Big Ten Cross Country Preview - Wisconsin Men Try For #11 As Hassan Mead Looks To Retain Individual Crown

By LetsRun.com's Employee #1 And Coaching Guru John Kellogg
October 26, 2009

The Big Ten Conference has run by far the fewest meets of any conference in the country. But have no fear, valued reader; we've done our research and feel like we can accurately predict what will happen despite a remarkably small sample of data.

Trends
Wisconsin has won 10 titles in a row on the men's side. They are strong again in 2009. If you're pressed for time, you can stop reading now and probably figure out who's going to win in 2009.

Average Teams
We'll start with the average teams. Many of the average Big Ten teams decided to race Pre-Nationals. Most of the teams proved that they are average. The average teams are (in no particular order, because they're average): Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State. All of these teams were somewhere in the teens to 20s in the team standings in their race.

Additional average teams include Penn State and Michigan. Michigan somehow is receiving a vote in the national poll. This vote, from our perspective, essentially represents talent. Michigan has talent, domestic and foreign, on their squad. Penn State could get a vote. They have talent. But the talent has not done anything this year and there's no evidence that shows they're ready to be in the top 3 in this conference in 2009.

Purdue, last place in 2008, is also an average team. We were going to give them their own category but we'll be nice. They got absolutely dominated by in-state rival Indiana at the Sam Bell Invitational on Pre-Nationals weekend, as Indiana scored a perfect 15 points to provide a little bit of backup data to their big win at Paul Short earlier in the year. Indiana put their top 7 and their assistant coach Tom Chorny in before Purdue's first finisher. That's a perfect score with an asterisk it's so perfect.

Good Teams
We can't say any of these teams are great. The Big Ten cross-country conference right now is strikingly similar to the Big Ten football conference: they've got some good teams but are totally overshadowed by the top-tier schools. The cross-country teams have "big-conference talent" but they have no teams ranked in the top 14 in the country. Wisconsin is #15, Indiana is #18 and Minnesota and Michigan are getting vote(s). Minnesota, led by 2008 individual Big Ten champion Hassan Mead and trusty sidekick Ben Blankenship, is a team that at times this year has been ranked in the top 30 but really isn't that good outside of their very good top 2. There were 20 ranked teams in Terre Haute, spread equally between two races, and Minnesota was one of them and finished 11th despite two low-scoring studs. You do the math. They're not performing like a ranked team.

As of October 26th, the Badgers of Wisconsin have not proven themselves to be a great team. They are merely good. But by the end of the year they could be great because they have great talent on their team. Landon Peacock is a returning NCAA XC All-American and was Big Ten individual runner-up last year as a sophomore. Craig Miller is a track All-American but not terribly consistent on the cross-country course. Maverick Darling, a redshirt freshman, was a high school star and was Wisco's first finisher at their home invitational. Unheralded Elliot Krause was 25th at Big Tens as a freshman.

Wisconsin has the potential to be great because they beat teams like Arkansas at home with Peacock and Miller running terribly. They also beat Arkansas, a definite top-25 team, while running Reed Connor unattached as a true freshman. Connor, the 2008 Gatorade national cross-country runner of the year, finished as Wisco's 3rd man in his first-ever 8k and defeated Arkansas' Solomon Haile after both got out hard early.

Then there is the X factor, Mohammed Ahmed of Canada. A true freshman, Ahmed is a super-talent but got a very late start to the season thanks to August races and Ramadan. Chances are Ahmed is going to redshirt, as Wisconsin will have enough bodies besides him to 1.) win Big Tens, 2.) make Nationals and 3.) finish in the top 10 without very many top-level upperclassmen cross-country runners. With him running well, we think they'll be very, very good, as Ahmed may be the most talented freshman in the country, by far.

Indiana Surprises
The University of Indiana surprised a lot of people by winning the Paul Short Invitational back on October 4 over teams like Iona and NC State running a bunch of freshmen and sophomores. They skipped Pre-Nats and instead dominated the Sam Bell Invitational (results here). Their pack 1-5 is separated by about 30 seconds. 1-7 spread is about 45 seconds.

Indiana is undefeated on the season thanks to young runners. All of their top runners are returning next year and a majority of them are freshmen and sophomores by eligibility. Indiana Hoosier cross-country is the lovable underdog rising up to challenge a potentially flawed conference tyrant.

How Wisconsin Wins
Landon Peacock is race-ready and finishes top 5. Craig Miller, Maverick Darling and Reed Connor run SMART and come on late to finish top 14. Indiana's overachieving pack is more in the 10-25 range. Wisconsin wins by 15-20 points in a relatively narrow margin of victory.

How Indiana Wins
They actually improve their performance yet again. They would be helped by some unfortunate H1N1 infections in Madison or several top Wisconsin runners running foolishly fast early on (unlikely, given their coach Mick Byrne is very smart and experienced). We think an Indiana win is doubtful given the inexperienced team ran so well early on. It's not easy to overachieve all season long. 2nd or 3rd place for Indiana would cap a great year.

Courageous Hosts
Penn State will host the Big Ten championships on their beautiful golf course. Hopefully, the weather will be better than it was two weeks ago when the Penn State National was snowed out in early October with over six inches of thick, wet snow getting dumped on Happy Valley. Penn State's men, unlike teams from other schools, elected not to race at Lock Haven. Most of the top returning Nittany Lion male runners have not raced this year. Guys like Vince McNally and Kyle Dawson are yet to suit up against any legitimate competition. This should make the Nittany Lions' "season opener" a heart-thumping affair for the coaching staff, led by head coach Beth Alford-Sullivan.

Writing about the Nittany Lions reminds us of steeplechaser Bridget Franek and the women's race. Franek represented the US in Berlin this year in her first big international spotlight. She'll be up against a very accomplished runner named Angela Bizzarri of Illinois. Like Franek, Bizzarri also finished in the top 3 at the US track championships back in June and almost booked a spot on the US 5,000m team. She came up just short. Bizzarri, fresh off her win at Pre-Nats, should lock up another Big Ten individual title over Franek. In the team battle, expect a very close race between Bizzarri's Fighting Illini, Franek's Nittany Lions and perennial contenders Minnesota. Illinois (5th) edged Minnesota (6th) in Terre Haute.

LRC Men's Team Predictions
1. Wisconsin 58 (4, 8, 10, 14, 22)
2. Indiana 73 (6, 11, 13, 18, 25)
3. Minnesota
4. Michigan
5. Penn State

LRC Men's Individual Predictions
1. Hassan Mead, Minnesota
2. Jeff Thode, Iowa
3. Ben Blankenship, Minnesota
4. Landon Peacock, Wisconsin
5. Kyle Dawson, Penn State
6. Andrew Bayer, Indiana

Ranked Men's Teams
#15 Wisconsin
#18 Indiana
Minnesota - Receiving Votes
Michigan - Receiving Vote (1)

Ranked Women's Teams
#13 Illinois
#15 Minnesota
#18 Penn State
#22 Michigan
#23 Iowa
#27 Michigan State
Wisconsin was receiving votes earlier in the year