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RE: Who has the edge? Shelby Houlihan vs Caster Semenya at 1500 in Lausanne on Thursday
It's easy to say that Semenya will dominate everyone like she does in the 800 because of her condition, but if you simply look at her accomplishments over 1500 compared to the rest of the field and assume she hasn't been sandbagging, she probably isn't the favorite. Then again, she's relatively new to the event and obviously has the greatest potential of anyone. But this is gonna be a fascinating race. Any of Semenya, Houlihan, Hassan, Muir, or Tsegay have a real shot at winning this. Semenya and Houlihan will have the same tactic of hanging onto the back of the pack and trying to steal the win in the last 100. However, Tsegay ran 3:57 after going out in 60 flat, and I expect her to try something similar here to drop the two big kickers. But then you have Hassan who dominated the circuit last year, and Muir, who is likely the legit world record holder if clean. Really tough to make a prediction, but I think the pace will be fast enough to drop Semenya who won't be used to coming under that sort of pressure. However, Houlihan will have just enough to hold on, and she'll steal it over Tsegay at the line. I can't wait to see this one.

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