• Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/9/2016 11:36PM - in reply to TuIIamore Dew
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Tulamore,

        Wouldn't you wish to accomplish as much. Instead you are responding to low life like me. We both can wish what could have been. So sorry.

        Igy
    • coach d
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 12:29AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • coach d
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Why else would someone buy Netflicks with a PE of 300 So someone will be left holding the bag.

        Igy
        Because:

        (a) The stock is up 1679% since the market bottom in March 2009.
        (b) Earnings are projected to be up (average estimate) YOY 292% in 12/2017

        So I think the question is not why somebody would be willing to buy, but why would somebody be willing to sell. I'm not, and I don't think the institutions that own about 90% of the stock are willing to sell either....unless those projections turn out to be totally off the mark, not just early. The company has invested heavily in the last couple of years to become a global company, and next year is the year that investment is supposed to start to translate to the bottom line.

        Who got left holding the bag on my last Microsoft holdings that I sold in April, 2000? Yeah, it was down 70% at one point in 2009 and it wasn't exactly the greatest possible investment, but the people who bought that in 2000 are back to even. If you bought MSFT on 12/31/2008, it has gone up more than the general market (SPX). Note that the CAGR of the SPX, including dividends, from 1/2000 to 12/2015 is 4.02%.

        So, when did the sky fall?
    • Big Dog Investments
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 6:52AM - in reply to coach d
      • Big Dog Investments
      • I bought NFLX in late April. It's up over 8%. The DGTD contrarian indicator strikes again.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 11:15AM - in reply to Big Dog Investments
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • The comment was never about the virtues of Netflicks but on an overvalued stock and bond market. You conveniently left out my comment on the 10 Year Treasury.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 12:31PM - in reply to Big Dog Investments
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • OK then, for the record:

        "A stock or a bond is a claim on a stream of income paid to investors over time. Of course in the present environment many are renters of stocks and bonds. Why else would someone buy Netflicks with a PE of 300 or a 10 Year Treasury at 1.37%. In the end someone must own a stock or bond until it is retired or mature. So someone will be left holding the bag."

        Igy

        Read more: https://www.letsrun.com/forum/f...z4E1osPYRl
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 12:42PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Big,

        coach d's post illustrates my point, the investors in MSFT at the 2000 top are flat to down on the stock. I assume as an investor, not a trader (renter), it will be a similar experience with NFLX or the 10 Year Treasury.

        Best wishes on your trade.

        Igy
    • Narcissist detector
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 1:08PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Narcissist detector
      • Did you seriously just repost a post of yours that was only about a dozen posts old? Damn you love listening to yourself talk.






        (Wait for it....)
    • I'm with igy
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 2:46PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • I'm with igy
      • I know crap about the markets, but still seems like the upside is limited, while potential for a significant drop is very real.
    • Joe Beets
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 3:06PM - in reply to I'm with igy
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • I'm,

        Thanks. Common sense can tell you a lot. But the data is pretty clear. The market has been in roughly the same range since November of 2014. Earnings peaked in this cycle 3rd Quarter 2014 and are down 18.5% since then, yet the market multiple has gone up. If you want to read a balanced view of stock valuation metrics from a historical perspective Google "Ted Berg, OFR 'Quicksilver Markets.'" The OFR is Office of Financial Research set-up by Dodd-Frank in the Department of Treasury.

        Igy
    • Narcissist detector
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 3:09PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Narcissist detector
      • Speaking of patience, I'm impressed that Ignatz waited a full 20' before replying to himself. There may be hope.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 3:11PM - in reply to Joe Beets
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Joe,

        A market drop is not a function of just random events. Significant movements of the market up or down are driven by valuations which are a function of earnings. No different than buying a 10 Year Treasury at 1.37%, you hold to maturity or you speculate you can trade it.

        Igy
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 3:16PM - in reply to Narcissist detector
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • And you wasted very little time posting something not true. If I was to reply under a different handle perhaps I would choose "Jerk Detector."

        Igy
    • Sally V
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 7/10/2016 10:03PM - in reply to
      • Sally V
      • Please don't be like Igy and say it if you don't mean it. It would be nice to have someone stick to their guns for a change.