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Poster: regionals
Subject: RE: J
Body:

UNCG's chances aren't good at making nationals; NC State and Eastern Kentucky are clearly the best two teams. I'll give them a decent shot at beating Carolina though for the #3 spot. You can't compare the Socon championship times with the ACC championship times. I think a better comparison might be to look at mutual opponents. UNCG #2 and #3 beat Duke's #1 at UVA and Duke's #1 was only 5 seconds behind Carolina's #2 at the ACC meet. Certainly Chelimo can beat Hurysz - and Thompson/Katam have a reasonable chance at beating Cunningham. So it's feasible that UNCG could beat UNC at the 1, 2, and 3 spot. I think Kemboi can stay close to UNC's #4 (24:27 ain't bad). So once again UNCG's chances will depend on Mike Koech. He has been closing the gap on Kemboi each race, so that looks a little promising. But there are obviously other teams besides UNC that beat UNCG - Va Tech, UVA, Duke, Louisville, W&M. If Koech runs well, I like their chances for a top 5 finish. But that probably won't be good enough for an at-large bid.
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