2016 LRC Year-End Rankings, Men’s Marathon: Eliud Kipchoge Caps a Historic Year as World #1 as Breakout Marathon Star Galen Rupp Leads the Americans

A mere eight years ago, the great Haile Gebrselassie averaged slightly more than one second faster per mile than his existing marathon world record to become the first man in history to run under 2:04, with his 2:03:59 coming in the 2008 Berlin Marathon. A mere two Olympiads later, Geb’s time is now only the seventh best on that course; and the average of the top 10 times in Berlin is now 2:03:35, 24 seconds faster – nearly one second faster per mile – than Geb’s second WR!

Who says distance running does not rapidly evolve?

[Berlin’s Top 10: Dennis Kimetto 2:02:57 (2014), Kenenisa Bekele 2:03:03 (2016), Emmanuel Mutai 2:03:13 (2014), Wilson Kipsang 2:03:13 (2016), Wilson Kipsang 2:03:23 (2013), Patrick Makau Musyoki 2:03:38 (2011), Haile Gebrselassie 2:03:59 (2008), Eliud Kipchoge 2:04:00 (2015), Eliud Kipchoge 2:04:05 (2013), Geoffrey Mutai 2:04:15 (2012)]

The same thing has happened with HG’s 2008 Dubai race. His 2:04:53 broke the course record by a full 4:40 and was the second fastest marathon in history, trailing only his WR 2:04:26 run at Berlin four months earlier. Now the average of the top 10 times of the Dubai Marathon is 2:04:40; and even more impressive is that only eight8 years later, HG’s time doesn’t rank in Dubai’s top 10.

[Dubai’s Top Times: 1) Ayele Abshero 2:04:23 (2012), 2) Tesfaye Abera 2:04:24 (2016) 3) Tsegaye Mekonnen Asefa 2:04:32 (2014), 4) Lemi Berhanu Hayle 2:04:33 (2016), 5) Lelisa Desisa 2:04:45 (2013), 6) Tsegaye Mekonnen 2:04:46 (2016), 7) Berhanu Shiferaw Tolcha 2:04:48 (2013),  8) Tadesse Tola 2:04:49 (2013), 9) Dino Sefir 2:04:50 (2012), 10) Endeshaw Negesse 2:04:52 (2013), 11) Haile Gebrselassie 2:04:53 (2008) & Bernard Kiprop Koech 2:04:53 (2013), 13) Markos Geneti 2:04:54 (2012), 14) Jonathan Maiyo 2:04:56 (2012)]

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So, with those preliminary comments about how quickly men’s marathon times continue to progress, for what it’s worth, here’s how I see the top 10 marathoners for 2016:

1. Eliud Kipchoge, Kenya, 32 years old – (London, 1st, 2:03:05/Rio Olympics, 1st, 2:08:44) – As he did last year, Kipchoge again made things easy for choosing #1 in the rankings, didn’t he?  Even with Bekele’s surprise in Berlin, Kipchoge’s 2:03:05 in London remains shockingly impressive. (It’s 4:41.7 per mile, for cryin’ out loud!) It is just as amazing to consider that his tactical 2:08:44 to win the Olympics was the slowest marathon he has ever run…by over three minutes!!! But that last half of 62:49 and 10K split of 29:09 from 30 to 40K, in the heat of Rio, was not slow at all. I have seen the video of the race several times, and over the last 400 meters, I always find myself marveling at Kipchoge’s leg turnover: he looks like he is finishing a 1,500-meter race, not a marathon. He had more – a lot more – left in the tank. There are still a few things missing from Kipchoge’s very impressive marathon resume – a world record, a world championship, a win in New York or Boston – but if he were to retire tomorrow, even though he has only run the marathon for four years, he would still be considered one of the greatest marathoners in history.

2. Kenenisa Bekele, Ethiopia, 34 years old – (London, 3rd, 2:06:36/Berlin, 1st, 2:03:03) – It was impressive enough to see Bekele take third in 2:06 in London on a minimal amount of training, but then his 2:03:03 at Berlin took down Kipchoge’s London race as the fastest of the year (and second fastest ever on a record-eligible course). Please note his Berlin race works out to 4:41.6/mile! That is jaw-dropping. I was surprised by his performance in Berlin – beforehand he acted as though he’d be happy get a PR with a sub-2:05. But he went way beyond that, even breaking Gebrselassie’s Ethiopian national record. Kipchoge was well ahead of Bekele in London, but what will happen next year if they both show up in London in great form? Will they come back to London a few months afterward for the World Championships and slug it out twice in one year? (Editor’s note: With the news that Kipchoge will bypass the 2017 London Marathon in a Nike-sponsored attempt to break 2:00, if Kipchoge and Bekele are to race at all in 2017, it likely won’t come until the World Championships at the earliest)

3. Feyisa Lilesa, Ethiopia, 26 years old – (Tokyo, 1st, 2:06:56/Rio Olympics, 2nd, 2:09:54/Honolulu, 4th, 2:15:56) – He had two strong outings, with a win in Tokyo and a silver medal in the Olympics (even though he was controversially chosen over Bekele to represent Ethiopia.) I ranked him behind Bekele because London/Berlin represented a more competitive combo than Tokyo/Rio/Honolulu; plus, a 2:03:03 is a 2:03:03!! (And Bekele needed it, for right behind him was a 2:03:13.) By comparison, Lilesa’s win in Tokyo was nearly four minutes slower. And his result in Honolulu was lackluster. Lilesa’s PR, by the way, is the 2:04:52 he ran to finish second at Chicago in 2012. His fastest since then was a 2:06:35 that he ran at Dubai last year.

