2014 Millrose Games Preview: Bye-Bye Alan Webb, Hello Teen Phenoms, Record Attempts Galore

by LetsRun.com
February 14, 2014

The historic NYRR Millrose Games take place on Saturday before a life national television audience on the NBC Sports Network from 3 –  5 pm ET. The action promises to be special as there are a slew of great events to watch. At Millrose this year, Alan Webb is retiring, Mary Cain, Alexa Efraimson, Nick Symmonds and Robby Andrews are going for records, Nick Willis and Kim Conley are trying to stay in the winner’s circle, the US meets Iceland’s Mary Cain and Bernard Lagat looks for perhaps a final Millrose victory.

The action is so good it’s almost made us forget that a Millrose not at Madison Square Garden is like going to a Red Sox home game not at Fenway. Seriously this may be the last year we beat a dead horse on that front as we are excited to see Saturday’s action – so excited we’ll be there in person to cover it for you.

You can see the whole schedule of events here but below we preview the professional mid-d and distance events that occur during the tv window. There also are two high schools miles and a collegiate men’s 4 x  800 which we don’t preview. Entries are here though if you want to preview it for yourself.

We present the events in the order that they occur so you can think of this as an unofficial program. We just saved you $10 bucks – you’re welcome.

3:29 pm Women’s 3,000: Can anyone stop the Kim Conley express?

The professional distance events get started with the women’s 3000.

In our minds, there is a clear favorite. No it’s not reigning NCAA indoor 3000 and 5000, outdoor 5000 and cross country champion Abbey D’Agostino. D’Agostino comes into this race in good form as she’s run a 4:28.31 mile pb this winter but the favorite is 2012 Olympian and 2013 World Championship team member Kim Conley. Conley has been on fire so far in 2014 having earned dominant victories in the mile (4:24.54) and 2000 (5:41.10) so far this year and she has a 3000 pb that is much faster than D’Agostino (8:47.95 to 8:55.41).

If Conley doesn’t win, we’d be shocked but who else besides D’Agostino could pull the upset? Former NCAA star Betsy Saina, with her 31:15 10,000 pb can’t be ignored but 3000 is short for her. The good news for Saina fans is she’s in good shape as she’s run 15:28 already this winter. The field also includes some middle distance runners testing their endurance including Gabriele Grunewald, Brie Felnagle, and Italian Margherita Magnani, who recently set the Italian 1k record.

LetsRun.com Prediction: Conley FTW. If she doesn’t win, then D’Agostino is your winner.

In case you are wondering, the collegiate record for the event is 8:42.03 (Jenny Simpson). the American record is 8:33.25 (Shalane Flanagan). Both of those seem safe.

The collegiate #1 mark for 2014 is 9:00.76. That should go for sure.

3:56 pm: Paavo Nurmi 2,000m run: Can Bernard Lagat do it yet again at Millrose?

The story line for the men’s 2000 is Bernard Lagat, the eight time Wannamaker mile champion, looks for Millrose glory one more time at age 39.

Yes 39.

Lagat is not going to have an easy time of it as this features a fantastic field of some of North America’s top talent. Lagat has run 7:38 so far this year for 3000. 10 years ago, that would easily make him the #1 in the US. Not in the year 2014. Andrew Bumbalough ran 7:37 last week in Boston. That being said, Lagat has to be favored over Bumbalough. Why? Because Lagat is 7 and 0 lifetime when racing Bumbalough.

That streak has to end at some point, maybe Saturday, but to say Bumbalough is favored because he’s run faster at 3000 would be incorrect.

The only other guy in the field we think might win this race is US steeple record holder Evan Jager who has a 7:35 outdoor 3000 personal best. Still just 24, he’s about to enter the prime years of his career.

The field has lots of other talent including 3:33/13:16 man David Torrence, who ran on the world record 4 x 800 team last week in Boston. 2000 might be an ideal distance for him. But Torrence didn’t look great in a 1500 in the UK in January so we don’t think he’s the winner here.

Prediction: This is a tough one for us. The end has to be near for Lagat soon. We’ll give him one last victory here but a victory by Jager or Bumbalough wouldn’t surprise at all. We’re very tempted to pick Jager but just remembered that last year Lagat set the then 2-mile American record of 8:09.49 at Millrose. Last year’s results were as follows:.

The Canadian Cam Levins is racing here again this year. If it was 3000, we’d feel confident in Lagat, but 2000 is short for him at age 39. This one should be tight.

