2016 NCAA XC Championships Men’s Final Projected Qualifiers
By LetsRun.com
November 11, 2016
Below you will find the projected team qualifiers for the 2016 NCAA Division I Men’s Cross Country Championship, to be held on November 19 in Terre Haute, Ind. Using Bo Waggoner‘s computer program, which follows the formula used to select at-large teams to NCAAs, we can project which teams will qualify for nationals. It appears the Midshipmen of Navy are going to NCAAs for the first time since 1997 while Middle Tennessee State is going for the 1st time ever
All 9 regions are final so these are our final projections.
NOTE: We are aware that Flotrack has released their own projections and ours differ significantly from theirs. The difference begins at No. 23 (i.e. the fifth at-large spot). Flotrack has Oregon getting in, likely because they have been pushed by Washington State. But according to our program, both Oregon and Washington State make it in later in the process without the push. It’s a little tricky, as Oregon is in a three-way tie at the No. 28 spot with Eastern Michigan and Eastern Kentucky, but we have Oregon winning tiebreakers against both schools. That puts Oregon into the meet at No. 28 and Washington State (now unblocked by Oregon, who beat them at regionals) in at No. 29.
Update: For the 2nd year in a row, Flotrack has admitted their initial predictions were wrong and yet again they are now agreeing with us. MB: Did Flotrack screw up again and give out the wrong NCAA predictions?
A reminder: these projections are UNOFFICIAL. The official qualifiers will be posted on NCAA.com by 3 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 12. As of Friday evening, with all regional results accounted for, these are our projections. We will update the page if our projections change. If you believe we are wrong or you see a mistake, please email us at robertjohnson@letsrun.com.
Talk about the regionals on our messageboard: MB: Official NCAA XC Regional Thread — Including LIVE At-Large Projections .
Teams selected:
Auto Qualifiers
Wisconsin (#14) – Won Great Lakes
Michigan State (No. 18 ) – 2nd Great Lakes
Georgetown (#22) – Won Mid-Atlantic
Navy (UR) – 2nd Mid-Atlantic
Oklahoma State (#9) – 1st in Midwest
Tulsa (#23) – 2nd in Midwest
Northern Arizona (#1) – 1st in Mountain
Colorado (#2) – 2nd in Moutnain
Syracuse (#5) – Won NE Regional
Iona (#7) – 2nd NE Regional
Mississippi (#11) – won South Regional
Mid. Tennesse St (#26) – 2nd South Regional
Arkansas (#6) – Won SC Regional
Texas (RV) – 2nd SC Regional
NC State (#27) – Won SE Regional
Virginia (#16) – 2nd SE Regional
Stanford (#4) – Won West Regional
Portland (#12) – 2nd West Regional
At Large Qualifiers
BYU (#3) – 3rd in Mountain
Illinois (UR) – 3rd in Midwest
Iowa State (#13) – 4th in Midwest
UCLA (#8) – 3rd in West
Colorado St. (#19) – 4th in Mountain
Dartmouth (UR) – 3rd in NE Regional
Providence (#30) – 4th NE Regional
UTEP (#15) – 5th in Mountain
Southern Utah (#24) – 6th in Mountain
Oregon (#10) – 4th in West
Washingon St. (#17) – 5th in West
California (UR) – 6th in West
Boise State (#20) – 7th in West
RV = receiving votes, UR = unranked.
Ranked Teams That Didn’t Make It
#21 Indiana – 3rd in Great Lakes
#25 Eastern Michigan– 4th in Great Lakes
#28 Penn– 4th in Mid-Atlantic
#29 Michigan – 5th in Great Lakes
Unranked Tams That Made It
Navy (UR)– 2nd in Mid-Atlantic
Texas (RV) – 2nd in SC
Illinois (UR) –3rd in Midwest
Dartmouth (UR) – 3rd in NE Regional
California (UR) – 6th in West
Congrats to the #NavyMXC squad for advancing to the @NCAA Championship for the 1st time since 1997! – https://t.co/ifydUFEoZt pic.twitter.com/TrGyA2Xtp6
— Navy Athletics (@NavyAthletics) November 11, 2016
Logic Used
Auto Teams
1: wisconsin is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) byu, ucla, iowa state, washington state, colorado state;
2: michigan state is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) byu, ucla, iowa state, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, boise state, washington, eastern michigan; (roy_griak) iowa state, boise state, michigan;
3: georgetown is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) byu, ucla, iowa state, washington state, colorado state, southern utah;
4: navy is selected, has losses to (paul_short) penn, columbia; (roy_griak) iowa state, boise state, michigan, ucla, colorado state, southern utah, minnesota, illinois;
5: oklahoma state is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
6: tulsa is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) byu, ucla, iowa state, washington state, colorado state, southern utah;
7: northern arizona is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
8: colorado is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon;
9: syracuse is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) byu; (panorama_farms) byu;
10: iona is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) byu;
11: mississippi is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
12: middle tennessee is selected, has losses to (louisville_classic) virginia tech; (cusa) utep;
13: arkansas is selected, has losses to (battle_in_beantown) dartmouth, providence; (pre_nats) oregon;
14: texas is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky, providence, illinois, southern utah, washington state, california, air force, bradley, eastern michigan; (penn_state_natl_open) virginia tech; (big_12s) iowa state;
15: nc state is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky, providence, illinois, southern utah, washington state, california, air force, bradley; (wisconsin_invite) byu, ucla, iowa state, washington state, colorado state, southern utah, boise state, washington, eastern michigan, providence, penn, florida state, minnesota, south dakota state;
16: virginia is selected, has losses to (panorama_farms) byu;
17: stanford is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
18: portland is selected, has losses to (wccs) byu; (wisconsin_invite) byu, ucla;
Teams under consideration: byu (11), iowa state (8), ucla (7), colorado state (6), providence (4), illinois (3), eastern michigan (3), eastern kentucky (2), oregon (2), penn (2), dartmouth (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), indiana (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: washington state (7), southern utah (7), boise state (4), utep (3), washington (2), minnesota (2), bradley (2), air force (2), michigan (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (1),
