MN Cross Country Predictions 2022

The thing about Wayzata is that they return 4 of their top 5 from the state meet and also 2 more sub-16 guys who didn’t run in it.
I also don’t think they had their best day at state. In fact, Southwest would have beaten them if Margolis and Sam Scott finished where they were capable of.
It’s clear that Wayzata had a much better race at NXR since everyone from Southwest were on their A-game that day and Wayzata still beat them.

Lakeville North has a strong 1-2 but only got 6th last year. They got solid track times from 3 others. If their 3-4-5 can really step up then they can challenge Wayzata.

Predictions for AA boys qualifying teams:

1-Winona and Albert Lea

2- Mankato East / Worthington

3- Highland Park / St Thomas Academy

4- St Anthony Village / Totino Grace

5- Big Lake / Monticello

6- Orono / Delano

7- Rock Ridge / Hibbing

8- Fergus Falls / Little Falls

Predictions for Class A state qualifications:
1A -
Lewiston-Altura / Pine Island

2A-
Saint James / Mankato-Loyola

3A-
Luverne / Redwood Valley

4A-
Minnehaha Academy / Heritage Christian Academy
Nova Classical Academy always seems to find a 1-5 so watch out for them

5A-
St John’s Preparatory / St Cloud Cathedral

6A-
Staples Motley / Sauk Centre

7A-
Greenway / Moose Lake
Watch out for Ely

8A-
Perham / Park Rapids

Looks like Hopkins’s top runner Tony Provenzano is moving to Indiana. So this will likely keep Hopkins from Making State.
They were 5-deep last year now they and lose him and Gausmann. So they got a strong top 3, and they need a 4/5.

Southwest will make state again after a second place finish last year and returning 4 guys, and also 2 really good incoming sophomores.

The 10th spot in AAA will go to Bryce Stachewicz who ran a 4:13 in the 1600.

I think McArthur will get top 5 actually. He was the fastest 8th grader in 2018. This is his senior year so look for him to close out his high school career on a high note. Hage did really well at Heartland but his track times weren’t as good as Elliott’s. Maybe he’s just better at XC.

And as I said before, we can take out Provenzano and move Stachewicz into the top 10.

I'll chime in so you don't look crazy talking to yourself. I went to high school and ran XC with Drevlow's dad and uncle...hope she has a good season!

Alumni meet results:
Minnetonka:
https://cdn1.sportngin.com/attachments/document/fdc4-2764471/2022_Alumni_Run.pdf#_ga=2.267515338.551967964.1660939050-2145496869.1660939050

Rosemount also had theirs today

Perham, Wayzata, Eden Prairie, and Edina alumni meets will be on the 20th.

I was at the Wayzata meet this morning. Abbey Nechanicky looked fantastic!

http://www.wayzata-xc.com/2022%20XC/08_20%20-%20Alumni%20Meet.pdf

Looks like Wayzata is missing 2 of the guys that broke 16 last year.

Lakeville North’s 5th runner had a faster time than the winner of this alumni meet.

don’t know how different these 2 courses are.

runsignup.com

Lakeville North 2m. Time Trial

The Lakeville North 2m. Time Trial is on Tuesday August 16, 2022. It includes the following events: Boy's 2 Mile and Girl's 2 Mile.

Open link

Minnetonka's race was 2.3 miles, LN's was 2.

I attended Northfield's alumni race today, it was a great time over a very tough course. Haven't seen any results yet.

I was comparing LN’s time trial to Wayzata’s. Both were 3200 meters.
The winner of Wayzata alumni meet (who is an alum) ran a 10:22. First Wayzata high schooler ran a 10:26.
Lakeville North’s 5th guy ran a 10:12.
It says on one place that LN’s course was 3200 meters but here it says that LN’s course was 2 miles. But 2 miles is longer than 3200 meters.

Eden Prairie alumni meet. They were missing one of their state qualifiers. Interestingly enough, these times looked better than Wayzata’s.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1WHX__s1uNL70VK5rPWSVBfgFtPneWrkcAosPO7A79ko/htmlview#

Perham boys top 7:
1. Soph
2. Senior
3. Junior
4. Soph
5. Soph
6. Freshman
7. Freshman
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10meb7W6f253qRNOqILou05GSH7tlgRA0TjauHgiBGMo/htmlview

Mounds View results:
https://www.moundsviewxc.com/uploads/9/7/5/7/97573534/8.20.2022_alumni_race.pdf
Looking really good. Lelinga is a senior not a junior. He ran a 1:54 last spring.
JC Otto was missing. He was their 5th at the state meet last year.
Next year they will be really good again even when they lose McArthur and a couple of other seniors. Mounds View is a great program and well-coached.

