Where Your Dreams Become Reality
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Subject: RE: Nick Arciniaga 2:08:58 at Rock N Roll San Diego
I'll start at the 2:05:58 prediction from the OP and work my way up.
1) From what I can tell, since professional runners started running this thing, the best time is 2:09:04. I just don't believe he will be able to beat that.
2) While New York may technically be a more difficult course, you can't dismiss the amp you get from running in New York with all those people and all those very good runners. So, with all that, I believe it's very possible that his 2:13 there is close to the top of his ability at least in the short term.
3) As progression in marathons aren't necessarily linear, I see a step back.
4) Finally, regarding his preparation and training at altitude..."the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley."
No explanation? Why would he run slower now that he is training at altitude, on a faster course, than he did last year?[/quote]
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