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|Subject: ||RE: Charles Jock 3:53.44|
socal cush wrote:
Jock's a stud and contra the sub 4 miler Cush, who should know better, if you improve significantly at 1500m, while retaining your 400m speed, you will most likely drop your 800m pr significantly. It's not about the predictor in the 1500m; it's about the fact that he now has more endurance and if he has retained the speed, we'll see that 1:43 this year. My only question is when will we see 1:42 from him?
i'm not sure what you're countering. i think jock will run 1:43--i don't believe this because of his abundant talent or his speed; i believe this because of his balls-to-the-wall fearlessness. it's just that a 3:53 1500 in march will have nothing to do with it (which it sounds like you agree with). i never said anything about endurance (yes, he needs this to run 1:43, but if a 3:53 is an indicator of his endurance, it's a weak one no matter where he's coming from) or speed (yes, he needs this as well, though i don't know if he needs 44 speed). i assume there are more than a few 1:43 guys--everett and parilla (just barely) come to mind--who never even bothered with the 1500, so i'm not disparaging jock's effort or his courage for stepping out of his comfort zone. i suppose a more relevant question may be how many sub-1:43 guys never posted fast 1500s (just to pick a mark out of a hat, sub 3:40)? i know at least two: johnny gray (3:42-ish--i can't find his official modesto time) and borzakovskiy (3:41.53 indoors). any others?
Yes, and the other point is we really don't know if Jock has improved his endurance much. The small sample we have doesn't tell us much. He ran a 1500 last year a bit slower, but this doesn't say much. It would be as if he ran a 14:55 last year and a 14:45 this year. It doesn't say much of anything, as I haven't seen any indicator as to how last year's race played out, and whether he was simply doing a bit of overdistance work at a meet (which it sounds like). Consequently, we can say Jock's a stud but this result isn't the reason we know this, and doesn't tell us he's improved, even if he is likely to be improving anyway.
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