002 18 3:28.12 3:28.12 3:28.12 3:28.12 Noah Ngeny 11 Aug 2000 19 3:28.75 3:28.75 3:28.75 3:28.75 Taoufik Makhloufi 17 Jul 2015 20 3:28.79 3:28.79 3:28.79 3:28.79 Abdalaati Iguider 17 Jul 2015 21 3:28.80 3:28.80 3:28.80 3:28.80 Elijah Manangoi 21 Jul 2017 22 3:28.81 3:28.81 3:28.81 3:28.81 Mo Farah 19 Jul 2013 23 3:28.81 3:28.81 3:28.81 3:28.81 Ronald Kwemoi 18 Jul 2014[b] 24 3:26.73 3:28.82 3:30.95 3:31.24 Jakob Ingebrigtsen 12 Jul 2024[/b] 25 3:28.95 3:28.95 3:28.95 3:28.95 Fermín Cacho 13 Aug 1997 26 3:28.98 3:28.98 3:28.98 3:28.98 Mehdi Baala 05 Sep 2003 27 3:29.02 3:29.02 3:29.02 3:29.02 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen 14 Jun 2006 28 3:27.14 3:29.23 3:31.37 3:31.46 Ingebrigtsen #2 16 Jul 2023 29 3:27.49 3:29.59 3:31.72 3:31.82 Azeddine Habz 20 Jun 2025 [b]30 3:27.65 3:29.75 3:31.89 3:31.99 Cole Hocker 06 Aug 2024[/b] 31 3:27.72 3:29.82 3:31.96 3:32.06 Phanuel Koech 20 Jun 2025 [b]32 3:27.79 3:29.89 3:32.03 3:32.14 Josh Kerr 06 Aug 2024[/b] [b]33 3:27.80 3:29.90 3:32.04 3:32.15 Yared Nuguse 06 Aug 2024[/b] 34 3:27.83 3:29.93 3:32.07 3:32.18 Ingebrigtsen #3 22 Aug 2024 35 3:28.28 3:30.38 3:32.53 3:32.64 Timothy Cheruiyot 09 Jul 2021 36 3:28.36 3:30.46 3:32.61 3:32.72 George Mills 20 Jun 2025 37 3:28.76 3:30.87 3:33.02 3:33.13 Mohamed Katir 09 Jul 2021 38 3:28.80 3:30.91 3:33.06 3:33.17 Brian Komen 12 Jul 2024 39 3:29.03 3:31.14 3:33.30 3:33.41 Festus Lagat 20 Jun 2025

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Jsjshbf

Anonymous Poster

7 hours ago 06/08/2026 6:01pm EDT
re: nmmichalak

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Now do it for the marathon. Would love to see your reasoning that Ryan hall is somehow a faster runner than kipchoge, sawe, or Kejelcha.

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Buhvbj

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6 hours ago 06/08/2026 6:25pm EDT
re: erico123

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erico123 wrote:
So Jakob is maybe worse than when he was 17 and ran 3.31.18 in non superspikes, and is much worse than Farah at 1500m even tho he has been much more dominant at the distance. Kind of seems to make no sense to me
I have a feeling that he got a hold of super spikes before that race. He was totally shocked.

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common knowledge

Anonymous Poster

6 hours ago 06/08/2026 6:51pm EDT
re: Buhvbj

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Buhvbj wrote:
erico123 wrote:
So Jakob is maybe worse than when he was 17 and ran 3.31.18 in non superspikes, and is much worse than Farah at 1500m even tho he has been much more dominant at the distance. Kind of seems to make no sense to me
I have a feeling that he got a hold of super spikes before that race. He was totally shocked.
You can watch the race on YouTube and see Jakob is wearing standard Victories. He started racing in the Dragonfly prototypes in 2019.

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