Where Your Dreams Become Reality
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Subject: RE: Kellog is more lucky that smart
I saw the leaders at the train depot in Framingham - they were working hard then, and they did "get after it." Saw them too just past 20, pure carnage. The heat was overwhelming, and his prediction underestimated its effect even though the forecast was spot on. As far as being way smarter, I don't know what that means, but I don't think anyone could run 2:08 on that course today.
I guarantee you he is way smarter than you and 99.9% of other people who visit LRC. He is a legitimate genius. I don't mean that in that oh he's really smart; he's like a genius. I mean he is an actual genius. That doesn't mean he's automatically an expert at predicting finishing times though. So whatever you think of his predictions and criticize those if you like. But your statement above is way way wrong.
That said, looking at what he said, I think his actual prediction wasn't so far off. He said "look for the times to be about 5:30 slower than last year if they make an honest race of it and churn out similar performances." They were out at 2:12 high pace for most of it and some guys tried to break away after half way and died...Korir kept it pretty even and ran 2:12 high. So they didn't exactly "get after it" like they did last year.
Also, I think the bigger point is the top 4 this year are definitely no where near as good as the top 4 last year. JK made that prediction for 2:08's thinking Mutai would probably win and put out a similar quality performance as last year. He dropped out. A 2:03 from last year might still have been worth a 2:08:30 today. Just the guys who ran today and the way they ran it might have been 2:05-2:07 range in last year's race.[/quote]
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