February 21, 2014
Jordan Hasay has come a long way in a short period of time. When she turned pro, some wondered if she’d ever make a US outdoor team. She made her very first one in the 10,000 – an event she didn’t even make NCAAs in. Now she enters the 2014 USA Indoor Track and Field Championships as the favorite in the women’s 3,000 based on 2014 accomplishments.
Here is the whole field (Bold = has IAAF World qualifying time of 9:02 indoors/8:38 outdoors).
Gabriele Grunewald (nee Anderson)
Indoor PR came at Millrose this month. Outdoor PR of 8:42.64. Also has very fast 1,500 PR of 4:01.48.
On 2013 WC team in the 10,000. Double NCAA champ indoors in 2011. SBs of 4:28.37 mile and 9:36.00 2-mile.
Former NCAA 1,500 champ (2007) has an indoor PR of 8:54.74 from last year. 3rd in the mile at USATF indoors last year.
Boulder Track Club
The Club Nationals XC individual champ from back in December is a former CU Buffalo and should be right at home at 5,000 feet altitude.
Comes in with a nice mile PR of 4:35.10 this season.
Largely off the radar last year. Hitting stride again with a 4:34.73 mile win over Maier on Feb. 15th.
2009 WC bronze medalist at 1,500 has made the last 2 Olympic 1,500 finals and last year’s WC 5,000 final. 4-time national champion has an outdoor 3,000 PR of 8:31.38, but has only run 9:52.18 for 2 miles so far this season.
Rapidly improving. Beat some national class runners in recent 3,000 PR race.
9:47 steepler comes in having run an indoor PR of 4:35.07 for the mile on Feb. 1st.
Don’t let the 9:19 PR fool you. Cheever’s 9:29.13 steeple ranks 5th on the all-time US list.
Former NCAA champ at 3,000 indoors and 5,000 outdoors. 8:57.40 PR from 2010.
Former Arizona runner has run 9:20 twice this year.
Roanoke Valley Elite
4:45 mile this year.
Bowerman Athletic Club
4:17 1,500 PR for former Gonzaga runner.
Bowerman Athletic Club
Nice to PR at age 30.
Boulder Running Company/adidas
2013 10,000 All-American at NAU just finished 6th at USA XC.
The two spots to World Indoors are likely to go to one of the following three people – Hasay, Gabriele Grunewald (formerly Anderson) and Shannon Rowbury (there are only 5 people in the field with the 9:02 indoor qualifying time or 8:38 outdoor time).
Anderson didn’t run very well in Boston (9:55 2-mile) but improved to 8:53 in the 3,000 last week. Given her 8:42 outdoor PR and her 4:01 1,500 speed, she’s hard to discount. The problem is this is her third 3,000/2-mile in the span of 3 weeks.
Hasay is running better than ever (4:28 mile PR and 9:36 2-mile). She was way ahead of Grunewald in Boston, but Hasay’s Achilles heel has been that she’s really struggled in the last 400 in each of those personal bests. She’ll have to finish hard here or she’ll be staying home.
Rowbury beat Gruenewald in Boston (9:52 to 9:55) and nearly beat Hasay last week in a mile in Albuquerque (4:43.58 to 4:43.71). She’s got the best credentials of anyone in the race (4:00.33 PR, 8:31 3k PR) and seems to be coming on at the right moment.
Who besides those three have a chance? We definitely think the other two women with the Worlds qualifying mark of 9:02, Laura Thweatt and Brie Felnagle, can’t be overlooked. Felnagle only ran 9:01 last week in New York as compared to Gruenwald’s 8:53, but that was her first big test of 2014. With the rust off, she’s got a chance. Boulder resident Thweatt certainly won’t be impacted by altitude. She’s in the form of her life and undefeated for 2014. Deborah Maier is the only other runner under 9:10 this year, but won’t go to Worlds if she’s top 2 unless she runs under 9:02.00 in Albuquerque.
Predictions: If we had faith in Hasay’s finish, she’d be the easy pick here. But we don’t. Has she not finished well because she’s basically been in time trials and just bit off more than she could chew? Or is she sort of like Galen Rupp was in his first few years of college – really good but with one fatal flaw?
It’s really hard not to pick her to win here since she beat Rowbury and Grunewald by 16 and 19 seconds in Boston, but when is the last time Hasay won a big race?
Rowbury is the class of the field based on past accomplishments. She got off to a slow start in 2014, but was right with Hasay in the mile last week. Grunewald was much improved last week as well.
It’s too bad the college runners can’t run this one since they’re coming to the championship portion of the college season. Abbey D’Agostino, with a SB of 8:51.91, could really stir things up, and a host of sub-9:10 types (including Emily Sisson, who also has the Worlds standard with a SB of 9:00.76) would make it a much deeper field overall. In fact, the NCAA women’s 3,000 will be far more competitive front-to-back (even if only American collegians are considered) than its USATF counterpart.
Final Predictions: This is a tough one. We guess will go with the NOP runners 1-2. Does Hasay arrive in style like Chris Derrick did in XC (with a victory)? We’re not convinced and will pick Rowbury for the win.