Where Your Dreams Become Reality
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Subject: RE: Webb's Chance to Make the Olympics
Very few people are mentioning Wheating in all of this. I don't understand why?
Lomong is very good... but I see him running the 5000 at the Trials. He also is a bit erratic and not all that explosive. He's like Teg. Teg could probably run 3:33 flat when he was in 12:58 shape... and could kick a 54 off a 13:20 pace. Sound familiar? Lomong is not a lock for the 1500. I think he is close to one in the 5000.
Centro and Monzano should be the clear favorites for the 1500, followed by Wheating. Even if Lomong runs, I would put those 3 ahead of him if they were all healthy. I could easily see Lomong finish 4th.
Webb needs things to go right. He needs at least 1, if not several of the following to happen:
An implosion by Monzano
Lomong to run the 5000
Wheating to not be fully healthy
A continued rapid increase in fitness
I think he will have a continued rapid increase in fitness
I thionk Lomong will run the 5000
I don't think Monzano will implode
That leaves Wheating. I think Webb's London ticket goes through Andrew. 2 supreme talents.
Even if all the above fall into place, Torrance and Brown will be right there breathing down his neck. Torrance in particular looks like the biggest dark horse threat.
Webb should not try and win the race at 400 or 500. He will run out of gas. Webb should try and be up front with 300 to go and not go until 150 or 200. He won't make the team if he waits til the last 100, and will run out of gas if he goes too early.
His best chance is to try and go with 200 to go, get good position, and hold off 2 guys who will likely have far superior last 100s (Monzano and Centro, most likely).
This year's OT looks to be the most interesting nationals in a long, long time. I can't remember so much uncertainty across distance events, and so many story lines as there are this year. From supreme talents (Wheating), to comeback stories (Ritz, Teg, Webb) to the guys who have worked their way up (Torrance).
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