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blackorwhite wrote:

Wisconsin should win NCAAs easily (even with Arkansas far stronger that folks would have guessed). The problem is that Wisco created doubt last year by running soooooooooooo badly at NCAAs. This gives other teams a mental edge at the big race (and puts that lingering doubt in the minds of the Wisco guys). Arkansas and Colorado will run better than they should because they actually both think they have a chance to win.

An athlete from the Wisco men's team with whom I spoke this summer did not sound supremely confident about the upcoming season. I found this shocking given their talent. His biggest concern is that they never really figured out what went wrong last year. In my experience that means they will repeat their mistakes.

The question becomes: Is Wisconsin so much better than everybody else that they can run poorly at NCAAs at still win? I believe they are that good this year, but that they weren't last year (obviously).

Regarding Big 10s: Wisconsin should simply have the group of 7 run together in a controlled fashion over the entire 10k course. They would not have an individual winner, but they'd still win by 100 points. Their tempo run pace is probably the same as the all out race pace of anybody else's #2 runner.

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