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|Subject: ||What can my athlete run|
I've got a kid who ran a 4:38, 10:09 double today. Temperature in the mid-high 90's, but humidity pretty low (central california) The temps were cooling a bit for the 3200, but the wind was kicking in pretty hard and my guy was alone from 1600 onward. Pace was kind of fast early on (2:23 at 800). Also, he has been training extremely hard the last 2 weeks, basically running through this meet.
His next race is a week from tomorrow at the division 4/5 championship for our section. Top 6 advance from that meet to the section "Masters" meet, which serves as our state qualifier.
His time ranks him 8th in the division right now, but most of the other guys ahead of him ran their fast times off a single. For instance, the guy ranked 5th in our division has a 10:02 under his belt, but has not actually beaten my guy head to head this year. My guy beat the 10:02 guy handily today, when they both doubled up.
The top 3 times in the division are 9:34, 9:41, 9:44. After that it drops to 9:58.
Since the top 6 move on to the masters meet, I'm not sure if I should encourage him to run conservative and just try to advance, saving all his juice for a huge effort at the masters meet, or if I should just tell him to sack up, go with the leaders, and risk dying. Adding to the mix is that there are team title implications. A conservative 4th does a lot more for us than 6.5 great laps then a flameout. Early in the season, I was thinking that 9:55 was a realistic goal, but watching him lately, I'm beginning to believe that he is capable of much more.
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