Fletcher Christian wrote:
I don't know enough about atmospheric conditions to chip in as to whether I agree or disagree with you on this, but is it safe to say that you cannot be convinced that you might be wrong, and that, no matter how the top men from Monday run in their next marathon, you'll use their results as evidence of your position? That just seems clear from your wording, that you don't meerly disagree with others who have a contrary position to yours, but that they're "mistaken."
If Mutai, Gebremariam and/or Mosop run within the range of their times from Monday at Chicago or Berlin, for example, won't you argue that now they're running those times because they're in better condition on a flat, looped course? And if they run a few minutes slower, won't you argue that their results are clear evidence that the conditions in Boston made that performance an outlier? Hall's going to be in a different boat because I would guess his next marathon will be at Houston.
How do you get "is it safe to say that you cannot be convinced that you might be wrong" and "That just seems clear from your wording"? Could you point me to the post(s) that you are referring to?
To me Malmo is arguing strongly that the wind had a large impact (3 - 4 min?). Not sure where I see him saying he couldn't possibly be mistaken.
Speaking for me, I agree that 3 - 4 minutes for the top finishers is about right. I do not claim to be all-knowing however. So to me Mutai and Mosop ran roughly the equivalent of 2:06:30 at Boston (or perhaps 2:04:30 on a fast course). For Geb and Hall these numbers would be less than 2 minutes slower (let's say around 2:08:15 Boston or 2:06:15 fast course).
If that is roughly what these guys can do their next time out I will feel like, yeah I was right all along. If, on the other hand the top two crack a 2:01 in Berlin then I will think, nope I was wrong. And if they are in between, well then there are shades of gray.
How about you? Do you expect a 2:01 at Berlin (remember Boston is a slow course)? What type of performances would have you thinking that maybe you were mistaken and that there really was such a large wind factor?