Note from LetsRun.com stat/coaching guru John Kellogg: The 2,000 is rarely contested, so many people may not know how to pace it the first time they do it. But expect the times to be about 28% slower than an equivalent mile time. A 4:55 2k is therefore equal to about 3:50 for the mile, 5:00 for 2k is about a 3:54 mile equivalent, and 5:05 is worth about 3:58.

Steve Scott‘s indoor 2,000 American record of 4:58.6 would be a 3:53 high mile equivalent.

4:18 PM Women’s NYRR Wanamaker Mile: A Totally Loaded Field With All Eyes on Teen Sensations Mary Cain and Alexa Efraimson

The women’s Wanamaker mile promises to be a real treat. The favorite has to be last year’s runner-up Mary Cain. She missed the world junior mark by .01 in her last mile in Boston when when she ran 4:24.11. We’re glad that’s the case as she’ll now likely get to break it in front of tens of thousands on a live national tv versus doing it on front Mom, Dad and Grandpa on a pay per view Internet telecast.

The US record is held by Mary Slaney at 4:20.5. To us, that’s a nearly impossible quest for Cain at this point. She keeps getting better and better but do we think she’s 3.5 seconds better than she was 3 weeks ago? We doubt it (well maybe if they had Genzebe Dibaba here to rabbit the whole thing for Cain) but Cain continues to defy expectations.

Mary Cain getting the win in Boston last week *More New Balance Boston Photos

Can anyone beat Cain? We don’t think so. If she does lose, it probably will be to teammate Treniere Moser, who nearly beat Cain in a 1k earlier this winter and ran aggressively early in Boston last week before fading, or the New Jersey/New York Track Club’s Amanda Winslow (Oiselle). Winslow has been on fire this year. The 2013 NCAA runner-up comes in after two big PRs.

There are a lot of other story lines to watch besides who wins, however. The big one is can 2013 NXN winner Alexa Efraimson beat Mary Cain’s 4:28.25 age 16 world’s best that Cain ran here last year. Efraimson already has beaten Cain’s age 16 3000 (and US HS) record this winter. We’ve also heard rumors that Florida’s Cory McGee is dreaming of Jenny Simpson‘s collegiate record of 4:25.91. At a minimum, McGee has got a shot at D’Agostino’s 2013 collegiate leader of 4:28.81. And we’ll be paying attention to the comebacks of Olympians Morgan Uceny and Emma Coburn here as well. Does Uceny take a step forward from the 4:30.57 she ran in NY a few weeks ago. Can Coburn break her 4:29.86 PR?

LetsRun.com Prediction: Cain FTW in a new world junior mark. Efraimson under Cain’s mark from last year.

If Efraimson somehow wins this race, people will be going crazy and saying, “Mary who?””

Messageboard Discussion: Cain and Efraimson will Race Soon, What if Cain Loses???

Random Fact: The Wanamaker Department stores ceased to exist in 1995. The women’s mile started being called the Wannamaker Mile last year. We’re all for equality but some might say that’s bordering on stupidity.

4:32 Mel Sheppard 1000m: An Assault on the 2:17.86 American Record

David Krummenacker‘s American record is 2:17.86 and this is hyped as an AR attempt for Nick Symmonds, who has run 2:16.35 outdoors. The 1k seems like an ideal distance for the world championship silver medalist who isn’t real speedy over 400. As good as Symmonds is at 800, one might think he’d even be better at 1k. However, last week, Symmonds told us he banged up his knee a little bit (and while running behind, he only split 1:49.37). It’s hard to break an American record unless you are 100% on top of your game.

Could anyone else break it? Yes. Robby Andrews ran 2:17.90 last year in New York and just missed Krummenacker’s mark. Andrews is the high school record holder in the event and seems ideally suited for the 1000. He’s been struggling in recent years at other events but not the 1k. He ran well last week – an indoor 1k pb of 1:47.07.

This whole field is FULL OF QUALITY. Pierre Ambroise Bosse has run 1:43.76, Tyler Mulder has run 1:44.34 outdoors, Erik Sowinski just anchored a team to a 4 x 800 world record last week and Mike Rutt, Andrews’ teammate, just ran 1:46.71 last week. But none of them are accomplished as Andrews at 1k.

LetsRun.com prediction: Robby Andrews is officially back. American record.

PS. If Andrews gets the American record, can someone petition the IAAF and please tell them he should be considered to have the qualifier for World Indoors event though he hasn’t run 1:47.00 this year.

PPS. Update: We’ve just read Lotsbom’s pre-race preview and he has quotes from Symmonds about the AR here. Symmonds says the record will go down and reports his teammate Tyler Mulder wanted to go out in 1:47-8. Symmonds thinks 1:49 is better. Reading Symmonds talk about the record going down makes us very nervous picking against him as he’s by far the most accomplished guy in the field. ” But the article reminds us that last year Symmonds ran Millrose hoping to get the 600 AR and Erik Sowinski got it. Will history repeat itself?

