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|Subject: ||RE: Alan Webb: The OFFICIAL Bowerman Mile Victory Thread|
The absolute best I can root for is a top-3 placing--which is to say, third--and that strikes me as a 2% shot. I'm being real.
You can call me a true Webb fan. I've contributed to a fair share of threads over the past seven years; I'm usually the guy telling the haters that it ain't over till the bald baby wings.....
Once or twice he's come through and I felt vindicated. But generally he doesn't. In fact, he almost never comes through.
Webb is a heartbreaker. It would be an amazing vindication if he came in third, much less first. But I just don't see it. The reasonable best he is likely to do is get beat after a reasonably--and therefore surprisingly, hearteningly--competitive run. That strikes me as a 35% shot.
Much more likely is that he'll go down in flames yet one more time. I put that at a 50% shot.
That leaves a 13% chance that he'll do none of the above, but will just end up two-thirds of the way back. The haters will crow. The Webb-can-still-be-God crowd will say, "He's going to surprise you at the trials."
I love this post - 'Once or twice he's come through and I felt vindicated. But generally he doesn't. In fact, he almost never comes through.' perfect pitch writing.
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