Where Your Dreams Become Reality
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Subject: RE: American Distance Medals
This is pretty much on the money.
On the women's side Alysia Montano in the 800 is certainly the best bet - probably silver or bronze.
In the 1500, American aspirations were higher at the beginning of the year than they are now. Uceny is a low probability choice for a bronze. To have a medium/high probability of a medal we'd need a sub 4 minute performance at this point in the season, but the record of Uceny, Simpson and Rowbury this year just doesn't support that. In fact, only Jenny has done it, but that was in 2009, and she really hasn't come close since she decided to focus on the 1500.
Shalane Flanagan might do it in the 10000 - low to moderate probablity of medal.
I would love to think Coburn could place in the steeplechase, a wonderful level of confidence there, but her times don't quite seem to be competitive with the world. I wonder if Jenny Simpson now questions the wisdom of moving down to the 1500 from an event where she still has the American record.
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