4:38 PM Road To Rio Women’s 800: The Battle of the Teen Sensations

Are you a fan of Mary Cain? What about teen phenoms? Then this race is for you.

This race on paper seems to be a battle between America’s 19-year old sensation Ajee Wilson, who with less fanfare last year placed higher in the 800 at Worlds than Cain did in the 1500 (6th versus 10th) and Iceland’s now 18-year old sensation Anita Hindrikstdottir, who ran 2:00:49 last year at age 17 , and 2013 NCAA indoor and outdoor champion Natoya Goule (formerly of LSU), who ran 1:59.43 last year. Canadian 19-year old Jenna Westaway, who has run 2:02.57 this year, has an outside shot as well.

Who has the edge? It’s hard to say as it’s the first 800 of the year for both Goule and Wilson so we guess Hindriksdottir, the world Youth champion. It’s hard to say.

LetsRun.com prediction: We’re very excited to see Hindriksdottir race for the first time in person. We’ll pick “Iceland’s Mary Cain” for the win as Wilson was way back in the 1k last week in Boston (2:48).

4:48 pm: Men’s Wanamaker Mile: Alan Webb Says Goodbye – Nick Willis Tries To Stay Hot

Millrose will come to an end (the main part of the meet anyway) with a fantastic Wanamaker mile.

We’ll talk about the contenders for the win in a moment. But the eyes of many, including us, will be focused on someone finishing in the middle, actually probably back of the pack.

This race is the last race of the professional track career for Alan Webb. It’s only fitting that Webb’s track career (he’s moving to the triathlon) end at the Armory because the Armory is in some ways where the phenomenon that is/was Alan Webb began in 2001.

Because he is the American mile record holder at 3:46.91, Webb would be somewhat famous but he has been a phenomenon that has kept track fans fixated on virtually all of his performances for the last 13 years because of his high school exploits. Alan Webb is Alan Webb because he was a HS phenom. In January of 2001, Webb became the first US preps to break 4:00 in the mile in 34 years by running 3:59.86 (finishing just ahead of a guy in a letsrun.com singlet). He then became a celebrity by running 3:53 outdoors that summer.

Webb has run two miles this winter. A 4:02.81 on January 18th and a 4:03.52 on February 1st. The story book ending is for him to break four one last time here. He’s going to really need the fans help to do it. Even if he doesn’t, we will give him a standing ovation. No cheering in the press box? We’ll skip that rule on Saturday.

Ok, now onto handicapping the race. Up front, 2008 Olympic silver medallist Nick Willis is in fine form and is the favorite. Willis may only be 3 months younger than Webb but you’d never know that if you watched him race last week in Boston where Willis won easily and then post-race he told us he’s been enjoying some of the best workouts of his life.

Chris O’Hare after setting the collegiate record last year. 2013 Millrose Photos

Can anyone beat Willis? We doubt it but the top contenders are Arizona’s Lawi Lalang and former Tulsa runner Chris O’Hare. O’Hare ran a collegiate record of 3:52.98 last year at Millrose and comes into this race after finishing second at the British champs.Lalang, who ran 3:54.56 last year at Millrose, just ran 7:44 for 3000 so we know he’s fit and he’s run a 1:51 for 800 already this winter as well. With a 13:00 5000 pb, there is little doubt in our minds that Lalang is one of the best runners in the world. He potentially could break O’Hare’s collegiate record from last year. But the mile isn’t Lalang’s #1 event and Nick Willis is one of the best milers in the world.

LetsRun.com Prediction: Willis FTW. Webb over 4.

PS. We’ll be paying close attention to Leo Manzano here. This is a BIG race for him. Still sponsorless, he doesn’t want to start the year with a second straight disaster.

PPS. The Wanamaker mile used to be always be run at the end of the meet – at 10 pm to appear live on the local news. The event still comes at the end of the main portion of the meet but well before 10 pm. Fans rejoice, it will give you way more time to have a romantic dinner with your significant other in case every place was booked on Valentine’s Day.

PPS. Nick Willis is a TOTAL CLASS ACT. Check out what he said about Webb at the press-conference, ““Alan ran his first ever sub-four minute mile on this track, and that was the exact same day I ran my 4:01 mile in New Zealand, a high school record as well. This is going to be his retirement race and we get to run together. We’ve been good friends over the years. We didn’t run at [the University of] Michigan together but we have the [coach] Ron Warhurst relation. It’s a real honor to be in the same race as him.”