19: byu is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration: iowa state (8), ucla (7), colorado state (6), providence (4), illinois (3), eastern michigan (3), utep (3), eastern kentucky (2), oregon (2), penn (2), dartmouth (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), indiana (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: washington state (7), southern utah (7), boise state (4), washington (2), minnesota (2), bradley (2), air force (2), michigan (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (1),
20: illinois is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
21: iowa state is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) ucla;
Teams under consideration: ucla (8), colorado state (6), providence (4), eastern michigan (3), utep (3), eastern kentucky (2), bradley (2), oregon (2), penn (2), dartmouth (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), indiana (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: washington state (7), southern utah (7), boise state (4), washington (2), minnesota (2), air force (2), michigan (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (1),
22: ucla is selected, has losses to (roy_griak) boise state, michigan;
Teams under consideration: washington state (7), colorado state (6), providence (4), eastern michigan (3), utep (3), eastern kentucky (2), bradley (2), oregon (2), penn (2), dartmouth (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), indiana (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: southern utah (7), boise state (5), michigan (3), washington (2), minnesota (2), air force (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (1),
washington state not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
23: colorado state is selected, has losses to (wisconsin_invite) washington state; (roy_griak) boise state, michigan; (u_washington_invite) oregon; (mountain_wests) boise state;
Teams under consideration: southern utah (7), providence (4), eastern michigan (3), oregon (3), utep (3), eastern kentucky (2), bradley (2), penn (2), dartmouth (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), indiana (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: washington state (8), boise state (7), michigan (4), washington (2), minnesota (2), air force (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1), columbia (1),
southern utah not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
24: dartmouth is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
25: providence is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) utep, eastern kentucky; (wisconsin_invite) washington state, southern utah, boise state, washington, eastern michigan;
Teams under consideration: eastern michigan (4), utep (4), eastern kentucky (3), oregon (3), bradley (2), penn (2), columbia (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), indiana (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: washington state (9), boise state (8), southern utah (8), michigan (4), washington (3), minnesota (2), air force (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1),
utep wins head-to-head tiebreaker over eastern michigan (relevant meets: joe_piane)
26: utep is selected, has losses to (pre_nats) oregon, michigan, indiana;
Teams under consideration: southern utah (8), eastern michigan (4), oregon (4), eastern kentucky (3), bradley (2), penn (2), air force (2), indiana (1), columbia (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0),
Others with points: washington state (9), boise state (8), michigan (5), washington (3), minnesota (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1),
27: southern utah is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) eastern kentucky; (wisconsin_invite) washington state; (roy_griak) boise state, michigan;
Teams under consideration: eastern kentucky (4), eastern michigan (4), oregon (4), bradley (2), penn (2), air force (2), indiana (1), columbia (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0), utah state (0),
Others with points: washington state (10), boise state (9), michigan (6), washington (3), minnesota (2), california (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1),
no head-to-head tiebreaker for eastern kentucky and eastern michigan (relevant meets: joe_piane, wisconsin_invite)
no head-to-head tiebreaker for eastern kentucky and oregon (relevant meets: )
no head-to-head tiebreaker for eastern michigan and oregon (relevant meets: )
eastern kentucky wins common opponents over eastern michigan (win percentages: 0.64, 0.4727272727272727) (common opponents: new mexico, ut arlington, princeton, iona, washington state, northern arizona, purdue, alabama, columbia, texas a&m, mississippi, iowa state, weber state, illinois, baylor, syracuse, bradley, california, providence, texas, utep, washington, south dakota state, stanford, colorado state, yale, byu, notre dame, southern utah, portland, georgetown, air force, wisconsin, florida state, unc, boise state, michigan state, tulsa, minnesota, penn, nc state, nebraska, ucla)
oregon wins common opponents over eastern kentucky (win percentages: 0.7619047619047619, 0.4) (common opponents: bradley, portland, washington state, purdue, air force, boise state, california, utep, stanford, colorado state, furman, campbell, washington, ucla)
oregon wins common opponents over eastern michigan (win percentages: 0.782608695652174, 0.2777777777777778) (common opponents: indiana, bradley, portland, washington state, purdue, air force, boise state, california, butler, stanford, utep, ohio state, washington, michigan, colorado state, ucla)
28: oregon is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration: washington state (10), eastern kentucky (4), eastern michigan (4), bradley (2), california (2), penn (2), air force (2), indiana (1), columbia (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0), utah state (0),
Others with points: boise state (9), michigan (6), washington (3), minnesota (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1),
29: washington state is selected, has losses to (joe_piane) eastern kentucky;
Teams under consideration: boise state (9), eastern kentucky (5), eastern michigan (4), bradley (2), california (2), penn (2), air force (2), indiana (1), columbia (1), furman (0), ut arlington (0), texas a&m (0), princeton (0), georgia (0), alabama (0), utah state (0),
Others with points: michigan (6), washington (3), minnesota (2), virginia tech (2), south dakota state (1), florida state (1),
30: california is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
31: boise state is selected, has no losses to teams remaining