Highland Park time trial results (1.5 mile).
Boys top 5-
7:03
7:07
7:12
7:38
7:54
First 4 are seniors. #4 guy is capable of keeping up with their #3 based on past XC results.
They had a 4:42 1600 runner missing from this race.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1sle6VXatDQk4JSTWpBNWCzfMoDjNfy03vRR4k1uyIvM/htmlview#gid=0
Girls-
7:41 - 11
8:26 - 10
8:37 - 10
8:44 - 10
8:50 - 9
8:53 - 10
8:56 - 10
6 of them are coming back for 2024
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1gZjfupt14jR_LeVSuIcfsCLii2tevLK8OqP5Mk4_MGs/htmlview#gid=0

Minnetonka is putting themselves into a position to maybe win state / go to NXN in 2024.
Notice how there is only one junior in this group.
Minnetonka’s Nonseniors times at the 2.3 mile time trial:
12:14 - 11
12:21 - 10
12:24 - 10
12:24 - 10
12:40 - 9
12:41 - 10
12:58 - 10
13:41 - 10

milesplit.com

The Preseason MileSplit50 Top 25 Boys Team Rankings

Cory Mull

We return for the preseason MileSplit50 top 25 boys team rankings.

Open link

They have Wayzata at 24th. The Alumni meet results from them did not seem very impressive for a team like this. But again, their top guy was off, and two sub-16 guys did not run.

I can see Lakeville North winning both state and NXR based on their time trials.
But next year, Wayzata might be top 5-10 in the nation if all goes well. They are looking to be very young this year.

A rankings:
https://mn.milesplit.com/articles/318704/2022-pre-season-mn-coaches-class-association-a-xc-rankings
Surprised not to see Minnehaha boys in here.
https://mn.milesplit.com/articles/318597/2022-pre-season-mn-coaches-class-aaa-girls-xc-rankings
I can actually see Minnetonka and PL beating Edina this year. Especially at sections.
With Maya Mor back and healthy, I think Minnetonka will go to NXN along with Wayzata.

Northwoods Invite-
Grades of Edina varsity guys-
3 seniors
2 juniors
4 sophomores
1 freshman

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1tWHzESAl5d8CLOlkiSpdtg07OSTf4417WoFpr5WUt2Q/htmlview#gid=0

http://www.wayzata-xc.com/2022%20XC/Boys%20CC%20State%20Rankings%20-%20Pre%20Season.pdf

looks good overall. Hopkins’s Provenzano transferred to Carmel IN so he’s out of the picture and Hopkins should be ranked lower. Edina returns only 1 top 7 guy so they should not be ranked this year.

EP is underrated. Their top 3 (Bakken, Ross, and Holje) ran great at the TT, and they were missing Doolittle (state qualifier) and Derouin (a 10:14 guy). This top 5 is very good.

Wayzata’s time trial times were not as fast as expected. Even with 2 sub-16 guys missing. Not sure what’s up there.

Lakeville North seems to have really good 1-5 based on time trials. Wouldn’t be surprised if they win state and NXR.

Armstrong should be in the top 12 instead of Edina and it’s really surprising that they aren’t even receiving votes. They return a really good top 5 including 2 elite guys. They could challenge for second if their 3-4-5 step up.

I would put Roseville over Stillwater. Stillwater always seems to return really good 3200 times but the next XC season their XC results never seem to be on par with those 3200 times. Stillwater loses a huge senior class. Roseville only lost 2 guys.

Stachewicz ran a 4:13 but he’s not in the top 10. Quite the shock.

Apparently Abby Downin transferred to Edina? But her brother is still at Minnetonka

results.wayzatatiming.com

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Open link

A week from today, September 1st, we’ll get to see the first race between Abbey Nechanicky and Sydney Drevlow this season. They will be pushing each other hard all season, and barring injury to either, their competition will be a lot of fun for Minnesota spectators. This first meeting will be at the St. Olaf Showcase, and girls such as Natasha Sortland and Norah Hushagen will be running near the front too.