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Poster: Flagpole
Subject: RE: Nick Arciniaga 2:08:58 at Rock N Roll San Diego
Body:

I'll start at the 2:05:58 prediction from the OP and work my way up.

1) From what I can tell, since professional runners started running this thing, the best time is 2:09:04. I just don't believe he will be able to beat that.

2) While New York may technically be a more difficult course, you can't dismiss the amp you get from running in New York with all those people and all those very good runners. So, with all that, I believe it's very possible that his 2:13 there is close to the top of his ability at least in the short term.

3) As progression in marathons aren't necessarily linear, I see a step back.

4) Finally, regarding his preparation and training at altitude..."the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley."


live from the OC wrote:

[quote]Flagpole wrote:

2:14


No explanation? Why would he run slower now that he is training at altitude, on a faster course, than he did last year?[/quote]
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