• Mouth Breather
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 7:52AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Mouth Breather
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        wondering wrote:

        Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Think again, wonder again, and watch your net worth contract:

        https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/04/02/market-remains-overvalued

        I didn’t say it wasn’t overvalued. I said the current valuation is below the 5-year average. In other words, valuations are relatively low. Why isn’t that good?

        OK, I guess you have a point when you move from 66% overvalued to 65%. Other than that, I don’t see it. But that’s alright. Obviously most people believe things are just fine.

        Why wouldn’t they believe that? Valuations have been high for years, yet we just had 10 years of bull market. Clearly high valuations haven’t had the effect you believed they would.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 12:44PM - in reply to Mouth Breather
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.
    • seattle prattle
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 1:00PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • seattle prattle
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

        I think the point is, with markets trading at higher these valuations, some find reason to avoid market exposure and even not participate at all, precisely becuase they are uncomfortable with the very real possibility that a correction like ones the markets have known in other decades, take as much as 7 or so years to return to former highs. That is understood, and certainly anyone that cannot handle some downturns, corrections, and fluctuations should consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon before participating in the market.
        But I also think the point is being made that choosing to minimize the risk and forego participation has been apparently done to one's own detriment. Simply put, one who sat out the last 10 or 20 years just missed out on one of the greatest bull runs of all time.
        The rear view mirror is clear. What that and our current levels portend for the next few years is anyone's guess.
    • Mouth Breather
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 5:20PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Mouth Breather
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

        That’s the way they work? Overvalued markets lead to long bull markets.

        You’re doing a bad job of trying to convince us that high valuations are not good for investors.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 6:40PM - in reply to Mouth Breather
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Seattle and Mouth Breather,

        I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. Purely an academic view of markets where in the past investors had the same view as yours.

        Similar delusion peak 3/31/2000 through 3/31/2019 S&P 500 Index return 3.5%, with reinvested dividends 5.5%. Far less than what you model.

        Good luck with your view.

        Igy
    • seattle prattle
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 6:56PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • seattle prattle
        registered
      • Igy, during the period you note, i invested in just about the highest valuation stocks around, and did fantastically well. Growth stocks and FANG. Was that ill-advised? Am i missing something?
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 7:06PM - in reply to seattle prattle
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Seattle,

        How was the performance 12/24/2018? Then multiply that three times to the downside. That is your portfolio risk. You decide if that is worth it, not me.

        Igy
    • Mouth Breather
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 7:26PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Mouth Breather
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Seattle and Mouth Breather,

        I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. Purely an academic view of markets where in the past investors had the same view as yours.

        Similar delusion peak 3/31/2000 through 3/31/2019 S&P 500 Index return 3.5%, with reinvested dividends 5.5%. Far less than what you model.

        Good luck with your view.

        Igy

        I offered no “view”. I merely pointed out the FACT that valuations have been high throughout the bull market. YOU are the one who said that is how it works.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 7:39PM - in reply to Mouth Breather
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • As previously documented that is of course false, so play your games with someone less knowledgeable.
    • Mouth Breather
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 7:45PM - in reply to Mouth Breather
      • Mouth Breather
        registered
      • Mouth Breather wrote:

        Valuations have been high for years, yet we just had 10 years of bull market. Clearly high valuations haven’t had the effect you believed they would.

        Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Oh, but that is the way overvalued markets work. Same delusion as in past. Hey, hope it works out for you.

        You said it, not me.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
    • seattle prattle
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 8:46PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • seattle prattle
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Seattle,

        How was the performance 12/24/2018? Then multiply that three times to the downside. That is your portfolio risk. You decide if that is worth it, not me.

        Igy
        LOL. I didn't touch one of my FAANG stocks. On the contrary, I took that opportunity to take my profits on TNA and transition it into TQQQ (triple leverage small cap to 3x technology).
        Come on, Igy. Sometimes a stock pick is right. It does happen. It does.
    • Lemons
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 8:53PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        Seattle and Mouth Breather,

        I am not trying to convince you or anyone else of anything. Purely an academic view of markets where in the past investors had the same view as yours.

        Similar delusion peak 3/31/2000 through 3/31/2019 S&P 500 Index return 3.5%, with reinvested dividends 5.5%. Far less than what you model.

        Good luck with your view.

        Igy

        WTF are you talking about? I haven’t seen either of those posters ‘model’ anything.

        And “purely an academic view”. Don’t make me laugh.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 9:24PM - in reply to Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • In December you were crying, coming again to a neighborhood near you.
    • Lemons
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 9:32PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        In December you were crying, coming again to a neighborhood near you.

        And you were wrong...again.
    • What it is (and nothing more)
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 10:26PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • What it is (and nothing more)
      • In December you were in prime form, make daily jokes about other investor's soiled panties. Now you pick through the litter bin of overhyped IPOs and pound your chest over a one day dip.
        And don't think we don't notice.
        And your promise of the imminent 60% correction are starting to sound more like the ramblings of a one-time investing has-been rather than any academic viewpoint to be taken seriously.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 10:51PM - in reply to What it is (and nothing more)
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • What it is (and nothing more) wrote:

        In December you were in prime form, make daily jokes about other investor's soiled panties. Now you pick through the litter bin of overhyped IPOs and pound your chest over a one day dip.
        And don't think we don't notice.
        And your promise of the imminent 60% correction are starting to sound more like the ramblings of a one-time investing has-been rather than any academic viewpoint to be taken seriously.

        Why don’t you post with your regular handle so your monitor panty moisture can be reconciled ? You know they make something for that.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Heading Down the Dow 4/6/2019 10:53PM - in reply to Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Lemons wrote:

        Ghost of Igloi wrote:

        In December you were crying, coming again to a neighborhood near you.

        And you were wrong...again.

        No, not really, CDs have done better than your stocks the last 15 months. I have been farmore right than you. Ha, ha.....