(LRC Addition: It will be interesting to see how Lilesa fares in 2017 as after his protest he won’t be returning to Ethiopia. His first post protest marathon (Honolulu) wasn’t a great one).

4. Galen Rupp, USA, 30 years old – (LA U.S. Olympic Trials, 1st, 2:11:12/Rio Olympics, 3rd, 2:10:05) – Not a bad year for a rookie, huh? First in the U.S. Olympic Trials in his marathon debut and then a bronze-medal performance in the Olympics. In both races, he showed that he can handle the heat. I agree with Tim Hutchings that Rupp’s future is in marathoning, where he seems to be a natural. Ok, Rupp wants one last year on the track in 2017, but after that, he really needs to the make the marathon his primary event. He’s 30 years old and it is time to move up (to an event for which he seems well-suited).

MB: 2016 Men’s Marathon Rankings controversy – Where should Galen Rupp be ranked?

Editor’s note: It looks like Rupp and his coach Alberto Salazar agree with David. One week after David sent us these rankings on December 13, it came out that Rupp will be running the Boston Marathon in April. Then on December 28, Salazar told The Oregonian‘s Ken Goe that he believes the marathon is Rupp’s best event and that Rupp will concentrate on marathon training from 2017 onward.

5. Ghirmay Ghebreslassie, Eritrea, 21 years old – (London, 4th 2:07:46/Rio Olympics, 4th, 2:11:04/New York City, 1st, 2:07:51) – A strong year for a man who turned 21 years old in November. Fourth in the always hyper-competitive London race, same spot in the Olympics, then an impressive win in the fifth fastest time ever run in NYC. He only ranks behind Rupp because of the race in Rio, where Rupp beat him (by almost a minute). My question is: will Ghebreslassie end up like Tsegaye Kebede? Which is to say, someone who has amazing races from age 19/20 onward, but who is essentially done as a major force in the marathon well before his 30th birthday? (Thought: is it true that ‘there are only so many marathons’ in each body?)

6. Wilson Kipsang, Kenya, 34 years old – (London, 5th, 2:07:52/Berlin, 2nd, 2:03:13) – I admit, I was fooled: at 34, with a DNF (2015 Worlds), well-beaten fourth (2015 NYC), and well-beaten fifth in 2:07 (2016 London) in his previous three marathons, I thought Kipsang’s best days were behind him heading into 2016 Berlin. In fact, rumor had it that he let the Kenyan Olympic selection committee know that he wasn’t interested in going to Rio, so wasn’t that an admission that he didn’t fancy his chances? Yes, he could still be competitive, could probably on the right day even dip under 2:05, but his best days were behind him, right? Wrong. Kipsang’s PR race in Berlin was, for me, even more surprising than that of Bekele’s. That 2:03:13 was scorching. Combined with a top-five finish in the year’s most competitive field at London, this gives him a well-deserved top-10 spot in the rankings.

8. Lemi Berhanu Hayle, Ethiopia, 22 years old – (Dubai, 2nd, 2:04:33/Boston, 1st, 2:12:45/Rio Olympics, 13th, 2:13:29) – Berhanu was in the medal hunt in Rio until he faded badly in the final miles. Still, a second at the very competitive Dubai race in the year’s sixth fastest time plus a win in Boston put him up in the top 10.

10. Stanley Biwott, Kenya, 30 years old – (London, 2nd, 2:03:51/Rio Olympics, DNF/New York City, DNF) – I know, I know: with 2 DNF’s, how can Biwott be ranked in the top 10? I guess the opposite question is, how can a man run 2:03 and not be ranked in the top 10? And as that 2:03 came at London, with its high-quality field, his second place finish & his time that day (a full 37 seconds under Kipsang’s previous course record of 2:04:29, the 12th fastest marathon time in history) gets him a top-10 spot.

Honorable Mention

a) Daniel Wanjiru, Kenya, 24 years old – (Amsterdam, 1st, 2:05:21/Prague, 4th, 2:09:25) – a splendid 2:05:21 won the Amsterdam Marathon in a new course record over some stiff competition (Sammy Kitwara 2:05:43, Marius Kimutai 2:05:47, Laban Korir 2:05:54, Ezekiel Chebii 2:06:06, plus previous course record holder Wilson Chebet and previous winner Bernard Kipyego), but his fourth place finish in Prague in 2:09:25 in May didn’t add to his Amsterdam result to help him make the cut.

b) Lucas Rotich, Kenya, 26 years old (Lake Biwa, 1st, 2:09:11/New York City, 2nd, 2:08:53) – I toyed with putting him in the top 10, but in the end, neither the field in Lake Biwa nor New York City was strong enough to garner him a top-10 spot. (Rotich was one of six men to break 2:10 at Lake Biwa, but in this day and age, that is no longer a mark of a highly competitive field.)

c) Abel Kirui, Kenya, 34 years old – (Tokyo, 5th, 2:08:06/Chicago, 1st, 2:11:23) – a fifth at Tokyo (2:08:06) and a first at Chicago (2:11:23) shows that, like fellow 34-year-old compatriot Kipsang and 34-year-old Bekele, his career isn’t over (though unlike Kipsang and Bekele, Kirui is not still running PR’s, his 2:05:04 dating back to 2009). In this Olympic year, Chicago had a weak field, so a win there doesn’t carry as much weight as it has in the past. Hence, he doesn’t make the cut.

What do you think of these rankings? Talk about them on our fan forum / messageboard. MB: 2016 Men’s Marathon Rankings controversy – Where should Galen Rupp be ranked?

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