another average american wrote:
I hadn't paid much attention to this thread, or the original, until I stumbled across the New Yorker article.
It's clear that he cheated. Each inconsistency has an explanation that is improbably but entirely possible. People do accidentally run off courses, I suppose it's possible that a sub-3 marathoner might not know to display the bib, etc. etc. But if you treat it as statistics, you have to multiply the probability of the veracity of each individual explanation to get the probability of the veracity of all of them as a whole.
Take your run-of-the-mill honest runner who goes off course accidentally. Of course there is always a chance that he cheated, but in reality we've all had course issues at one time or another so let's say 9/10 chance that he's telling the truth. Next race he changes pants or whatever. Really unlikely that this would happen but let's again give him the benefit of the doubt and say that there's a 9/10 chance he's telling the truth. So there's a 90% chance of him telling the truth in each individual instance, but only an 81% chance that he told the truth both times. There's a third incident that also has a 9/10 chance of being true. Well after 3 incidents we're at a 72.9% chance of actually being true. After 10 incidents we're down to a 35% chance of all of them being true, and Kip Litton has way, way more than 10 inconsistencies, and I'd also say that each inconsistency has less than a 9/10 chance of being true.
So if you believe he is pretty untrustworthy and are entirely unsure whether he's lying or not and there's a 5/10 chance of him telling the truth for each individual incidence, 10 odd incidents gives him a 0.01% (yes, that's 0.01 percent, not 1%!) chance of having all of these inconsistencies being explained by what he says.
So, he cheated. It's also likely that he or his friends are the ones writing all of these pro-Kip Litton messages; there's so much evidence that I won't go into here because it's just not worth it.
But in the end, I just think it is really sad. Kip Litton is consumed by this, by cheating, creating websites, creating fake races, figuring out ways to game the race. Ultimately this is about much more than a simple cheat. He is not an elite athlete who has sponsorships or glory on the line. He is a sick, sick person. Think of how much time he (or his friends) is spending here in his own defense. It's incomprehensible to most of us. It's pathetic, and I don't mean that in a derogatory way; it is literally sad and pathetic that he feels the compulsion to do this.
Perhaps the best way to help him is to ignore him (I know, I just wrote a post about him). Of course since we now know he cheats the running community does need to be on the lookout to be sure he doesn't try to cheat others out of their awards, but after that what use is it to pillory him? We know what happened, he knows what happened. What we don't know is the why, but I'm guessing the answer would be the same as why Tiger Woods self-destructed, why some people spend 16+ hours a day online. I don't know the psychology of compulsions, but it's clearly at work here.
Nice post. Id love to ignore him, but the guy just won't confess. He continues to tell us that family members traveled with him all over the country and witnessed that he could not possibly have ever cheated. This is about the worst thing he can do from a Public relations standpoint. He is just a coward and a fool. He needs to be a man and just acknowledge what he did and stop being a douchebag.