Of course, I'm not comparing the wind to cheating but the "big picture" of self-deception. (However, could possibly be used to compare drug cheats that absolutely deny any cheating)
"This short-term psychological benefit of self-deception, however, can come with longer-term costs: when predicting future performance, participants expect to perform equally well-a lack of awareness that persists even when these inflated expectations prove costly."
This is a useless debate. You will not change the mind of those that ran remarkable PR’s. However, we will see them blow, if they gauge by the same pre-Boston training, and attempt to perform with inflated expectations on a future “test” this fall.
Chance, Zoe, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino, and Dan Ariely. "Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (forthcoming).
Renato. You and I are approaching this thing in the same way. First by looking at their Boston time relative to their PR. And of course you throw out the blow-ups in the metric. Blow ups aren't an indication of the speed of the course they are an indication of individual circumstances, usually fuel crashes, and to a lesser extent, poor fitness.
Add Juan Carlos Cardona, a seasoned veteran with a best of 2:13:29, somehow managed to run 2:12:17 on a slow course....
Obviously it would be unreasonable to to imagine 15 wold class runners to break their PR in any competition, even at Berlin, Amsterdam, or London. On Boston's course, which runs about 2 minutes slower than those speedways it would be unheard of. As it is, 9 of those 15 set PRs on a slow course.
Things that make you go hmmmmm.
You simply cannot extract Mosop and Kamais from the equation because that one ran his debut, and the other (Kamais) you're handing out mulligans on debuts. Do you really believe that either of them would have run any faster than 3 minutes slower than Mondays result without the wind? 2:06:06 and 2:12:50? Really? On a slow course?
9 out of the top 15 set PRs on Boston, a course that runs 2 minutes slow. That's something you'd rarely see in ANY major marathon.
Of the remaining six, three of them missed their PRs by 0.51, 0.59, and 0.37.
So now we have 9 out of 15 runner who PR on a slow course, another three who come within a minute of their PRS.
And three blowups: Yegon, Boirifa and Abe.
I have no doubt that athletes told you that the wind wasn't very strong. Of course, they were running WITH the wind not against it. As runners we already know that, when you go out on a run on the windy day you only feel it when you are running INTO it not against it. But as soon as you turn directions to get back home it;s either in your face and it sucks or is is at your backs and you be crusin'
The weather report doesn't lie.
As far as their reports that the wind was not alwasy in coming from one direction, they are flat out mistaken about what their senses were feeling. The weather report is simple: a strong tailwind from the WSW shifting to the WEST then to the SSW over the course of the marathon. (see the img I've posted) Wind is generated from big pressure gradient differences, with the exception of thunderstorms and tornadoes, the wind simply doesn't change direction much over short periods of time.
What they felt was real. They are running in the same direction of the wind. Of course they aren't going to feel the wind -- no one does when it's pushing you. But running with the wind is a lot like swimming down a river, there will be vortices and eddies along the way. Sometimes it's caused by a rock the river or in the case of wind, a tall building, but the wind is going in one direction, and you still continue to flow with it, despite feeling a gust across your face. That wind across your face doesn't mean the direct changed its just normal fluid dynamics at work.
9 out of the top 15, all seasoned runners set PRs. Three of them by less thana minute, another missed by 2:02, and two of them were blow-ups. On a slow course.
You don't see that happening very often at any marathon. except in 1994, 1983 and 1975.
You don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows.