• Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 8:49AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • From S&P on Q4 2015 Earnings:


        "Takeaway stat: With almost three-quarters of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 69.2% of the issues are beating estimates (slightly higher than the historical rate), as only 40.6% beat As Reported (GAAP) earnings estimates, and 48.2% beat sales estimates -> the current trend is that more companies are citing cost-cuttings, as special items increase (but nowhere near the EBBS, everything but the bad stuff, days of 2000-2), with the continuing story of sales not making their mark."
    • Maserati
      • RE: I forgot to ignore the bigot 2/8/2016 9:03AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Maserati
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Dot Com 2.0

        http://markstcyr.com/

        Awesome!

        Igy
        Thick on hyperbole, thin on content.

        Dow down 270 at the moment in early trading to 15.9k, essentially at "my" lower bound. Nothing like stumbling out of the blocks on Monday morning.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: I forgot to ignore the bigot 2/8/2016 9:08AM - in reply to Maserati
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Maserati,

        Where St. Cyr is on the mark, no pun intended, is how the financial media has said that valuation in the technology space is not anywhere near the Tech Bubble. When you look at the Unicorns and the darlings of the social media and cloud, you see the same foolish investment thesis. Built on fantasy rather than reality. Certainly Friday's market action began the process of rationalization. What many here still don't believe is how much further we have to go.

        Igy
    • Lemons
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 9:09AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        From S&P on Q4 2015 Earnings:


        "Takeaway stat: With almost three-quarters of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 69.2% of the issues are beating estimates (slightly higher than the historical rate), as only 40.6% beat As Reported (GAAP) earnings estimates, and 48.2% beat sales estimates -> the current trend is that more companies are citing cost-cuttings, as special items increase (but nowhere near the EBBS, everything but the bad stuff, days of 2000-2), with the continuing story of sales not making their mark."
        It's nice to hear positive news.
    • Maserati
    • agip
      registered
      • RE: I forgot to ignore the bigot 2/8/2016 10:21AM - in reply to Maserati
      • agip
        registered
      • yow this hurts a lot

        I am selling all my treasuries - they are up 6% in 4 months - that's insane

        I see them as return-free risk at this point
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • Market Sell-Off 2/8/2016 10:41AM - in reply to agip
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • agip,

        No selling of stocks? What happens if you go down another 20%?

        Igy
    • Agip
      registered
      • RE: Market Sell-Off 2/8/2016 10:57AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Agip
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        agip,

        No selling of stocks? What happens if you go down another 20%?

        Igy
        I see that as very very unlikely

        But if it does...I'm working another 20 years and have lived through several bear markets. I'll keep buying and average down.

        And keep in mind I'm only 60% stocks anyway.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Market Sell-Off 2/8/2016 11:07AM - in reply to Agip
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • agip,

        OK, glad you have a reasonable stock allocation. I think it is very very likely that we have at least another 20% to go.

        Igy
    • Lemons
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 11:53AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Lemons,

        Squeeze them lemons:

        "only 40.6% beat As Reported (GAAP) earnings estimates, and 48.2% beat sales estimates"

        Don't forget this part:

        "Takeaway stat: With almost three-quarters of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 69.2% of the issues are beating estimates (slightly higher than the historical rate)"

        Read more: https://www.letsrun.com/forum/f...z3zbGi8uYO
    • agip
      registered
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 11:55AM - in reply to Lemons
      • agip
        registered
      • Lemons wrote:
        Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Lemons,

        Squeeze them lemons:

        "only 40.6% beat As Reported (GAAP) earnings estimates, and 48.2% beat sales estimates"

        Don't forget this part:

        "Takeaway stat: With almost three-quarters of the Q4 2015 earnings reported, 69.2% of the issues are beating estimates (slightly higher than the historical rate)"

        Read more: https://www.letsrun.com/forum/f...z3zbGi8uYO
        putting aside the estimate/actual game, sp500 earnings ex energy are still growing, even with a massive appreciation of the dollar.

        When it becomes clear that the fed is not going to raise rates, the dollar should come back down, goosing profits.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 12:11PM - in reply to Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Lemons,

        If you view stock based compensation and other extraordinary expenses as not a cost of doing business (operating earnings-the 69.2% figure quoted), then OK. It hasn't worked out well for LNKD's valuation, or for other companies using non-GAAP earnings. The figure I quoted, which is much more realistic, is GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles). If you were a follower of market history you would remember that non-GAAP earnings were a feature of the Tech Bubble.

        Good luck though if you feel differently.

        Igy
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 12:18PM - in reply to agip
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • agip,

        See my response to Lemons. I am respectfully not buying your thesis.

        Igy
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: DeFanged 2/8/2016 12:42PM - in reply to Lemons
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Lemons,

        Do you understand the difference between non-GAAP (operating earnings) and GAAP (as reported earnings)?

        I am not being smart, it is a serious and relevant question?

        Igy
    • Jello Biafra
      • RE: I forgot to ignore the bigot 2/8/2016 1:12PM - in reply to K5 detector
      • Jello Biafra
      • K5 detector wrote:
        Hi, K5! Can you point out where POOV said one should not be in the market over the long run? Thanks!
        Did you even read what POOV said?

        R U POOV?

        My god but you're stupid.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: I forgot to ignore the bigot 2/8/2016 1:38PM - in reply to agip
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • agip,

        VIX will not be a good indicator unless you are looking for a trade. Capitulation is months away.

        Igy