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RE: Wait, why is Kirui not the favorite?

kick like ismael wrote:

Did I miss something in the past few months? All I know is:

1) He won Boston and Worlds last year, defeating his two most heralded competitors (Rupp and Tola) in those races
2) He was the consensus #1 marathoner (non-Kipchoge division) in 2017
3) No one has talked to him, but it seems he's training well.

Did I miss some 63-minute HM somewhere? Or an injury? Look, I can see why you could be really excited about Rupp. Or really excited about Tola etc. So I'm not saying he needs to be *your* favorite. But he's the favorite on paper, right? Why is no one talking about him that way?

As for Kirui, right after we published that we didn't get to speak to him at the press event, on the way out of the press, we did bump into agent Valentin Truow in the restaurant at the hotel and Truow said Kirui was fit but has changed things up.

Kirui no longer wrks Canova. Last year before Boston, he'd leave the part of Kenya where he's pretty much the only big elite and go see Canova for key workouts. Before Worlds, he did that a few times but less than before Bston.

This time he hasn't been going to Canova at all bu when you are training alone, it's hard to know where you stand and t he did want to see how he was doing fitness wise so he went to Patrick Sang's camp to do some workouts so he could get a gauge of whether he's in shape or not (Remember, these guys are often running on feel, not on time courses and at big time altitude). He ended up staying at Sang's camp for close to 3 weeks.

So I think Kirui - given his wins in 2017 - deserves to be the favorite on paper if they are both in form. The reason why Rupp may get the nod inn the prediction cntest is everyone 100% know he's in shape based off of that 59:47. With no prep races, you have to take people's word that Kirui isn't just 80% fit and showing up mainly for the appearance fee.

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