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Subject: RE: Kenyan Olympic team - What now?
Emmanuel Mutai is the easiest to eliminate. Crazy to say "easiest" because he was 2nd at 2009 WC, 2nd at London 2009 and 2010, and won London and 2nd at New York last year. Also, I know he had typhoid leading up to this, but he was just to far back.
Lel is eliminated next if he was ever in consideration. He's been 2nd at London the last two years, and from 2006 to 2008 was the best road racer in the world (multiple wins at London, New York and Peachtree). However, he had his Olympic shot in 2008 (5th) and he's also been quite injury prone (missed New York last fall).
I think Makau has to be eliminated next. I know he's the world record holder, but that race was basically a time trial where he had the aid of Haile and his pacemakers. He did beat E. Mutai in Berlin the year before, but then finished 3rd to Emmanuel Mutai and Lel at London last year and then dropped out before halfway at London today.
The next two are the hardest for me to choose between, either Mosop and Kirui. Mosop had a great debut in Boston last year, then smashed the 25k and 30k record at Pre, then broke Wanjiru's record at Chicago. He talked big before finishing only 3rd in Rotterdam last week but his time still was faster than anyone other than Kipsang would run at Boston or London. At the same time though, Kirui is the defending world champion, having won the last two world championships. His time and place from this morning are a bit deceptive. He tried to go with Kipsang and was still in second place and on high 2:05 pace through 40k. I'm really struggling to pick this one. I think Mosop ran better this week, but my gut tells me there's something wrong with leaving the two time defending world champion off the team. In the end though I have to eliminate Kirui and take Mosop.
Geoffry Mutai has to be on the team in my opinion. He was absolutely dominant winning Boston and New York last year. Either of those would easily have beaten Makau's world record on the Berlin course with pacemakers. He ran very well in his cross races earlier this year so his DNF at Boston is almost certainly a fluke due to the heat.
Kipsang is on the team for sure. I don't think anyone can argue with this. Second fastest all time and then absolutely crushed the other contenders this morning.
If I'm AK my team would be Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai and Mosop.
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